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This paper examines why some countries experience economic recoveries without pick-up of bank credit (credit-less) and how different this recovery pattern is from the case where credit is increased as an economy recovers (credit-with). To answer these questions, the paper uses quarterly data covering 96 countries and identifies 272 recovery episodes. It finds that more than 25 percent of all recoveries are credit-less and around 45 percent of all credit-less recoveries occurred in 2009-10. It also finds that output and investment growth tends to be lower in credit-less events but, by eight quarters after the trough date, the gap between credit-less and credit-with episodes is mostly exhausted. Results of the probit estimations show that the size of the downturn and the extent of external adjustment are associated with the likelihood of credit-less recoveries. Moreover, fiscal loosening tends to be related to credit-less events while monetary easing and a country's decision to seek an International Monetary Fund-supported program reduce the probability of credit-less recoveries. Finally, the model suggests that many countries in the Europe and Central Asia region were likely to experience credit-less recoveries following the global financial crisis in 2008/09. What is more worrisome for them is the fact that they are facing another negative external shock.
Credit --- Fiscal policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary policies --- Probit model --- Recoveries
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Learning from experience to improve future infrastructure public-private partnerships is a focal issue for policy makers, financiers, implementers, and private sector stakeholders. An extensive body of case studies and "lessons learned" aims to improve the likelihood of success and attempts to avoid future contract failures across sectors and geographies. This paper examines whether countries do, indeed, learn from experience to improve the probability of success of public-private partnerships at the national level. The purview of the paper is not to diagnose learning across all aspects of public-private partnerships globally, but rather to focus on whether experience has an effect on the most extreme cases of public-private partnership contract failure, premature contract cancellation. The analysis utilizes mixed-effects probit regression combined with spline models to test empirically whether general public-private partnership experience has an impact on reducing the chances of contract cancellation for future projects. The results confirm what the market intuitively knows, that is, that public-private partnership experience reduces the likelihood of contract cancellation. But the results also provide a perhaps less intuitive finding: the benefits of learning are typically concentrated in the first few public-private partnership deals. Moreover, the results show that the probability of cancellation varies across sectors and suggests the relative complexity of water public-private partnerships compared with energy and transport projects. An estimated USD 1.5 billion per year could have been saved with interventions and support to reduce cancellations in less experienced countries (those with fewer than 23 prior public-private partnerships).
Contract Cancellation --- Linear Spline --- Mixed-Effect Probit Model --- PPP --- Public-Private Partnership
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In deze paper werd er onderzoek gedaan naar de ratingmodellen van de drie grote ratingbureaus S&P, Moody's en Fitch. In de huidige economische conjunctuur met veel downgrades in de afgelopen jaren, is het belangrijk na te gaan of deze ratingbureaus wel correct en consistent zijn in het raten van landen. We hebben als hypothese gesteld dat ratingbureaus niet altijd een rechtvaardige rating aan landen toekennen op basis van ons model. Om de ratingmodellen van de drie ratingbureaus te bepalen, hebben we ons gebaseerd op de belangrijkste variabelen om een rating te bepalen. Deze variabelen zijn BBP per capita - wat later werd opgenomen als BBP groei -, inflatie, politieke stabiliteit, buitenlandse schuld / BBP en de vertraagde van de rating. Het schatten gebeurt via een ordered probit model.
Economische systemen. --- Financiële crisis. --- Fitch. --- Moody's. --- Ordered probit model. --- P360-anorganische-chemie. --- P400-fysicochemie. --- Ratingbureaus. --- Ratings. --- S183-conjunctuureconomie. --- Sovereign credit rating. --- Sovereign credit ratings. --- Standard & Poor's.
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Several problems related to violence, grievances, and states’ lack of legitimacy and capacity to manage economic, social, and political issues are clustered together as an interactive structure in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region. The effect of one of these problems is difficult to identify in the absence of analyses of the others. Global generalisations on the effects of these problems can bring us closer to the understanding of state fragility and the associated problems in the MENA region, although the study of MENA specifically also reveals region- and sub-region-specific features. Some of them pertain to the MENA region only, whereas others help develop the understanding and sophistication of global generalisations. This book offers a much-needed overview and several explanations on the otherwise confusing triangular problems of state fragility, grievance, and conflict, focusing on one of the conflict hotspots of the world. It compiles expertise on the triangular relationship between fragility, grievances, and conflict of an international MENA Social Policy Network. In addition to the analyses, two datasets are referenced, on which some of the book’s chapters are based.
