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Considerations of risk and vulnerability are key to understanding the dynamics of poverty in rural Malawi. This study measures vulnerability to consumption shortfalls and analyzes its sources using a two-period panel of 2,789 households, drawn from the 2010 Third Integrated Household Survey and the 2013 Integrated Household Panel Survey. The results show that in 2010 two-fifths of all households had a chance of at least 40 percent of falling below the poverty line in the future. The results show that many households in rural Malawi are vulnerable to poverty, although, as with many other studies of rural areas in other countries, much of the vulnerability is caused by chronic poverty. Nonetheless, risks, particularly rainfall and loss of off-farm employment, are also important in explaining why poor households remain poor, and why some non-poor households are more likely to fall into poverty in the next period. Household wealth and agricultural assets can protect households from falling into poverty and reduce the severity of the fall when shocks occur. However, there is little evidence to suggest that other strategies to reduce vulnerability are effective.

Agricultural Risks --- Poverty --- Shocks --- Vulnerability

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How do labor income shocks affect household investment in upper secondary and tertiary schooling? Using longitudinal data from 2005-15 for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, this paper explores the effect of a negative household income shock on the enrollment status of youth ages 15 to 25. The findings suggest that negative income shocks significantly increase the likelihood that students in upper secondary and tertiary school exit school in Argentina and Brazil, but not in Mexico. For the three countries, the analysis finds evidence that youth who drop out due to a household income shock have worse employment outcomes than similar youth who exit school without a household income shock. Differences in labor markets and safety net programs likely play an important role in the decision to exit school as well as the employment outcomes of those who exit across these three countries.

Education --- Gender --- Income Shocks --- Social Development --- Youth Employment

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Oil discoveries can constitute a major positive and exogenous shock to economic activity, but the resource curse hypothesis would suggest they might also be detrimental to growth over the long run. This paper utilizes a new methodology for estimating growth underperformance to examine the extent to which discoveries depress the growth path of a country following a discovery and prior to production starting. The study finds causal evidence of a significant negative effect on short-run growth and growth relative to counterfactual forecast growth in countries with weak institutions, creating growth disappointments prior to private and public resource windfalls. This effect is termed the presource curse. For a giant oil or gas discovery in 1988-2010, the study estimates an average growth disappointment effect of 0.83 percentage points, measured as the average annual gap between forecast and actual growth over the five years following a discovery. Further, the estimated effect varies by the size of the discovery, increasing to a 1.77 percentage points gap in the case of super giant discoveries. The estimated effect is inversely related to the quality of political institutions, and driven by countries with lower institutional quality at the time of the discovery, consistent with the similar long-run results documented in the resource curse literature. For countries with below-threshold institutional quality, the growth disappointment effect is larger, measured as 1.35 percentage points in annual terms. There is no measured growth disappointment effect for countries with strong institutions. Using the synthetic control method, we confirm our findings for a selection of countries above and below the institutional quality threshold. The findings suggest that studies of the resource curse that focus only on the effects of resource exploitation or examine only long-run growth effects may overlook important short-run growth disappointments following discoveries, and the way countries respond to news shocks.

Economic Growth --- Forecast Errors --- Forecasting --- Institutions --- News Shocks --- Resource Curse

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Sex ratios at birth rose sharply in the South Caucasus countries after 1991, but recent data indicate that this trend is turning. What caused this rise, and what can be done to accelerate its normalization? Traditional kinship systems in the region are similar to those of other settings with sex-selection: structured for collaboration among male kin and dependence only on sons, not daughters. Yet it is anomalous to find sex-selection in a region that under the Soviet Union has for long been substantially urbanized and gender-equitable in public life-factors associated with declines in sex-selection elsewhere. Sex-selection manifested itself only after the sudden economic and governance meltdown following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Jobs, basic services, and social protection mechanisms unraveled. People scrambled for coping mechanisms, and sons offer the traditional form of support under uncertainty. Basic services, pensions, and safety nets have been rebuilt, but the process involved years of policy changes. Strengthening these institutions, and maintaining credible continuity of expectations in them, is critical to accelerating normalization of sex ratios.

Economic Shocks --- Gender --- Gender & Development --- Gender & Health --- Gender & Law --- Governance --- Health --- Health Monitoring & Evaluation --- Population --- Population Policies --- Poverty --- Social Protection

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Sex ratios at birth rose sharply in the South Caucasus countries after 1991, but recent data indicate that this trend is turning. What caused this rise, and what can be done to accelerate its normalization? Traditional kinship systems in the region are similar to those of other settings with sex-selection: structured for collaboration among male kin and dependence only on sons, not daughters. Yet it is anomalous to find sex-selection in a region that under the Soviet Union has for long been substantially urbanized and gender-equitable in public life-factors associated with declines in sex-selection elsewhere. Sex-selection manifested itself only after the sudden economic and governance meltdown following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Jobs, basic services, and social protection mechanisms unraveled. People scrambled for coping mechanisms, and sons offer the traditional form of support under uncertainty. Basic services, pensions, and safety nets have been rebuilt, but the process involved years of policy changes. Strengthening these institutions, and maintaining credible continuity of expectations in them, is critical to accelerating normalization of sex ratios.

Economic Shocks --- Gender --- Gender & Development --- Gender & Health --- Gender & Law --- Governance --- Health --- Health Monitoring & Evaluation --- Population --- Population Policies --- Poverty --- Social Protection