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Harnessing Youth Potential in Ghana
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This policy note provides a view of the main challenges facing Ghana youth and proposes policy options to address them. The note: (i) highlights youth key characteristics from the perspective of their skills and jobs and the constraints they face, (ii) describes the institutional set up and strategy governing youth employment interventions in Ghana and what is known about existing initiatives in Ghana, and (iii) proposes policy avenues going forward and the particular role the government can play. Because implementing such policies will prove a daunting task for any government, prioritization is critical. The analysis attempts to structure policy priorities with a proposed sequencing around short-term policy options, or quick gains in the first year; and medium-term program reform options, which may take longer. This note is mainly targeted to the National Youth Authority (NYA) within Ministry of Employment and Labor Relations (MELR), and to the Ministry of Youth and Sports (MYS), in charge of the policy making process on youth employment, as well as all their implementing partners within and outside the government as identified in the 2014-2017 National Youth Policy action plan.


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Sri Lanka Development Update, Fall 2016
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The Sri Lanka development update report talks about the recent economic developments in Sri Lanka for the year 2015-2016. With no exception, Sri Lanka also faced the challenges of a trying global environment in 2015. Uncertainties in an election year that saw a major political transition contributed to elevate the risks stemming from global context. The accommodative policy choices supported economic growth. Authorities took policy measures aimed at stability, beginning 2016. The fiscal deficit rose sharply in 2015 due to increased expenditures in salary hikes and subsidies, one-off charges, reduced consumption taxes and increased interest costs on resultant deficit financing. A new IMF program is providing a solid platform for macro fiscal stability. World Bank supports the government's reform agenda, to eliminate obstacles to private sector competitiveness, enhance transparency and public sector management and improve fiscal sustainability. The government has undertaken to implement a medium-term reform agenda that aims to improve competitiveness, governance and public financial management that would bring in long-term benefits. These developments have contributed to an improved outlook. Growth is expected to remain unchanged in 2016 and grow marginally over 5.0 percent beyond, driven by private consumption and postponed FDI in 2015. The special focus section discusses the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Sri Lanka, launched by the World Bank in February 2016. The SCD is an objective, evidence-based, candid assessment of the main challenges facing the country, without limitation to the areas where the WBG is currently engaged.


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Republic of Angola Poverty and Social Impact Analysis : Subsidy Reform and Extension of Social Protection Program.
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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As the second largest African oil producer, Angola had unsustainable government expenditures in effect until 2014 due to the drop in international oil prices. The Government responded with a comprehensive reform program including the gradual elimination of most fuel subsidies and an extension of the social protection program Cartao Kikuia. This report analyzes the impact of those reforms on poverty using micro-level simulations based on the most recent household consumption survey IBEP (2008). First, household data is projected to 2015 incorporating changes in population numbers as reported by the Population Census 2014. Second, the impact of the subsidy reforms is estimated by applying the price changes due to the reform to household budgets. Third, the extension of the Cartao Kikuia program is simulated as a cash transfer by adjusting budgets of targeted households with the non-cash benefit from Cartao Kikuia.


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Afghanistan Development Update, October 2016
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Security and development remain inextricably linked in Afghanistan, with the poor security environment continuing to exert a significant constraint on confidence, investment, and growth. As a result, in 2015, the economy grew at only 0.8 percent. In addition to the security situation, adverse weather conditions also constrained growth, contributing to a decline in agricultural production of 5.7 percent in 2015. Available data for the first half of 2016 indicate ongoing low levels of investment, with agricultural production expected to remain poor due to crop diseases and pests. Thus, in 2016, the growth rate is expected to reach only 1.2 percent, despite progress with a number of important initiatives that are expected to have a positive impact on Afghanistan's economic development, including Afghanistan's accession to the World Trade Organization and the opening of the Chabahar port in Iran. With the economic growth rate significantly lower than the population growth rate, it is expected that poverty will have increased in 2015 and that it is likely to continue to increase throughout 2016. In the medium-term future, economic growth is expected to gradually accelerate, increasing from 1.8 percent in 2017 to 3.6 percent in 2019. However, stronger growth in out-years is predicated on improvements in security, political stability, reform progress, and continued high levels of aid.


