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Moldova's recent Association Agreement with the European Union (EU), which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), represents an important opportunity, as well as challenges. This analytical document has been commissioned by the World Bank Group to provide insights into potential outcomes of the DCFTA and of other trade options that Moldova has, using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model calibrated to its economy. This paper begins by describing the general trends in economic relations between Moldova and the EU over the past 10 years, with an emphasis on trade, as well as Foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor migration. This section includes some additional facts and details that complement the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic. In the second section, the paper presents the main elements of the DCFTA and highlights the trade commitments and concessions that the EU and Moldova undertook. It also includes a short review of available literature on the ex-ante or ex post impact assessments of other Association Agreements between the EU and third countries that have been done using CGE models. The third section presents key features of the DCGE and discusses the data used for assembling the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Then, the main features of the simulated trade scenarios are presented. Finally, this paper discusses the DCGE simulation results, including the effects of the various scenarios on welfare, trade, and economic activity level. Some distributional impacts are also brought into discussion. The final section concludes and makes several recommendations.
Agriculture --- Capital --- Consumers --- Customs Procedures --- Economies of Scale --- Economy --- Financial Sector --- Food & Beverage Industry --- Gdp --- Generalized System of Preferences --- Gross Domestic Product --- Incentives --- Industry --- Inequality --- Outsourcing --- Productivity --- Property Rights --- Purchasing Power --- Regional Integration --- Savings --- Tariffs --- Taxes --- Telecommunications --- Total Factor Productivity --- Trade --- Trade Agreements --- Trade and Integration --- Trade Barriers --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Trade Preferences --- Trade Sanctions --- Wages --- World Trade Organization
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How creditors came to wield unprecedented power over heavily indebted countries-and the dangers this poses to democracyThe European debt crisis has rekindled long-standing debates about the power of finance and the fraught relationship between capitalism and democracy in a globalized world. Why Not Default? unravels a striking puzzle at the heart of these debates-why, despite frequent crises and the immense costs of repayment, do so many heavily indebted countries continue to service their international debts?In this compelling and incisive book, Jerome Roos provides a sweeping investigation of the political economy of sovereign debt and international crisis management. He takes readers from the rise of public borrowing in the Italian city-states to the gunboat diplomacy of the imperialist era and the wave of sovereign defaults during the Great Depression. He vividly describes the debt crises of developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s and sheds new light on the recent turmoil inside the Eurozone-including the dramatic capitulation of Greece's short-lived anti-austerity government to its European creditors in 2015.Drawing on in-depth case studies of contemporary debt crises in Mexico, Argentina, and Greece, Why Not Default? paints a disconcerting picture of the ascendancy of global finance. This important book shows how the profound transformation of the capitalist world economy over the past four decades has endowed private and official creditors with unprecedented structural power over heavily indebted borrowers, enabling them to impose painful austerity measures and enforce uninterrupted debt service during times of crisis-with devastating social consequences and far-reaching implications for democracy.
Debts, Public --- History. --- Amsterdam capital market. --- Argentina. --- Bank of Greece. --- Brady debt restructuring. --- Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. --- European debt crisis. --- Great Depression. --- Greece. --- Greek debt crisis. --- IMF. --- International Monetary Fund. --- King Philip II. --- Latin America. --- Mexico. --- Syriza party. --- bailout. --- bankers' alliance. --- bonds. --- capitalism. --- capitalist economy. --- conditional lending. --- contract enforcement. --- credit class. --- credit repayment. --- credit-money. --- credit. --- creditors. --- cross-border contract. --- debt crisis. --- debt moratorium. --- debt repayment. --- debt restructuring. --- debt service. --- debt servicing. --- debtor compliance. --- debtor discipline. --- default. --- democracy. --- democratic institutions. --- emergency lending. --- enforcement mechanism. --- external debt. --- finance. --- financial crisis. --- fiscal distress. --- foreign credit. --- foreign debt servicing. --- foreign investment. --- global finance. --- globalization. --- intermediary. --- international creditors. --- international crisis management. --- international debts. --- international lending. --- internationalization. --- lending cycles. --- long-term reputation. --- market discipline. --- power. --- public debt. --- repayment. --- short-term credit. --- social costs. --- solvency. --- sovereign debt crises. --- sovereign debt repayment. --- sovereign debt. --- sovereign default. --- spillover costs. --- structural power. --- syndicated lending. --- trade sanctions.
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