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MULTI ACTOR MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS (MAMCA) -- 911.10 --- Transport. Traffic

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Governments worldwide face the difficult challenge of deciding which infrastructure projects to prioritize and select for implementation, given the limits of available funding and the need to attain their developmental goals. The key objective of this report is to conduct a comparative exercise between the World Bank's Infrastructure Prioritization Framework, a multicriteria analysis-based methodology to project prioritization, and a more complex cost-benefit analysis-based approach. The report focuses on Chile, which has a well-institutionalized evaluation process that uses cost-benefit analysis to assess projects on their quality and ability to generate value for money. The analysis compares the results of the Infrastructure Prioritization Framework alongside Chile's current cost-benefit analysis-based and multicriteria analysis approaches to the same subsets of projects in the road transport and water reservoir subsectors, respectively. The results show that the Infrastructure Prioritization Framework has application beyond its original proposition and can complement a traditional cost-benefit analysis by directly considering social and environmental policy goals that are otherwise difficult to quantify in a cost-benefit analysis. The analysis also finds that in Chile there is a discrepancy between the stated goals and objectives of the appraisal system and the actual implementation. In the case of transport sector projects, there is an evident deviation between cost-benefit analysis-based selection policy and actual decisions made for project implementation. In the case of water catchment selection, there is a bias toward projects with higher financial-economic performance as compared to social-environmental performance, despite policy intentions to afford consideration to environmental and social development goals.

Hydrology --- Infrastructure Planning --- Infrastructure Prioritization --- Multi-Criteria Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Principal Component Analysis --- Public Investment --- Social Development & Poverty --- Transport --- Water --- Water Resources

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Decision-making is part of everyday life. In theory, making a decision consists in assessing all the choices, their outcomes, and sometimes their probability of occurrence and then making the best choice according to the decision maker's preferences. For instance, should employees commute by bus or by car? If they take the bus, they will depend on the location of the bus stop and bus schedule and may arrive late at work if the bus is delayed. However, this option is more environmentally friendly. On the other side, the car offers more flexibility but is less environmentally friendly. According to whether they are concerned with the environment or flexibility, they will prefer one option to the other. However, in reality, decision-making is more complex. Indeed, making choices in the real world implies considering uncertainties during the decision process. In addition, more than one person is involved in the decision-making process which makes the final decision more complicated to make as each person has different preferences. Companies such as Safran Aero Boosters (SAB), an engineering company specialising in aerospace parts such as boosters, are affected by the latter type of decision-making process. 

This thesis identifies and models the decision-making problem within research and development in the (new) technologies department of the SAB company. To model this problem, a decision support tool, called Crystal Ball Decision Tool is proposed. Developed in Microsoft Excel and with the Palisade DecisionSuite Tools add-ins, Crystal Ball Decision Tool makes use of Monte Carlo simulation to handle uncertainties and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making methods to satisfy the different person's preferences within the decision-making process. This tool can support SAB employees in their decision-making by analysing technologies and comparing several technologies/projects, among which prioritisation must be made. In addition, Crystal Ball Decision Too allows centralising the decision-making process in one single tool. 

The decision support tool's abilities to analyse and compare technologies are then tested on three real SAB projects. Although improvements can be made to this very first version of the tool within the SAB company, the results are encouraging and show that the Crystal Ball Decision Tool fulfils its duty to assist in decision-making.

Decision support tool, Multi-criteria decision-making, Uncertainty, Risk --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance --- Ingénierie, informatique & technologie > Sciences informatiques --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Stratégie & innovation

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The dynamics of systems have proven to be very powerful tools in understanding the behavior of different natural phenomena throughout the last two centuries. However, the attributes of natural systems are observed to deviate from their classical states due to the effect of different types of uncertainties. Actually, randomness and impreciseness are the two major sources of uncertainties in natural systems. Randomness is modeled by different stochastic processes and impreciseness could be modeled by fuzzy sets, rough sets, Dempster–Shafer theory, etc.