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Performance of Water Utilities in Africa
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Africa's urban population is growing rapidly. Between 2000 and 2015, the urban population increased by more than 80 percent from 206 million to 373 million people. Although access to piped water increased over the period (from 82 million urban dwellers with piped water in 2000 to 124 million in 2015), African utilities were not able to keep up with the rapid urbanization as reflected in the decline of piped water as a primary source of water supply in percentage terms. The objective of this assessment is to inform Bank and government policies and projects on the drivers of utility performance. The report describes the main outcomes and lessons learned from the assessment that identified and analyzed the main features of water utility performance in Africa. The report includes the following chapters: chapter one gives introduction, chapter two describes the methodology used in the study, including details on the data collection process. In chapter three, the study team undertook a trend analysis of utility performance of the sector. Chapter four examines the efficiency of utilities using a data envelopment analysis (DEA) while also using an absolute performance approach. Chapter five investigates the effect of institutional factors on utility performance. Chapter six presents an econometric analysis of the drivers of utility performance, using various definitions of utility performance. The results from the econometric models are triangulated with a set of case studies of five utilities (Burkina Faso's l'Office National de l'Eau et de l'Assainissement (ONEA), Cote d'Ivoire's la sociata de distribution d'eau de la Cote d'Ivoire (SODECI), Kenya's Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company (NCWSC), Senegal's Sonagalaise des Eaux (SDE), and Uganda's National Water and Sewerage Corporation (NWSC), similar to those that the electricity study team undertook, which are presented in chapter seven. The report concludes in chapter eight with the lessons learned from the assessment.


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Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2016 : The Quest for Productivity Growth.
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Malaysia's economic growth has slowed down but remains resilient to external headwinds. The economic growth rate slowed from 5 percent in 2015 to 4.2 percent, year on year, in the first three quarters of 2016. Private consumption growth slowed down due to a softening labor market and households' ongoing adjustment to a context of fiscal consolidation. Public investment in infrastructure is offsetting moderation in investment in the oil and gas sector. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2016, with slow improvement moving forward. The fiscal consolidation process remains on track despite lower oil-related revenues. External developments pose the greatest risk to Malaysia's growth trajectory. Uncertainty regarding the impact of potential US fiscal stimulus policies on global trade, energy prices, financial flows and exchange rates is a major source of external risk, as evidenced with the recent financial outflows from emerging markets and its impact on the value of the ringgit. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has introduced measures to curb ringgit trading in offshore markets while developing and deepening onshore foreign exchange future markets. Continuing good performance on fiscal outcomes, in large part thanks to the introduction of GST, is important in building confidence in the policy framework. This could be supported by further mobilizing and diversifying fiscal revenues, including by broadening the base for the personal income tax and removing some exemptions in the GST. Also, raising efficiency of operational expenditure (i.e. improving the targeting of social assistance) and development expenditures (i.e. greater inter-agency coordination) could provide some additional fiscal space.


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Beating the Slowdown in Zambia : Reducing Fiscal Vulnerabilities for Economic Recovery
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Policy makers in commodity-exporting countries have faced increasing challenges in the past two years, in the face of reduced demand from China and uncertain economic recovery in developed economies. Zambia is no exception. Falling copper prices and a power crisis have contributed to an economic slowdown. The effects of the slowdown could arguably have been counteracted in a sustainable manner by utilizing fiscal buffers, but this option was not available, as Zambia did not make savings or provide for stabilization measures when the economy was prospering. Furthermore, options to access external financing are limited, as Zambia's debt levels have soared in recent years following repeat non-concessional borrowing, making it more difficult and expensive to borrow from international debt markets. This policy note examines Zambia's fiscal vulnerabilities and the costs associated with its expansionary, subsidy-oriented fiscal policy. It then sets out the benefits of coordinating fiscal policy with monetary policy in a way that is mutually reinforcing and beneficial to private sector investment, instead of having the two pull in opposite directions, as is currently the case. Finally, it makes recommendations to help shift the fiscal position to a more sustainable path and in turn improve market confidence and the prospects for sustainable economic recovery.


