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This paper analyzes the drivers of digital technologies adoption and how it affects the productivity of small scale businesses in Africa. We use data collected from two semi-rural markets in Benin, where grains and legumes are key staple foods and one-third of the population has internet access. We develop a structural model to rationalize digital technologies adoption—defined as the use of mobile broadband internet connection through smartphones—as well as usage patterns and outcomes observed in the data. The model’s implications are empirically tested using both reduced-form and structural maximum likelihood estimations. We find that younger, wealthier, more educated grains and legumes suppliers and those closely surrounded by other users are more likely to adopt digital technologies. Adopters perform 4-5 more business transactions each month than non-adopters on average, suggesting that digital technologies adoption could raise the monthly frequency and amounts of trades by up to 50%. Most adopters are women, but their productivity gains are lower than their male counterparts. Counterfactual policy simulations with the estimated model suggest that upgrading the broadband internet quality yields the largest improvement in adoption rate and productivity gains, while reducing its cost for a given connection quality only has a moderate effect. Improving access to credit only increases the adoption rate of constrained suppliers.

Formal and Informal Sectors --- Institutional Arrangements --- Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Quantitative Policy Modeling --- Shadow Economy

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Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.

Macroeconomics. --- Macroeconomic policy making. --- Macroeconomics --- Economics --- Econometric models. --- Mathematical models. --- Inflation --- Production and Operations Management --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Financial Crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Potential output --- Output gap --- Capacity utilization --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Production --- Prices --- Financial crises --- Economic theory --- Industrial capacity --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- United States

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This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend.

Banks and Banking --- Deflation --- Economic theory --- Finance --- Financial services --- Inflation --- Interest rates --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Monetary Policy --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Price Level --- Prices --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Real interest rates --- Short term interest rates --- United States

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This paper describes the primary framework associating the four principal price indices in the system of economic statistics—the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Export and Import Price Indices (XPI and MPI)—with the macroeconomic value aggregates they decompose into price and volume components. The paper begins by defining the basic algebra of price indices. It then discusses the definition of the value aggregates comprising the goods and services components of the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). The paper concludes by briefly considering purchasing power parities and labor compensation indices.

Macroeconomics --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Consumption --- National accounts --- Price indexes --- Consumer price indexes --- Producer price indexes --- Prices --- Economics --- National income --- Australia --- Leading indicators

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has moved away from a broad money target toward a “multiple indicators” approach to the conduct of monetary policy. In adopting such a framework, it is necessary to know which of the many potential indicators provide the most reliable and timely information on future developments in the target variable(s). This paper assesses which indicators provide the most useful information about future inflationary trends. It concludes that while the broad money target has been de-emphasized, developments in the monetary aggregates remain an important indicator of future inflation. The exchange rate and import prices are also relevant, particularly for inflation in the manufacturing sector.

Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Output gap --- Wholesale price indexes --- Consumer price indexes --- Monetary base --- Prices --- Production --- Money --- Price indexes --- Economic theory --- Money supply --- India