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This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the performance of conventional approaches based on predicted probabilities generated by binary response regressions and random forests with two unconventional classification algorithms. The unconventional algorithms are calibrated specifically to minimize a prediction loss function penalizing Type 1 and Type 2 errors: (1) an algorithm that selects linear combinations of correlates of conflict to minimize the prediction loss function, and (2) an algorithm that chooses a set of thresholds for the same variables, together with the number of breaches of thresholds that constitute a prediction of conflict, that minimize the prediction loss function. The paper evaluates the predictive power of these approaches in a set of conflict and non-conflict episodes constructed from a large country-year panel of developing countries since 1977, and finds substantial differences in the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of these alternative algorithms. The threshold classifier has the best overall predictive performance, and moreover has advantages in simplicity and transparency that make it well suited for policy-making purposes. The paper explores the implications of these findings for the World Bank's classification of fragile and conflict-affected states.

Conflict --- Forecasting --- Fragile States

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Two related propositions have been central in the recent debates on public sector reforms. The first of these is that the appropriate measure of institutional strength is the ability of public sector management systems to deliver ("functionality") rather than the institutional "form" or what these institutions look like. This is a central idea in the World Bank's Public Sector Management (PSM) Approach 2011-2020. Second, and consistent with this, is the recognition that the process of engagement matters in the sense that how problems, solutions, and reform approaches are identified matters at least as much as what the solution is. This suggests that development institutions should focus on bringing a broad range of stakeholders together and facilitate a process of collective problem and solution identification. Recent contributions to the literature describe a "Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation" approach as a means of putting this idea into practice. While both of these propositions have considerable intellectual and intuitive appeal, they are based on an inductive logic and neither is currently backed with a large body of robust evidence. This paper contributes to this literature by documenting the experience of a civil service reform project-the World Bank-financed Sierra Leone Pay and Performance Project-the objective of which is to improve the performance of the civil service in Sierra Leone by targeting a narrowly defined set of critical reforms. The paper concludes that intensive, client-led engagement together with use of a results-based lending instrument provide a promising way forward on a difficult reform agenda.

Fragile states --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Sector Development --- Public service reform --- Sierra Leone

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These remarks were delivered by David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group, at the G20 Leaders Summit held in Osaka, Japan. He spoke about how giving women better access to economic opportunities is critical to eliminate differences in living standards between men and women. He highlighted We-Fi which is so important and how the Bank was proud to celebrate its two-year anniversary in Osaka. He spoke about the developing countries and the Bank's role in actively identifying changes in the private sector environment that will attract investment and enable higher living standards and better lives. He explained the Bank's work in fragile states, such as the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, to help countries build stronger foundations so that young people are more able to stay rather than seeking to immigrate. He discussed reducing inequality and realizing inclusive and sustainable growth around the world, and how addressing these requires jobs, education, healthcare, attention to the environment, and robust commerce and trade among neighbors and nations. He concluded by saying that the Bank would continue to work with all the nations on these challenges.

Business Environment --- Fragile States --- Gender --- Inequality --- Living Standards --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Investment --- Private Sector Development

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This sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are also provided. This new report builds on the scenario-based modeling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. The two reports' combined findings provide, for the first time, a global picture of the potential scale of internal climate migration across the six regions, allowing for a better understanding of how slow-onset climate change impacts, population dynamics, and development contexts shape mobility trends. They also highlight the far-sighted planning needed to meet this challenge and ensure positive and sustainable development outcomes. The combined results across the six regions show that without early and concerted climate and development action, as many as 216 million people could move within their own countries due to slow-onset climate change impacts by 2050. They will migrate from areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by sea-level rise and storm surges. Hotspots of internal climate migration could emerge as early as 2030 and continue to spread and intensify by 2050. The reports also finds that rapid and concerted action to reduce global emissions, and support green, inclusive, and resilient development, could significantly reduce the scale of internal climate migration.

Adaptation To Climate Change --- Climate Change --- Climate Change Impacts --- Demographics --- Environment --- Fragile States --- Human Migrations and Resettlements --- Mobility --- Poverty Reduction

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This report provides the foundation for a new approach to service delivery in violence-affected contexts that is sensitive to the actual forms of violence, politics, and bargaining encountered in many conflict-affected states. The findings unearth issues about how development organizations should approach service delivery in contested settings. As many countries today are riven by conflict and internal division, some familiar rules of the game may be inadequate to deal with the mounting humanitarian and development challenges posed by complex conflict situations, particularly where affected people need access to social services. This raises dilemmas about the ethical and political judgments and trade-offs that development actors frequently have to make. A key challenge is whether development actors can adapt their procedures and ways of working to the fluidity, uncertainties, and risk taking that the new, conflict-riven landscape demands while preserving financial accountability, doing no harm, and ensuring aid effectiveness. Based on research in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nepal, the report probes how social service delivery is affected by violent conflict and what are the critical factors that make or break successful delivery.

Access of Poor to Social Services --- Conflict and Development --- Fragile States --- Governance --- Local Government --- Post Conflict Reconstruction --- Poverty Reduction --- Violence