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Business, Economy and Management --- Social Sciences --- Economics --- Developmental Issues & Socioeconomic Studies --- World history --- economy --- economic history --- macroeconomy --- microeconomics --- econometrics
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'Fisher's book will appeal to scholars interested in historical macroeconomics and the industrial revolution. It suggests promising directions for future research, and it contains vast amounts of useful information. In time, specialists may find it to be an indispensable reference.'- Gary Richardson, Journal of Economic History In this study of the European economy from 1700 to 1910, the macroeconomic data from five countries is examined both descriptively and analytically (using structural and time-series methods). The UK receives three chapters, in view of the extensive literature in that case, while France, Germany, Italy and Sweden are each covered in a separate chapter.
Europe --- Economic conditions --- Industries --- History --- Conditions économiques --- Industrie --- Histoire --- Industrial revolution --- Macroeconomy --- Révolution industrielle. --- Macroéconomie. --- Conditions économiques --- Histoire.
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Major resource discoveries have transformed growth prospects for many low-income countries. However, the sharp downturn in commodity prices in recent years is affecting resource investment in these countries, and may delay the development of recent discoveries into production. This study investigates lead times from discovery to production for a unique data set of gold and copper discoveries worldwide during 1950-2014. The study employs standard parametric and nonparametric duration analysis. The results suggest an important role for copper prices; for instance, an upswing at the time of discovery can hasten the development of the mine by two to three years in low-income countries. There appears to be a similarly beneficial impact on lead times of sounder macroeconomic policies and quality of governance.
Duration Analysis --- Energy --- Energy and The Macroeconomy --- Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Resource Booms
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This paper reports the main findings of a pilot project launched in July 2014 by the IMF’s Statistics Department to test augmenting the IMF’s financial soundness indicators (FSIs) with concentration and distribution measures (CDMs) to capture tail risks, concentrations, variations in distributions, and the volatility of indicators over time that simple averages can miss. Volunteer participants reported a trial set of CDMs to assess analytical usefulness and identify concerns such as confidentiality and reporting burden. The results of the pilot suggests that CDMs can help detect financial sector risks, justifying the additional reporting burden but that further input from participating countries and potential data users should be sought; indeed further refinement of the reporting requirements and the CDMs themselves may be needed.
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What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long-run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive dataset for all major asset classes, including housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new findings and puzzles.
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This paper investigates the role of structural reforms -financial reforms, trade liberalization, and privatization- as determinants of FDI inflows based on newly constructed dataset on structural reforms for 19 Latin American and 25 Eastern European countries between 1989 and 2004. Our main finding is a strong empirical relationship from reforms to FDI, in particular, from financial liberalization and privatization. These results are robust to different measures of reforms, split samples, and potential endogeneity and omitted variables biases.
Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Investments, Foreign --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions --- Privatization --- Contracting Out --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Finance --- International economics --- Foreign direct investment --- Structural reforms --- Financial sector development --- Trade liberalization --- Financial services industry --- Commercial policy --- Russian Federation
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This paper makes use of the IMF’s Database for Monitoring Fund Arrangements (MONA) to investigate whether transition countries that more successfully implement the conditionality of IMF programs tend to show a better performance on recovery and growth. It is not possible to determine a clear-cut relationship between the index that determines the level of compliance with structural benchmarks in IMF programs and growth. However, the paper finds a definite, positive relationship between the index of compliance with performance criteria and growth, even after controlling for the extent of stabilization of the transition countries.
Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Performance and Prospects --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Finance --- Structural reforms --- Multilateral development institutions --- Financial institutions --- Development banks --- Bulgaria
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This paper is an attempt to identify the determinants of trust between country authorities and IMF staff in the context of an IMF-supported program. Using an outcomes-based definition of trust, a game-theoretic model is developed to compute the level of trust between the two parties. The results and the analysis of trust-related issues emerging in a program context suggest that trust between country authorities and IMF staff exerts a positive impact on the likelihood of program success through its ability to improve the quality of the design, the efficiency of negotiation, and the effectiveness of implementation of an IMF-supported program. Some initiatives to secure such benefits and enhance trust in staff are proposed.
Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Tax incentives --- Crisis resolution --- Structural policies --- Crisis management
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This paper discusses Solomon Islands’ Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). All end-December 2014 performance criteria (PCs), indicative targets (ITs) for March 2015, and end-June 2015 PCs have been met by a considerable margin, with the exception of the ITs on government-funded recurrent spending on health and education, which have been consistently missed since 2014 albeit by a small margin. September 2015 available data indicate that ITs on international reserves, net domestic assets at the Central Bank, and net credit to the government have been comfortably met. The authorities remain committed to macroeconomic stability and completion of the reviews.
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This paper presents High-Level Summary Technical Assistance (TA) report on Mongolia Central Bank Communications. The TA report reviews the existing communication framework of Bank of Mongolia (BOM). The analysis focuses on the assessment of the monetary and financial policy communications as well as the evaluation of the internal organization of the BOM’s communication function. The organizational arrangements are reviewed in terms of structure, resources, and procedures. The report also highlights the importance of establishing several pre-conditions for effective central bank communications, which include the presence of sound legal and normative frameworks particularly in relation to the mandate and independence of the central bank. The report identifies several areas where BOM could enhance the effectiveness of its communications. Creating a dedicated well-staffed department in charge of communications and integrating this department into major BOM’s policy actions and flagship reports would significantly strengthen the BOM’s internal organization of communications.
Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- International agencies --- Mongolia
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