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Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.

Econometrics --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Financial Crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Early warning systems --- Financial crises --- Currency crises --- Exchange rates --- Markov-switching models --- Econometric analysis --- Crisis management --- Econometric models --- Thailand

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In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still, results on the effectiveness of these laws remain tentative. In this paper, we test empirically whether fiscal performance, measured as the level of primary fiscal balances and their volatility, indeed improved after the implementation of Fiscal Responsibility Laws in a sample of Latin American and advanced economies. We show that traditional econometric approaches, which rely on the use of dummies in time series or panel regressions, yield biased estimates. In contrast, our empirical strategy recognizes that, a priori, the timing of the effect of these laws on fiscal performance is unknown, while controlling for the impact of the business and commodity cycles on fiscal outcomes. Overall, we find limited empirical evidence in support of the view that Fiscal Responsibility Laws have had a distinguishable effect on fiscal performance. However, Fiscal Responsibility Laws could still have other positive effects on the conduct of fiscal policy not analyzed here, for instance, through enhanced transparency and guidance in the budget process and lower risk premia.

Finance, Public --- Fiscal policy. --- Law and legislation. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Government policy --- Law --- Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Fiscal Policy --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Financial administration & public finance law --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- PFM legal and regulatory frameworks --- Fiscal stance --- Markov-switching models --- Output gap --- Fiscal policy --- Law and legislation --- Econometric models --- Production --- Economic theory --- New Zealand

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This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. There is also evidence of contagion in the stock market.

Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- International Finance: Other --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Other --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- International Financial Markets --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Real effective exchange rates --- Probit models --- Stock markets --- Markov-switching models --- Econometric analysis --- Financial markets --- Econometric models --- Stock exchanges --- Indonesia

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The importance and usefulness of subjects and topics involving social data and artificial intelligence are becoming widely recognized. This book contains invited review, expository, and original research articles dealing with, and presenting state-of-the-art accounts pf, the recent advances in the subjects of social data and artificial intelligence, and potentially their links to Cyberspace.

Information technology industries --- Computer science --- centrality metric --- graph visualisation --- visual analytics --- data processing --- social network --- stock market --- community detection --- complex networks --- Hadoop --- modularity increment --- geometric analysis --- lidar scanning signal --- micro-distortion --- detection technology --- TCD1209DG --- lossless signal transmission --- person re-identification --- multiple granularity features --- Siamese Multiple Granularity Network --- multi-channel weighted fusion loss --- temporal links prediction --- gravity model --- multilayer network --- label propagation algorithm --- H-index --- automatic speech recognition --- speech corpus --- text corpus --- data acquisition --- multi-layer neural network --- natural language processing --- markov switching --- breakpoint test --- crude oil price --- structural change --- artificial intelligence --- ice-snow tourism --- sustainable development --- Python --- text mining --- pancreatic cancer --- twin support vector machine --- linear kernel --- polynomial kernel --- RBF kernel --- cryptography --- RSA cryptosystem --- RSA cryptanalysis --- partial key exposure attack --- social network simulation --- ABMS --- Spark --- two-tier partition algorithm --- visual style --- context-aware --- preference analysis --- fashion recommendation --- Facebook advertising post --- social media marketing --- recommendation system --- topic model --- post engagement --- blockchain --- client/server --- electronic health records --- health information management --- privacy --- security --- innovation --- business --- machine learning --- decision tree --- predictive analytics --- social data science --- contingencies --- asymmetry --- tele-education --- digitalization --- ICT infrastructure --- digital teacher training --- replace face-to-face education --- telemedicine --- technology acceptance --- robust partial least squares path modeling --- data-mining techniques --- data-discretization methods --- feature-selection methods --- industry data applications --- advanced multicomponential discretization models --- social networks --- behavior analysis --- social behavior --- social networking satisfaction --- data science --- DBLP platform --- Twitter --- deep reinforcement learning --- keyphrase extraction --- unsupervised method --- feature selection --- weighted non-negative matrix factorization --- hierarchical information --- tag information --- deep factorization --- combinatorial optimization problem --- heuristics method --- nature-inspired algorithm --- NP-hard problem --- plant root --- healthcare data --- data management --- digital services --- cybernetics --- symmetrical designing --- overlapping community discovery --- gravitational degree --- greedy strategy --- two expansions --- cloud computing --- color revolution operator --- imperialist competitive algorithm --- quality of service --- service composition --- service time-cost --- centrality metric --- graph visualisation --- visual analytics --- data processing --- social network --- stock market --- community detection --- complex networks --- Hadoop --- modularity increment --- geometric analysis --- lidar scanning signal --- micro-distortion --- detection technology --- TCD1209DG --- lossless signal transmission --- person re-identification --- multiple granularity features --- Siamese Multiple Granularity Network --- multi-channel weighted fusion loss --- temporal links prediction --- gravity model --- multilayer network --- label propagation algorithm --- H-index --- automatic speech recognition --- speech corpus --- text corpus --- data acquisition --- multi-layer neural network --- natural language processing --- markov switching --- breakpoint test --- crude oil price --- structural change --- artificial intelligence --- ice-snow tourism --- sustainable development --- Python --- text mining --- pancreatic cancer --- twin support vector machine --- linear kernel --- polynomial kernel --- RBF kernel --- cryptography --- RSA cryptosystem --- RSA cryptanalysis --- partial key exposure attack --- social network simulation --- ABMS --- Spark --- two-tier partition algorithm --- visual style --- context-aware --- preference analysis --- fashion recommendation --- Facebook advertising post --- social media marketing --- recommendation system --- topic model --- post engagement --- blockchain --- client/server --- electronic health records --- health information management --- privacy --- security --- innovation --- business --- machine learning --- decision tree --- predictive analytics --- social data science --- contingencies --- asymmetry --- tele-education --- digitalization --- ICT infrastructure --- digital teacher training --- replace face-to-face education --- telemedicine --- technology acceptance --- robust partial least squares path modeling --- data-mining techniques --- data-discretization methods --- feature-selection methods --- industry data applications --- advanced multicomponential discretization models --- social networks --- behavior analysis --- social behavior --- social networking satisfaction --- data science --- DBLP platform --- Twitter --- deep reinforcement learning --- keyphrase extraction --- unsupervised method --- feature selection --- weighted non-negative matrix factorization --- hierarchical information --- tag information --- deep factorization --- combinatorial optimization problem --- heuristics method --- nature-inspired algorithm --- NP-hard problem --- plant root --- healthcare data --- data management --- digital services --- cybernetics --- symmetrical designing --- overlapping community discovery --- gravitational degree --- greedy strategy --- two expansions --- cloud computing --- color revolution operator --- imperialist competitive algorithm --- quality of service --- service composition --- service time-cost