Humanities --- Social interaction --- state fragility --- conflict --- MENA --- Middle East --- failed states --- weak states --- conflict fatalities --- corruption --- informal employment --- social security --- state effectiveness --- Maghreb countries --- individual preferences --- discrete choice model --- Arab Spring --- participation --- protesting --- probit model --- Iraq --- terrorism --- violent extremism --- Social Identity --- threat --- fragmentation --- grievances --- Shia --- Sunni --- factionalism --- rebel governance --- Hamas --- Gaza --- Palestine --- informal institutions --- social contract --- social protection --- Middle East and North Africa --- state–society relations --- protection --- provision --- government legitimacy --- service delivery --- state legitimacy --- social policy --- social expenditure --- mediation --- PH theory --- Israel --- ripeness --- subsidy reform --- Middle East and North Africa (MENA) --- Morocco --- Egypt --- Iran --- political participation --- n/a --- state-society relations
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Several problems related to violence, grievances, and states’ lack of legitimacy and capacity to manage economic, social, and political issues are clustered together as an interactive structure in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region. The effect of one of these problems is difficult to identify in the absence of analyses of the others. Global generalisations on the effects of these problems can bring us closer to the understanding of state fragility and the associated problems in the MENA region, although the study of MENA specifically also reveals region- and sub-region-specific features. Some of them pertain to the MENA region only, whereas others help develop the understanding and sophistication of global generalisations. This book offers a much-needed overview and several explanations on the otherwise confusing triangular problems of state fragility, grievance, and conflict, focusing on one of the conflict hotspots of the world. It compiles expertise on the triangular relationship between fragility, grievances, and conflict of an international MENA Social Policy Network. In addition to the analyses, two datasets are referenced, on which some of the book’s chapters are based.
state fragility --- conflict --- MENA --- Middle East --- failed states --- weak states --- conflict fatalities --- corruption --- informal employment --- social security --- state effectiveness --- Maghreb countries --- individual preferences --- discrete choice model --- Arab Spring --- participation --- protesting --- probit model --- Iraq --- terrorism --- violent extremism --- Social Identity --- threat --- fragmentation --- grievances --- Shia --- Sunni --- factionalism --- rebel governance --- Hamas --- Gaza --- Palestine --- informal institutions --- social contract --- social protection --- Middle East and North Africa --- state–society relations --- protection --- provision --- government legitimacy --- service delivery --- state legitimacy --- social policy --- social expenditure --- mediation --- PH theory --- Israel --- ripeness --- subsidy reform --- Middle East and North Africa (MENA) --- Morocco --- Egypt --- Iran --- political participation --- n/a --- state-society relations
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Several problems related to violence, grievances, and states’ lack of legitimacy and capacity to manage economic, social, and political issues are clustered together as an interactive structure in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region. The effect of one of these problems is difficult to identify in the absence of analyses of the others. Global generalisations on the effects of these problems can bring us closer to the understanding of state fragility and the associated problems in the MENA region, although the study of MENA specifically also reveals region- and sub-region-specific features. Some of them pertain to the MENA region only, whereas others help develop the understanding and sophistication of global generalisations. This book offers a much-needed overview and several explanations on the otherwise confusing triangular problems of state fragility, grievance, and conflict, focusing on one of the conflict hotspots of the world. It compiles expertise on the triangular relationship between fragility, grievances, and conflict of an international MENA Social Policy Network. In addition to the analyses, two datasets are referenced, on which some of the book’s chapters are based.
