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An export-oriented development strategy fostered the Asia Pacific region's economic success, making it the fastest growing region in the world. In recent years, despite waning demand from the crisis-hit Western economies, the accelerating demand from China boosted intraregional trade in Asia. Although China's Asian trading partners benefit from increasing exports to China, this stronger linkage with China has made them more vulnerable to the risk of a Chinese slowdown. This paper examines the impact of a negative Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) shock on Asian economies by employing the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, using the dataset through the third quarter of 2014 for 33 countries. The analysis finds that a negative Chinese GDP shock impacts commodity exporters, such as Indonesia, to the greatest extent, reflecting both demand and terms of trade shocks. Export-dependent countries in the East Asian production cycle, such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, are also severely affected. The analysis also finds that a negative shock to China's real GDP would not only have an adverse effect on the price of crude oil, as some previous studies have also shown, but also on the prices of metals and agricultural products. The study also investigates the impact of a potential negative shock to the real GDP of the United States on Asian countries, and determines that although the U.S. economy has a larger influence on Asian economies than China's economy, the Asian countries are more exposed to China than ever through increased economic ties.

Currencies and exchange rates --- Economic theory & research --- Emerging markets --- Empirical macroeconomics --- Finance and financial sector development --- Growth debt markets --- GVAR --- International business cycles --- Macroeconomics and economic --- Markets & market access --- Private sector development --- Sovereign risk analysis --- Trade linkage

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Latin America's historically low saving rates and sub-par growth performance raise the question of whether the region should save more to grow faster. Economists generally resist acknowledging a policy-exploitable causal connection going from saving to growth because domestic saving is perceived to be fully endogenous, optimally determined, or fully substitutable by foreign saving. However, to the extent that these three assumptions do not hold, three channels can be established through which higher domestic saving-by curbing persistent current account deficits-can promote medium-term growth. The channels are first, a real interest rate channel, whereby higher saving reduces the cost of capital and enhances macro sustainability; second, a real exchange rate channel, through which higher saving leads to a more competitive real exchange rate; and third, an endogenous saving channel, whereby saving follows growth and, hence, subsequently compounds the effect of the first two channels. Econometric evidence supports all three channels and suggests that the lower-saving countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially those with recurrently weak balance of payments and persistent domestic demand pressures on the non-tradable sector, would benefit the most from boosting their saving rates.

Access to finance --- Currencies and exchange rates --- Current account deficits --- Debt markets --- Economic theory & research --- Emerging markets --- Exchange rate appreciation or depreciation --- Finance and financial sector development --- Growth --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Private sector development --- Real exchange rate determination --- Saving --- Sovereign risk premium

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This paper reviews the current state of affairs and thinking on external risk management for developing countries. It tries to identify the reasons behind the limited risk management by sovereigns. Perverse incentives arising from a too generous international safety net, limited access to international financial markets by developing countries arising from low creditworthiness, a limited supply of financial risk management tools suited to developing countries, and a poor supply of skills have inhibited risk management. Another constraint has been the limited attention given to the strategic objectives for risk management. Going forward, the paper identifies actions by international financial markets, countries and international financial institutions that can help improve risk management.

Bank Policy --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Commodity Prices --- Creditworthiness --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Developing Countries --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Financial Risk --- Global Capital --- Global Capital Markets --- Instruments --- Insurance and Risk Mitigation --- International Financial Institutions --- International Financial Markets --- International Markets --- Investment --- Labor Policies --- Natural Disasters --- Non Bank Financial Institutions --- Private Sector Development --- Risk Management --- Risk Management Tools --- Safety Net --- Social Protections and Labor --- Sovereign Debt --- Sovereign Risk --- Stock

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Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing - and recovering - their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, “this time is different” - claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes - from medieval currency debasements to today’s subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much - or how little - we have learned. Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts - as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur. An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.

Financial crises --- Fiscal policy --- Business cycles --- 338.12 --- 338 <09> --- -Fiscal policy --- -Business cycles --- -Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Conjunctuurbewegingen. Economische fluctuatie. Investeringscycli. Conjunctuuranalyse. Conjunctuuronderzoek. Conjunctuurprognoses --- Economische geschiedenis --- Government policy --- -Conjunctuurbewegingen. Economische fluctuatie. Investeringscycli. Conjunctuuranalyse. Conjunctuuronderzoek. Conjunctuurprognoses --- 338 <09> Economische geschiedenis --- 338.12 Conjunctuurbewegingen. Economische fluctuatie. Investeringscycli. Conjunctuuranalyse. Conjunctuuronderzoek. Conjunctuurprognoses --- -338 <09> Economische geschiedenis --- Economic cycles --- #SBIB:33H15 --- 333.613 --- 333.645 --- monetaire crisis --- 336.7 <09> --- bankwezen --- sectoriële analyse --- -338.542 --- Economie: geld en krediet --- Activiteiten van de nationale en internationale markten. Beursnoteringen van aandelen en obligaties. --- Speculatie op de beurs. --- crise monetaire --- Geschiedenis van het bankwezen --- Financiële crisis --- 336.7 <09> Geschiedenis van het bankwezen --- #SBIB:33H072 --- AA / International- internationaal --- US / United States of America - USA - Verenigde Staten - Etats Unis --- 331.162.1 --- 333.481 --- 333.17 --- histoire economique --- marches financiers --- crise financiere --- economische geschiedenis --- Wereldmarkten --- Geschiedenis van de financiële markten. --- Monetaire crisissen, hervormingen, saneringen en stabilisering. --- Crises, saneringen en hervormingen van het bankwezen. --- financiele markten --- financiele crisis --- -Tax policy --- 338.542 --- Geschiedenis van de financiële markten --- Crises, saneringen en hervormingen van het bankwezen --- Monetaire crisissen, hervormingen, saneringen en stabilisering --- Activiteiten van de nationale en internationale markten. Beursnoteringen van aandelen en obligaties --- Speculatie op de beurs --- Money. Monetary policy --- Financial crises - Case studies --- Fiscal policy - Case studies --- Business cycles - Case studies --- Ben Bernanke. --- Big Five Crises. --- Big Six Crises. --- Charles Kindleberger. --- GDF. --- GDP growth. --- GFD. --- IMF. --- Inside Job. --- International Monetary Fund. --- League of Nations. --- Manias, Panics and Crashes. --- Margin Call. --- Second Great Contraction. --- The Big Short. --- Too Big to Fail. --- World Bank. --- bailouts. --- baking crises. --- banking panic. --- banking reforms. --- capital mobility. --- central banks. --- contagion. --- credit cycles. --- currency crashes. --- currency debasements. --- debt crises. --- debt cycles. --- debt defaults. --- debt intolerance. --- debt. --- defaults. --- deflation. --- domestic creditors. --- domestic debt. --- domestic default. --- economic downturn. --- equity. --- exchange rate crises. --- external default. --- financial combustion. --- financial crisis. --- great contraction of the 1930s. --- high inflation. --- inflation crises. --- inflation tax. --- medieval currency crisis. --- medieval currency debasements. --- multilateral lending. --- public debt. --- sovereign default. --- sovereign external debt crises. --- sovereign lending. --- sovereign risk. --- stock markets. --- subprime crisis. --- subprime mortgage. --- Crises financières --- Politique fiscale --- Cycles économiques --- études de cas --- Crises financières --- Cycles économiques --- études de cas