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The objective of this thesis is to identify the determinants of the failure of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). ICOs are a new, innovative form of corporate financing: The company sells digital tokens to investors, who can then participate in the company's future development. Intermediaries like banks are no longer required. ICOs have been enjoying a lot of popularity lately. However, the market suffers from high uncertainty and asymmetric information. Therefore, further research is needed. Some studies have already analyzed the determinants of the success (esp. the amount raised) of ICOs. This thesis instead, aims to identify the determinants of failure. These are to be determined with multivariate data analysis. It is suggested to indicate the dependent variable of the failure of an ICO by the listing and/or the trading activity of its token on a secondary exchange.
ICO --- Initial Coin Offering --- Corporate Financing --- Crypto --- Signaling Theory --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Comptabilité & audit
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Objective: Initial coin Offering (ICO) is an emergent type of crowdfunding based on blockchain technology. In an ICO, a startup sells its tokens to the public in exchange for a promise of a future product or service. The purchase of the tokens happens mostly with other mainstream cryptocurrencies. Since most ICO tokens are claimed to be utilities and not securities, many discussions have been raised regarding the advantages and risks ICOs bear. The purpose of this thesis is to explore and analyze this new phenomenon and to develop an analysis framework to help average investors assess ICOs. Approach: This paper begins with a technical and business analysis of the ICO tokens, followed by a market and stakeholders (issuer, investor, regulator) analysis. Then, it presents the projection of the traditional fundraising assessment methods (VCs and crowdfunding) onto the ICO model. Thereafter, the document outlines the results of the review of several recent ICO assessment studies, industry practices, and my own analysis. Finally, and in the light of these elements, an ICO analysis framework is exposed and applied to 3 ICO cases. Result: Investors willing to invest in startups launching ICOs should analyze the startup projects from 4 different aspects: •Value proposition and project economics: their assessment is identical to the traditional funding models •Token design model: as ICO tokens are mostly considered as utilities and not securities, investors need to look at how the project profits will impact the tokens value •Cash and budget allocation: investors should assess the transparency of the startup budget and the treasury management of the high volatile crypto assets •Regulation and law compliance: due to the ambiguity of the ICO regulations, investors need to make sure that the startup tokens are law compliant Conclusion: Compared to traditional fundraising models, ICOs are more difficult to assess because of the complexity of the token economics evaluation. Designing a meaningful token model (issuers) and assessing the token design (investors) require a deep understanding of many economic aspects that most of the time neither issuers nor average investors have. Furthermore, the hybrid roles tokens could play within a project make it difficult for regulators to classify them and evaluate their law compliance.
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This work demonstrates the value of the CEO’s background in determining the success of ICOs. The definition of success can differ between entrepreneurs and investors and corresponds to the maximum amount of money raised for the former, and the listing of the ICO’s tokens for the latter. These outcomes are uncoupled from each other through breaches of contract (frauds), i.e., the fact that ICOs that have reached their hard caps do not list their tokens in up to 26.71% of the cases. As a result, both outcomes are influenced by different sets of ICOs’ characteristics, and some characteristics can influence both outcomes in opposite directions (KYC). We provide models that help determine both outcomes based on factual, easy-to-gather information, including an easy-to-use RPA predictive model for the likelihood of token listing.
CEO characteristic --- Initial Coin Offering (ICO) --- Token offering --- Token listing --- Fundraising --- Finance --- Blockchain --- University degree --- Investors --- Entrepreneurs --- Cryptocurrencies --- Moral hazard --- Country restriction --- Scam --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Stratégie & innovation
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Alternative assets such as fine art, wine, or diamonds have become popular investment vehicles in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Correlation with classical financial markets is typically low, such that diversification benefits arise for portfolio allocation and risk management. Cryptocurrencies share many alternative asset features, but are hampered by high volatility, sluggish commercial acceptance, and regulatory uncertainties. This collection of papers addresses alternative assets and cryptocurrencies from economic, financial, statistical, and technical points of view. It gives an overview of their current state and explores their properties and prospects using innovative approaches and methodologies.
inflation propensity --- realized volatility --- portfolio modelling --- diamond stocks --- systemic risk --- cryptocurrencies --- initial coin offering --- smooth transition --- investment asset --- GARCH --- risk management --- transaction costs --- liquidity costs --- time series --- Baltic dry index --- statistical arbitrage --- volume --- cryptocurrency --- Hashrate --- blockchain --- diamond prices --- pro-cyclical volatility --- capital asset pricing model --- Bitcoin volatility --- trend prediction --- collatz conjecture --- high-frequency finance --- sentiment --- geometric distribution --- speculative bubbles --- gold --- classification framework --- limit order book --- venture capital --- proof-of-work --- high frequency --- Bitcoin --- machine learning --- metric learning --- stylized fact --- digital currency --- crowdfunding --- HAR --- GARCH-MIDAS --- bitcoin --- Finance. --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question
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