Research & information: general --- Mathematics & science --- Fuzzy MARCOS --- Fuzzy PIPRECIA --- traffic risk --- TFN --- MCDM --- dual-rotor --- multi-frequency excitation --- non-intrusive calculation --- metamodel --- NDSL model --- AHP --- criteria weights --- pairwise comparisons --- AES --- PC --- MIMO discrete-time system --- state feedback and output feedback --- parameter dependence --- D numbers --- fuzzy sets --- DEMATEL --- multi-criteria decision-making --- multi-criteria optimization --- RAFSI method --- performance comparison --- rank reversal --- Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) --- wavelet transform --- GARCH --- LLA --- LDA --- KNN --- BWM --- BWM-I --- multi-criteria --- renewable energy --- the CCSD method --- the ITARA method --- the MARCOS method --- stackers --- logistics --- ensemble techniques --- data mining --- classification and discrimination --- linear regression --- applied mathematics general --- prediction theory --- theory of mathematical modeling --- medical applications --- empathic building --- fuzzy grey cognitive maps --- Thayer's emotion model --- artificial emotions --- affective computing --- Fuzzy MARCOS --- Fuzzy PIPRECIA --- traffic risk --- TFN --- MCDM --- dual-rotor --- multi-frequency excitation --- non-intrusive calculation --- metamodel --- NDSL model --- AHP --- criteria weights --- pairwise comparisons --- AES --- PC --- MIMO discrete-time system --- state feedback and output feedback --- parameter dependence --- D numbers --- fuzzy sets --- DEMATEL --- multi-criteria decision-making --- multi-criteria optimization --- RAFSI method --- performance comparison --- rank reversal --- Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) --- wavelet transform --- GARCH --- LLA --- LDA --- KNN --- BWM --- BWM-I --- multi-criteria --- renewable energy --- the CCSD method --- the ITARA method --- the MARCOS method --- stackers --- logistics --- ensemble techniques --- data mining --- classification and discrimination --- linear regression --- applied mathematics general --- prediction theory --- theory of mathematical modeling --- medical applications --- empathic building --- fuzzy grey cognitive maps --- Thayer's emotion model --- artificial emotions --- affective computing

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This open access book presents a new generation multi-criteria, multi-stake holder, decision aide, called an "institutional compass". Based on hard data, the compass tells us what quality-direction we are heading in as an institution, region, system or organisation. The quality is not chosen from the usual scalar qualities of: good, neutral and bad. Instead, it is a quality chosen between: harmony, discipline and excitement. None is good in and of itself. We need some of each. The compass marks a new generation in four respects. 1. The representation of the data is intuitive and simple to understand, and therefore can be used to communicate and justify policy decisions. 2. Any data can be included, i.e., none is excluded. This makes the compass tailored to particular situations, voices and contexts. 3. The data includes different time horizons and different types of value: monetary, use, social, sentimental, religious, intrinsic, existential... 4. The process of compass construction can be made inclusive at several junctions. An institutional compass can be extended to evaluate products, add normativity to a systems analysis, reflect world-views such as that of ecological economists or function as an accounting system to manage scarce resources. There are four parts to the book. The first part introduces the general ideas behind the compass. In the second part, the author presents the method for constructing the compass. This includes data collection, data analysis and a mathematical formula to aggregate the data into a single holistic reading. In the third part, the author extends the methodology: to incorporate it into systems science, adding a normative and quality-direction dimension, to use it as a non-linear accounting method and more thoroughly to reflect the philosophy of ecological economists to give a real measure of sustainability. In the fourth part, we see three case studies: one for the World Health Organisation, a second is the use of the compass to label products in a shop and the third is as a regional compass for Hauts-de-France. The book ends with philosophical conclusions. Throughout the book, we see tight arguments, refreshing ideas and a thorough treatment of objectivity in decision making.

Sociology: work & labour --- Operational research --- Databases --- Social & political philosophy --- Data Representation --- Ecological Economics --- Institutional Analysis --- Multi-Criteria Decision Aides --- Non-Linear Accounting --- Policy Analysis/Justification --- Policy Decisions --- Qualitative Data Analysis --- Qualitative Objectivity --- tool for the assessment of an institution --- quantitative and qualitative assessment --- comparative institutional analysis --- qualitative indicators for institution --- measuring institutions --- policy analysis reader --- Adaptation of the institutional compass to ecological economics