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When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik, the Red Scare seized the American public. While President Eisenhower cautioned restraint, his hand was forced, and NASA's budget had increased five thousand percent over its pre-Sputnik levels by the time President Kennedy proposed landing a man on the moon. Spending on the space race is in no way unique; Almost every policy area has its own Sputnik-type story, where waves of popular support for an idea (or disillusionment with a previous one) created new political priorities, resulting in dramatic changes to the budget or compelling agencies to respond quickly with little knowledge or preparation. Is this instability an inherent feature of the policy process, or is it possible for an agency to deal with problems in a way that insulates it from swings in public opinion and thus imposes some stability on the decision making process? Derek A. Epp argues that some agencies can indeed do that and that instability is at least partially a function of poor institutional design. While it is inherently more challenging to maintain stability around complex problems like immigration or climate change, the deliberative process itself can affect the degree of stability around an issue. Epp looks at whether agencies follow a deliberative model for decision making, in which policies are developed by means of debate among a small group of policymakers, or a collective model, in which the opinions of many people are aggregated, as with the stock market. He argues that, in many instances, the collective model produces more informed and stable policy outcomes that can be adapted more readily to new information and changing public priorities.
Policy sciences --- Public administration --- United States --- Politics and government. --- complexity. --- information processing. --- institutional capacity. --- policy change. --- public policy. --- wisdom of crowds.
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This paper analyzes institutional arrangements for public debt management by reviewing the experience of OECD countries during the late 1980s and 1990s. It discusses principal-agent issues arising from the delegation of authority from the Minister of Finance to the debt management office and describes how countries have designed governance structures and control and monitoring mechanisms to deal with these issues. The paper also discusses what lessons emerging market countries and transition countries can draw from the experience of advanced OECD countries. The OECD experience clearly indicates that-regardless of whether the debt management office is located inside or outside the Ministry of Finance-four issues are of vital importance: Giving priority to strategic public policy objectives rather than tactical trading objectives; Strengthening the institutional capacity to deal with financial portfolio management and with the public policy aspects of debt management; Modernizing debt management; Creating mechanisms to ensure successful delegation and accountability to the Ministry of Finance and Parliament. This paper-a joint product of the Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics, and Public Debt Management Group, Banking, Capital Markets, and Financial Engineering Department-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to analyze the institutional dimentions of effective government policy.
Bank Policy --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Central Bank --- Corporate Governance --- Debt Markets --- Emerging Market --- Emerging Market Countries --- Emerging Market Economies --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Exchange Rate --- External Debt --- Finance --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Financial Management --- Financial Portfolio --- Financial Risks --- Institutional Capacity --- International Economics & Trade --- Monetary Policy --- Portfolio Management --- Principal-Agent Problem --- Private Sector Development --- Public and Municipal Finance --- Public Debt --- Public Debt Management --- Public Sector Economics and Finance --- Strategic Debt Management --- Trading --- Transition Countries --- Urban Development --- Urban Economics
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Since we introduced the term "middle-income trap" in 2006, it has become popular among policy makers and researchers. In May 2015, a search of Google Scholar returned more than 3,000 articles including the term and about 300 articles with the term in the title. This paper provides a (non-exhaustive) survey of this literature. The paper then discusses what, in retrospect, we missed when we coined the term. Today, based on developments in East Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe during the past decade, we would have paid more attention to demographic factors, entrepreneurship, and external institutional anchors. We would also make it clearer that to us, the term was as much the absence of a satisfactory theory that could inform development policy in middle-income economies as the articulation of a development phenomenon. Three-quarters of the people in the world now live in middle-income economies, but economists have yet to provide a reliable theory of growth to help policy makers navigate the transition from middle- to high-income status. Hybrids of the Solow-Swan and Lucas-Romer models are not unhelpful, but they are poor substitutes for a well-constructed growth framework.
