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Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift.
Aging --- Fiscal Sustainability --- Growth
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This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) provides the main elements of the cooperation between the Republic of Tajikistan and the World Bank Group during the five years spanning FY19-23. The CPF builds on the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) of FY15-18, and incorporates the Implementation Note (IN) for the IDA18 Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR). The overarching goal of the CPF is to support Tajikistan in adopting policies geared towards reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. to this end, the CPF is aligned with the National Development Strategy (NDS) and the Medium-Term Development Program (2016-20) of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan. CPF priorities have been informed by consultations with key stakeholders.This CPF has been developed at a critical time for Tajikistan, with several external changes having opened a window of opportunity; taking advantage of these would substantially enhance the country's growth trajectory and increase resilience. Changes include the recent opening of borders with China and Uzbekistan during 2016-17 and increased trade with Afghanistan, reversing more than a century of adverse historic developments. These developments have reopened nearby export markets and reduced the costs of trading with new markets. to succeed in this potentially transformative move towards an economy integrated with neighbors and wider markets, Tajikistan will need to address principal structural, macroeconomic, and environmental legacy issues. Going forward, fiscal constraints, persisting inequalities, and a deceleration in poverty reduction call for an urgent upgrade of policies. Adopting policies that ensure opportunity for all, allow for more openness and accountability, protect the poor, and address inequalities will reduce fragility, increase resilience, and improve citizens' standard of living.
Climate Change --- Fiscal Sustainability --- Gender --- Migration --- Poverty --- State-Owned Enterprises
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En las democracias occidentales, los mecanismos de equilibrio de poder incorporados en las estructuras gubernamentales formaron la parte central de la buena administracion y ayudaron a otorgar facultades a los ciudadanos durante mas de 200 anos. No obstante, muchos paises en desarrollo siguen sufriendo debido a sistemas de administracion que no son satisfactorios y que, a menudo, son disfuncionales, entre otras razones, por la asignacion de recursos inapropiada, los sistemas de ingresos ineficientes y la prestacion deficiente de servicios publicos fundamentales. Este libro aborda estos problemas y proporciona herramientas para ayudar a evaluar la situacion fiscal de un Gobierno desde la perspectiva de la rendicion de cuentas publica e incluye la economia politica del presupuesto, la elaboracion de presupuestos en funcion del desempeno, el desempeno segun los ingresos, la gestion de deudas, la medicion del patrimonio neto de un Gobierno, la evaluacion de riesgos fiscales, la reforma del servicio civil y el fortalecimiento de las instituciones de rendicion de cuentas.
Contingent Liability --- Fiscal Risk --- Fiscal Sustainability --- Governance --- Government Accountability
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The economic shock of the coronavirus outbreak has an unprecedented impact on public finances. Governments are implementing massive fiscal packages including both budgetary and nonbudgetary measures to fight the pandemic while receipts are sharply down. Communicating the financial consequences of Coronavirus (COVID-19) to all stakeholders in a timely manner is important to create enduring broad support. Audited financial statements play a key role in building citizen trust in government. This policy note provides reflections on how governments could make use of existing systems of financial reporting during the pandemic as well as opportunities for improved financial reporting systems for the post-crisis environment. It also seeks to share insights into the impact of the pandemic on government financial performance, position, and cash flows.
Accountability --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Fiscal Sustainability --- International Financial Reporting Standards --- Public Debt --- Public Sector Development
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This Fiscal and Debt Sustainability Note, the first module of a programmatic multisectoral Public Expenditure Review (PER), reviews the recent macro-fiscal challenges, analyzes their causes and consequences and provide policy options for enhancing the conduct of fiscal and PFM policies in the country. The first part of this module draws on the Boost database to provide a comprehensive overview of the budget covering both revenues and expenditures. It analyzes the composition of the budget (based on economic and functional classifications) and discusses the most critical PFM issues the country faces. It also assesses budget execution and the efficiency of public expenditure. The second part of the module focuses on fiscal risks and their implications for medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability. It examines the recent evolution of public debt, its main drivers and relationship to economic growth. It describes recent reforms to address fiscal and debt vulnerabilities and how these reforms have been affected by the global pandemic. It also analyzes the main fiscal risks with a focus on those stemming from State-Own Enterprises (SOEs), local councils, litigations, natural disasters, and health crises. This part uses simulations to analyze the most likely evolution of the public debt path over the next 20 years under alternative risk scenarios. Finally, the module proposes practical and actionable policy options to help improve the macro-fiscal environment over the short term and preserve debt sustainability over the medium term.
Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal Sustainability --- Public Debt --- Public Sector Development --- State-Owned Enterprises
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The objective of this public expenditure review (PER) is to provide the government with options for fiscal consolidation and support macroeconomic stability in the medium-term. This PER addresses the broad topic of expenditure efficiency and examines options for expenditure rationalization to help return Kenya's fiscal accounts to a prudent trajectory in the medium-term. The PER is being undertaken as a programmatic analytical product with two modules. The first module focuses on identifying options for expenditure rationalization and measures to strengthen within-year expenditure control for better expenditure management. The second module to be delivered in FY21 will focus on efficiency, effectiveness, and equity of spending within public services delivery sectors of education, health, and disaster risk financing. The report builds upon several other Bank-led reports that contribute to the discussion around improving public expenditure and strengthening expenditure controls in Kenya. It complements an ongoing governance for enabling service delivery and public investments in Kenya (GESDeK) project, which is at the forefront in supporting numerous reforms highlighted in this PER to improve efficiency in spending and strengthen expenditure controls. The report is organized as follows: chapter one contains the macro context, trends, and composition of spending, overall balance and debt. Chapter two contains the fiscal and debt sustainability analysis while chapter three presents options for expenditure rationalization in Kenya. Chapter four ties it all together with fiscal savings and policy recommendations.
Debt Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal Sustainability --- Public Debt --- Public Procurement --- Public Sector Development
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Mexico's economy has grown moderately over the last quarter century, with annual per capita GDP growth averaging just 1.2 percent between 1990 and 2017. The country's weak economic performance reflected a decline in productivity, which fell by 8 percent during that period. Mexico's productivity challenges are associated with large and widening regional disparities and the misallocation of resources between sectors and firms. Large productive firms integrated with Global Value Chains have not developed backward linkages to the rest of the economy and lagging regions. Meanwhile, widespread labor and firm informality contributes to the misallocation of productive resources. Reversing the decline in productivity will require an integrated strategy encompassing multiple policy areas and sectors. This broad strategy should include strategies discussed in other policy notes: (i) alleviating rigidities and distortions in labor markets and improving access to credit; (ii) alleviating existing rigidities and obstacles to competition across sectors and sub-sectors while following through with the structural reforms enacted; (iii) designing and implementing effective interventions at the subnational levels to enhance both product and factor markets; (iv) dealing with the financing of social insurance schemes; and (iv) strengthening rule of law institutions at the federal and local levels. This note focuses on critical aspects of the diagnostic around the productivity dynamics in Mexico. It also links the aspects of the strategy above-highlighted to specific policy recommendations on other Policy Notes of this set given the cross-cutting nature of productivity growth. It also focuses on providing policy directions on: (i) strengthening institutions and programs working directly on the productivity agenda; (ii) selected sub-national interventions to ease the regulatory burden; and (iii) proposing a broad and integrated strategy for fostering formalization.
Climate Change --- Federalism --- Fiscal Sustainability --- Labor Policy --- Productivity --- Water Resource Management
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The purpose of this work is to analyze the performance of the Ecuadorian pension system, its challenges, and available policy options. Therefore, the study analyzes coverage, financing sufficiency, and sustainability indicators that were created based on information from the Encuesta Nacional de Empleo, Desempleo y Subempleo (National Employment, Unemployment and Underemployment Survey) that was carried out over 2003-16. Likewise, actuarial simulations are made by using the World Bank pension reform options simulation toolkit. The findings show that, although in the latest 13 years there has been coverage extension, resulting from an increase in reported employment and an extension of noncontributory pensions, current coverage is still insufficient. In addition to the challenge posed to coverage extension, in the medium term, population aging would exert some pressure on financial sustainability that, within the current framework, would imply a deficit trend starting in the mid-2030s. However, some public policy areas, parametric as well as structural, have been identified that, together with an extension of noncontributory coverage, may provide a more supportive and sustainable scheme.
Fiscal Sustainability --- Pension Reform --- Pension Systems --- Pensions and Retirement Systems --- Public Pensions --- Social Protections and Labor
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This paper aims to provide a framework for conducting public sector employment and compensation assessments that can help develop evidence-based reforms. Such a framework is necessary given growing debt distress and the need for greater expenditure efficiency in many of the World Bank's client countries, and also due to the urgency for addressing global challenges like pandemics, climate change, building human capital, and reducing inequality, all of which require a strong role for the public sector.
Employment and Unemployment --- Fiscal Sustainability --- Labor Markets --- Public Sector Development --- Social Protections and Labor
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Effective public debt management is a cornerstone of financial stability and sustainable fiscal policy. The composition of public debt has been an important factor in many economic and financial crises, as excessive exposure to changes in exchange rates and interest rates can result in large negative impacts on public finances. During the 2008-2009 crisis, however, middle-income countries generally performed well. The Colombian government has embarked on a series of reforms aimed at reducing vulnerability of the government's balance sheet to financial shocks. This report summarizes the main outcomes of the Government Debt and Risk Management Program (GDRM) in Colombia. The World Bank (WB) delivered this technical assistance (TA) through its Government Debt and Risk Management (GDRM) program, supporting Colombia, in particular the General Directorate of Public Credit and National Treasury (DGCPTN), in implementing the priority public debt management reforms. This report summarizes the main outcomes achieved by the DGCPTN under the GDRM framework, which has a strong focus on outcomes. The report is divided into five sections, with each section corresponding to a focus area of the GDRM program. In turn, each section is divided in three subsections as follows: (i) progress made until March 2016; (ii) recommendations for further strengthening public debt and cash management in the respective areas; and (iii) potential future technical assistance as discussed with the authorities during the latest mission (March 2016).
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