Humanities --- Social interaction --- state fragility --- conflict --- MENA --- Middle East --- failed states --- weak states --- conflict fatalities --- corruption --- informal employment --- social security --- state effectiveness --- Maghreb countries --- individual preferences --- discrete choice model --- Arab Spring --- participation --- protesting --- probit model --- Iraq --- terrorism --- violent extremism --- Social Identity --- threat --- fragmentation --- grievances --- Shia --- Sunni --- factionalism --- rebel governance --- Hamas --- Gaza --- Palestine --- informal institutions --- social contract --- social protection --- Middle East and North Africa --- state-society relations --- protection --- provision --- government legitimacy --- service delivery --- state legitimacy --- social policy --- social expenditure --- mediation --- PH theory --- Israel --- ripeness --- subsidy reform --- Middle East and North Africa (MENA) --- Morocco --- Egypt --- Iran --- political participation
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The goal of this Special Issue is to discuss new challenges in the simulation and management problems of both traditional and innovative bike-sharing systems, to ultimately encourage the competitiveness and attractiveness of BSSs, and contribute to the further promotion of sustainable mobility. We have selected thirteen papers for publication in this Special Issue.
Technology: general issues --- bike sharing --- rebalancing --- clustering --- optimization --- sustainability --- bike-sharing --- public bicycles --- shared use mobility --- cycling --- sustainable transport --- Free-Floating Bike-sharing Systems --- causes of disorderly parking --- factor analysis --- sustainable mode of transportation --- bike-sharing system --- public bicycle --- complex network --- network structure --- e-bike sharing --- transport sustainability --- mobile depot --- cruise tourism --- ordered probit model --- bikeway network design --- selective nodes --- elimination heuristic --- demand coverage --- bike share --- cycling safety --- night-time visibility --- cognitive difference between cyclists and drivers --- free-floating bike-sharing system --- influence factor --- social-psychological variables --- intention --- use frequency --- post-sharing era --- bikesharing --- brand choice --- conditional Logit model --- sustainable development --- public bike sharing --- cluster analysis --- categorization --- data collection --- sharing economy --- stated preference --- discrete choice models --- bike-sharing rebalancing problem --- multi-energy mixed fleets --- traffic restrictions --- simulated annealing --- variable neighborhood structures --- BSS station efficiency --- data envelopment analysis --- spatial analysis in transport --- bike-sharing station --- n/a
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The goal of this Special Issue is to discuss new challenges in the simulation and management problems of both traditional and innovative bike-sharing systems, to ultimately encourage the competitiveness and attractiveness of BSSs, and contribute to the further promotion of sustainable mobility. We have selected thirteen papers for publication in this Special Issue.
bike sharing --- rebalancing --- clustering --- optimization --- sustainability --- bike-sharing --- public bicycles --- shared use mobility --- cycling --- sustainable transport --- Free-Floating Bike-sharing Systems --- causes of disorderly parking --- factor analysis --- sustainable mode of transportation --- bike-sharing system --- public bicycle --- complex network --- network structure --- e-bike sharing --- transport sustainability --- mobile depot --- cruise tourism --- ordered probit model --- bikeway network design --- selective nodes --- elimination heuristic --- demand coverage --- bike share --- cycling safety --- night-time visibility --- cognitive difference between cyclists and drivers --- free-floating bike-sharing system --- influence factor --- social-psychological variables --- intention --- use frequency --- post-sharing era --- bikesharing --- brand choice --- conditional Logit model --- sustainable development --- public bike sharing --- cluster analysis --- categorization --- data collection --- sharing economy --- stated preference --- discrete choice models --- bike-sharing rebalancing problem --- multi-energy mixed fleets --- traffic restrictions --- simulated annealing --- variable neighborhood structures --- BSS station efficiency --- data envelopment analysis --- spatial analysis in transport --- bike-sharing station --- n/a
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The goal of this Special Issue is to discuss new challenges in the simulation and management problems of both traditional and innovative bike-sharing systems, to ultimately encourage the competitiveness and attractiveness of BSSs, and contribute to the further promotion of sustainable mobility. We have selected thirteen papers for publication in this Special Issue.