Advanced countries --- Advanced country --- Agriculture --- Balance sheet --- Banking --- Bankruptcy --- Barriers --- Benchmark --- Benchmarks --- Capital --- Capital account --- Capital accumulation --- Capital flow --- Capital investment --- Capital investments --- Capital markets --- Carbon emissions --- Central bank --- Climate change economics --- Closed economies --- Comparative advantage --- Competition --- Competitiveness --- Currency --- Currency risk --- Customers --- Decentralization --- Democracy --- Demographic --- Deregulation --- Developing countries --- Development --- Development economics --- Development policy --- Dividend --- Economic development --- Economic developments --- Economic geography --- Economic growth --- Economic outlook --- Economic performance --- Economic progress --- Economic rents --- Economic research --- Economic structures --- Economic theory & research --- Economics --- Economy --- Efficient capital --- Elasticity --- Emerging economies --- Emerging markets --- Entry point --- Environmental sustainability --- Equity --- Exchange --- Exchange rate --- Exchange rates --- Expectations --- Exports --- External finance --- Externalities --- Federal reserve --- Financial crisis --- Financial markets --- Financial sector --- Flexible exchange rates --- Foreign direct investment --- Foreign investors --- Foreign markets --- Free trade --- Future --- GDP --- GDP per capita --- Global economic prospects --- Globalization --- Goods --- Governance --- Growth models --- Growth potential --- Growth rate --- Growth rates --- Growth theories --- Growth theory --- Human capital --- Incentives --- Income --- Income levels --- Incomes --- Industrialization --- Inequality --- Infrastructure investments --- Institutional capacity --- Institutional infrastructure --- Intellectual property --- Interest --- International finance --- International trade --- Investment --- Investments --- Investors --- Knowledge economy --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor policies --- Liberalization --- Liquidity --- Low-income countries --- Macroeconomic management --- Macroeconomic performance --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Market conditions --- Market prices --- Markets --- Mic traps --- Middle income countries --- Middle-income countries --- Middle-income country --- Middle-income economies --- Monetary policy --- Money market --- National income --- Natural resources --- Open economies --- Patents --- Per capita income --- Per capita incomes --- Political economy --- Political power --- Poverty reduction --- Price --- Prices --- Private sector development --- Productivity --- Productivity growth --- Property rights --- Protectionism --- Public policy --- Rapid growth --- Real estate --- Regional integration --- Rent --- Risk management --- Safety nets --- Share --- Social capital --- Social protections and labor --- Social safety nets --- Startups --- Structural change --- Sustainable development --- Taxes --- Technological change --- Theory --- Total factor productivity --- Total factor productivity growth --- Trade --- Trade diversion --- Trade liberalization --- Trade negotiations --- Trade policy --- Trends --- Unemployment --- Unemployment rates --- Urbanization --- Value --- Value added --- Variables --- Venture capital --- Volatility --- Wage growth --- Wages --- World development indicators --- WTO
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Since we introduced the term "middle-income trap" in 2006, it has become popular among policy makers and researchers. In May 2015, a search of Google Scholar returned more than 3,000 articles including the term and about 300 articles with the term in the title. This paper provides a (non-exhaustive) survey of this literature. The paper then discusses what, in retrospect, we missed when we coined the term. Today, based on developments in East Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe during the past decade, we would have paid more attention to demographic factors, entrepreneurship, and external institutional anchors. We would also make it clearer that to us, the term was as much the absence of a satisfactory theory that could inform development policy in middle-income economies as the articulation of a development phenomenon. Three-quarters of the people in the world now live in middle-income economies, but economists have yet to provide a reliable theory of growth to help policy makers navigate the transition from middle- to high-income status. Hybrids of the Solow-Swan and Lucas-Romer models are not unhelpful, but they are poor substitutes for a well-constructed growth framework.
Advanced countries --- Advanced country --- Agriculture --- Balance sheet --- Banking --- Bankruptcy --- Barriers --- Benchmark --- Benchmarks --- Capital --- Capital account --- Capital accumulation --- Capital flow --- Capital investment --- Capital investments --- Capital markets --- Carbon emissions --- Central bank --- Climate change economics --- Closed economies --- Comparative advantage --- Competition --- Competitiveness --- Currency --- Currency risk --- Customers --- Decentralization --- Democracy --- Demographic --- Deregulation --- Developing countries --- Development --- Development economics --- Development policy --- Dividend --- Economic development --- Economic developments --- Economic geography --- Economic growth --- Economic outlook --- Economic performance --- Economic progress --- Economic rents --- Economic research --- Economic structures --- Economic theory & research --- Economics --- Economy --- Efficient capital --- Elasticity --- Emerging economies --- Emerging markets --- Entry point --- Environmental sustainability --- Equity --- Exchange --- Exchange rate --- Exchange rates --- Expectations --- Exports --- External finance --- Externalities --- Federal reserve --- Financial crisis --- Financial markets --- Financial sector --- Flexible exchange rates --- Foreign direct investment --- Foreign investors --- Foreign markets --- Free trade --- Future --- GDP --- GDP per capita --- Global economic prospects --- Globalization --- Goods --- Governance --- Growth models --- Growth potential --- Growth rate --- Growth rates --- Growth theories --- Growth theory --- Human capital --- Incentives --- Income --- Income levels --- Incomes --- Industrialization --- Inequality --- Infrastructure investments --- Institutional capacity --- Institutional infrastructure --- Intellectual property --- Interest --- International finance --- International trade --- Investment --- Investments --- Investors --- Knowledge economy --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor policies --- Liberalization --- Liquidity --- Low-income countries --- Macroeconomic management --- Macroeconomic performance --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Market conditions --- Market prices --- Markets --- Mic traps --- Middle income countries --- Middle-income countries --- Middle-income country --- Middle-income economies --- Monetary policy --- Money market --- National income --- Natural resources --- Open economies --- Patents --- Per capita income --- Per capita incomes --- Political economy --- Political power --- Poverty reduction --- Price --- Prices --- Private sector development --- Productivity --- Productivity growth --- Property rights --- Protectionism --- Public policy --- Rapid growth --- Real estate --- Regional integration --- Rent --- Risk management --- Safety nets --- Share --- Social capital --- Social protections and labor --- Social safety nets --- Startups --- Structural change --- Sustainable development --- Taxes --- Technological change --- Theory --- Total factor productivity --- Total factor productivity growth --- Trade --- Trade diversion --- Trade liberalization --- Trade negotiations --- Trade policy --- Trends --- Unemployment --- Unemployment rates --- Urbanization --- Value --- Value added --- Variables --- Venture capital --- Volatility --- Wage growth --- Wages --- World development indicators --- WTO
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