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Losing the Gains of the Past : The Welfare and Distributional Impacts of the Twin Crises of 2014 in Iraq.
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Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Iraq was plunged into two simultaneous crises in the second half of 2014, one driven by a sharp decline in oil prices, the other, by Islamic State militants. Since June 2014, crude oil prices per barrel have fallen from around 112 USD to 97 USD in September and 62 USD by December. Given Iraq's heavy dependence on oil as a share of GDP and exports, and a source of government revenues, this decline in prices alone would have hit Iraq's fragile economy hard. In addition, since June 2014, Islamic State (IS) or Da'ash militants extended their influence from Syria into Iraq's northern and western provinces of Anbar, Nineveh, Salahadin, and to a lesser extent, Kirkuk and Diyala. A total of 354,000 families were internally displaced between June and December of 2014 which represents about 2.1 million individuals; and those left behind have been cut off from the rest of the country. The internally displaced persons (IDPs) have sought refuge across Iraq and about half of those who have crossed governorates boundaries were settled in Iraqi Kurdistan.


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Rwanda Economic Update, July 2012 : Leveraging Regional Integration.
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Year: 2012 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Rwanda grew at a rapid rate in the second half of 2011, exceeding 10 percent for the first time, since the 2009 global economic downturn. Overall, Rwanda achieved 8.6 percent growth in 2011, and substantially exceeded the average growth for Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) of 5.0 percent. Rwanda also grew fastest than all the countries in the East African Community (EAC), which as a group reached 6.1 percent in 2011. Robust growth continued in the first quarter of 2012, when Rwanda's economy expanded at 7.7 percent. Renewed concerns over the global growth outlook and of the European debt crisis, might negatively affect Rwanda's prospects in 2012/2013, and lead to a lower growth turn-out compared to 2011. First quarter growth in 2012 remained overall robust, but showed considerable weakness in the industry sector. This was in contrast to what was observed in the second half of 2011, when industrial growth led by buoyant construction, and mining activities pushed the sector to the top, ahead of services. In the second half of 2011, Rwanda's growth momentum accelerated largely led by thriving non-tradable goods and services sectors while the manufacturing sector continued to be sluggish. The Rwandan economy expanded by 10.8 percent during the second half of 2011, but manufacturing only contributed 0.5 percentage points to this growth outcome. Agricultural output took a leap in the second half, mainly due to a very good second harvest season outcome. Overall, growth turn-out for 2011 stood at 8.6 percent, up from 7.2 percent in 2010. Inflationary pressures reappeared in tandem with high international food and fuel prices. The small policy response came with a delay, not enough to prevent core inflation reaching its highest level since mid-2009. Core inflation exceeded headline inflation for the whole second half of 2011. The current account deficit broadened in 2011. Rwanda's export performed robustly, benefiting from high international prices, but could not keep up with the increasing import bill, leading to a further deterioration in the trade balance. For 2012, Rwanda's economy is expected to continue to grow slower than it did in 2011, but at a healthy pace. The industrial sector is likely to expand less than in 2011 and growth in the services sector is expected to be more moderate, both on account of a more risky global environment.


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Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2016 : Leveraging Trade Agreements.
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The MEM is the World Bank's biannual flagship publication on Malaysia. It provides analysis of recent economic developments and the near-term outlook for Malaysia. Each publication also focuses on a special topic related to Malaysia's transformation into a high-income economy. Malaysia is at the forefront of a "new generation" of trade agreements that will shape trade and investment over the next decade. The 14th MEM focuses on how Malaysia can use trade agreements to bring new opportunities to the Malaysian economy and accelerate its transition to high income status.

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