Technology: general issues --- bike sharing --- rebalancing --- clustering --- optimization --- sustainability --- bike-sharing --- public bicycles --- shared use mobility --- cycling --- sustainable transport --- Free-Floating Bike-sharing Systems --- causes of disorderly parking --- factor analysis --- sustainable mode of transportation --- bike-sharing system --- public bicycle --- complex network --- network structure --- e-bike sharing --- transport sustainability --- mobile depot --- cruise tourism --- ordered probit model --- bikeway network design --- selective nodes --- elimination heuristic --- demand coverage --- bike share --- cycling safety --- night-time visibility --- cognitive difference between cyclists and drivers --- free-floating bike-sharing system --- influence factor --- social-psychological variables --- intention --- use frequency --- post-sharing era --- bikesharing --- brand choice --- conditional Logit model --- sustainable development --- public bike sharing --- cluster analysis --- categorization --- data collection --- sharing economy --- stated preference --- discrete choice models --- bike-sharing rebalancing problem --- multi-energy mixed fleets --- traffic restrictions --- simulated annealing --- variable neighborhood structures --- BSS station efficiency --- data envelopment analysis --- spatial analysis in transport --- bike-sharing station
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Many people live in rural areas in tropical regions. Rural development is not merely a contribution to the growth of individual countries. It can be a way to reduce poverty and to increase access to water, health care, and education. Sustainable rural development can also help stop deforestation and reduce livestock, which generate most of the greenhouse gas emissions. However, efforts to achieve a sustainable rural development are often thwarted by floods, drought, heat waves, and hurricanes, which local communities are not very prepared to tackle. Agricultural practices and local planning are still not very risk-informed. These deficiencies are particularly acute in tropical regions, where many Least Developed Countries are located and where there is, however, great potential for rural development. This Special Issue contains 22 studies on best practices for risk awareness; on local risk reduction; on several cases of soil depletion, water pollution, and sustainable access to safe water; and on agronomy, earth sciences, ecology, economy, environmental engineering, geomatics, materials science, and spatial and regional planning in 12 tropical countries.
Research & information: general --- climate change --- contingency plan --- flood risk --- local development plan --- risk management --- sustainable rural development --- agricultural drought --- heavy rains --- hydrological drought --- meteorological drought --- risk assessment --- Sahel --- early warning --- hydrology --- local communities --- Niger river basin --- rural development --- disaster risk reduction --- official development assistance --- public participation --- risk tracking --- Sendai framework --- sustainable development --- dataset validation --- precipitation --- Kenya --- local climate --- ASALs --- Quantile Mapping --- climate services --- local drought risk reduction --- smallholder farmers --- agrometeorological forecast --- Niger --- natural resources --- Mauritania --- resource management --- regional planning --- participatory approach --- EO data --- water resources --- sustainable management --- local development --- water for food security --- building consolidation --- extreme precipitations --- flood exposure --- satellite remote sensing --- settlement dynamics --- vulnerability --- agriculture --- Nitrate runoff --- real-time monitoring --- water quality --- rural area --- scant data --- nitrate contamination --- water --- flood --- Sinai Peninsula --- flash flood --- CORDEX --- water harvesting --- indigenous farmers --- multinational corporations --- systems thinking --- Nigeria --- sub-Saharan Africa --- drought --- rainfall regime --- soil biogeochemistry --- natural disasters --- flooding --- flood vulnerability --- inequality --- risk premium --- expected annual damages --- certainty equivalent annual damages --- equity weight expected annual damages --- equity weight certainty equivalent annual damage --- soil erosion --- Great Rift Valley Lakes --- ASAL --- desertification --- groundwater resources --- fluoride --- main Ethiopian Rift Valley --- developing countries --- welfare --- panel probit model --- adoption --- propensity score matching --- water crisis in Africa --- water collection and retention systems --- sand dam --- migration --- risk communication --- volcanic hazards --- social risk perception --- resilience --- demonstrator --- scenario --- multi-risk analysis --- climate-smart agriculture --- socio-ecological systems --- extension --- Belize --- milpa --- food security --- sustainability --- photovoltaic energy --- desalination system --- SIDS --- CO2 emissions --- LCOW --- LEOW --- n/a
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