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We study the properties of a test that determines whether two time series comove. The test computes a simple nonparametric statistic for “concordance,” which describes the proportion of time that the cycles of two series spend in the same phase. We establish the size and power properties of this test. As an illustration, the procedures are applied to output series from selected major industrial countries. We find limited evidence of widespread concordance for these countries.

Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Economic growth --- Public finance & taxation --- Business cycles --- Public expenditure review --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- United States

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This paper assesses the efficiency of education expenditure in Portugal and delineates a possible agenda for reform. Portugal’s low educational performance has coincided with the highest level of primary and secondary education expenditure to GDP in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), suggesting considerable inefficiency. Empirical results from the application of a nonparametric technique for production frontier estimation (Free Disposable Hull analysis) support this view. Among the reforms that could be considered to raise educational efficiency are the adoption of a goal-oriented management and incentive system; establishment of minimum student/teacher ratios; and an easing of employment and work rules governing public school teachers.

Public Finance --- Demography --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- National Government Expenditures and Education --- Education: General --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Demographic Economics: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Education --- Public finance & taxation --- Population & demography --- Education spending --- Aging --- Population and demographics --- Public expenditure review --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Population aging --- Population --- Portugal

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Both sides of the institutions and growth debate have resorted largely to microeconometric techniques in testing hypotheses. In this paper, I build a panel structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for a short panel of 119 countries over 10 years and find support for the institutions hypothesis. Controlling for individual fixed effects, I find that exogenous shocks to a proxy for institutional quality have a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP per capita. On average, a 1 percent shock in institutional quality leads to a peak 1.7 percent increase in GDP per capita after six years. Results are robust to using a different proxy for institutional quality. There are different dynamics for advanced economies and developing countries. This suggests diminishing returns to institutional quality improvements.

Economic development --- Institutions (Philosophy) --- Philosophy --- Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Institutions and Growth --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- Estimation --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Estimation techniques --- Vector autoregression --- Structural vector autoregression --- Personal income --- Econometric analysis --- National accounts --- Econometric models --- Income --- United States

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We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- Financial Forecasting and Simulation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banking --- Finance --- Systemic risk --- Interbank markets --- Consumer loans --- Loans --- Banks and banking --- Financial risk management --- International finance

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The conventional growth-accounting approach to estimating the sources of economic growth requires unrealistically strong assumptions about the competitiveness of factor markets and the form of the underlying aggregate production function. This paper outlines a new approach utilizing nonparametric derivative estimation techniques that does not require imposing these restrictive assumptions. The results for East Asian countries show that output elasticities of capital and labor are different from the income shares of these factors, and that the growth of total factor productivity over the period 1960-95 has been an important factor in the overall growth performance of these countries.

Econometrics --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Labor Economics: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Estimation --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Labour --- income economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Total factor productivity --- Labor share --- Estimation techniques --- Income --- Econometric analysis --- National accounts --- Industrial productivity --- Labor economics --- Wages --- Econometric models --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China