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Business, Economy and Management --- Social Sciences --- Economics --- Developmental Issues & Socioeconomic Studies --- World history --- economy --- economic history --- macroeconomy --- microeconomics --- econometrics

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Major resource discoveries have transformed growth prospects for many low-income countries. However, the sharp downturn in commodity prices in recent years is affecting resource investment in these countries, and may delay the development of recent discoveries into production. This study investigates lead times from discovery to production for a unique data set of gold and copper discoveries worldwide during 1950-2014. The study employs standard parametric and nonparametric duration analysis. The results suggest an important role for copper prices; for instance, an upswing at the time of discovery can hasten the development of the mine by two to three years in low-income countries. There appears to be a similarly beneficial impact on lead times of sounder macroeconomic policies and quality of governance.

Duration Analysis --- Energy --- Energy and The Macroeconomy --- Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Resource Booms

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This paper reports the main findings of a pilot project launched in July 2014 by the IMF’s Statistics Department to test augmenting the IMF’s financial soundness indicators (FSIs) with concentration and distribution measures (CDMs) to capture tail risks, concentrations, variations in distributions, and the volatility of indicators over time that simple averages can miss. Volunteer participants reported a trial set of CDMs to assess analytical usefulness and identify concerns such as confidentiality and reporting burden. The results of the pilot suggests that CDMs can help detect financial sector risks, justifying the additional reporting burden but that further input from participating countries and potential data users should be sought; indeed further refinement of the reporting requirements and the CDMs themselves may be needed.

Finance: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Finance --- Financial soundness indicators --- Financial services industry

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After hiking rates 14 consecutive times between December 2021 and August 2023 to arrest above-target inflation, the Bank of England (BoE) has held rates at 5.25 percent since then. As the BoE prepares for easing, this paper examines three concurrent monetary policy questions: (a) how have the macroeconomic and financial effects of BoE monetary tightening during the current cycle compared with experiences in other major advanced economies (AEs), and with previous UK tightening cycles; (b) what is the impact of US Fed decisions on UK monetary transmission, and the attendant implications thereof for BoE communications; and (c) how do model-based predictions of UK monetary policy paths (which seek to stabilize inflation and the output gap) compare with staff’s recommended path in the 2024 Article IV consultation. We find that (a) monetary transmission has largely mirrored previous episodes (and experiences in other major AEs), with the most notable exception of the mortgage channel, which has been slower due to a higher share of fixed-rate mortgages; (b) an outsized impact of Fed announcements on UK financial markets places a premium on BoE communications in a context where the BoE may diverge from the Fed; and (c) optimal rate path predictions are close to staff’s recommended path, although if the BoE attached a high weight to concerns about a prolonged period of above-target inflation leading to de-anchoring of inflation expectations, a slower pace of cuts would be warranted. A technical assistance mission from the IMF's Statistics Department visited Cambodia during April 10-21, 2023, to support the authorities in continuing to improve the compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics (PSDS).

Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Money and Interest Rates: General --- United Kingdom

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This study empirically investigates the impact of the climate transition on the French financial sector using a micro-macro approach to examine the long-term effects of climate mitigation and decarbonization policies on sectoral output and the effects on firm profitability and the likelihood of corporate defaults. We employ a recursive-dynamic, multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the Fit-for-55 climate scenario and then integrate the sectoral output paths derived from the model into firm-level corporate balance sheets and risks. We then assess the extent of credit exposure of banks to energy-intensive sectors. Our findings indicate that, under the Fit-for-55 scenario, the mining, chemicals and manufacturing sectors might face notable increases in their probability of defaults, in turn creating pockets of vulnerabilities in some parts of the banking system depending on their exposure to these energy-intensive sectors. This highlights the importance for a timely and orderly transition, including integrating climate transition plans into the prudential framework.

Climate --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Global Warming --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- France