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This thesis aims at investigating the market anomaly quality as defined by Asness, Frazzini and Pedersen (2017) in their “Quality Minus Junk” factor. The undertaken study refines the quality stocks definition and its complexity. The concept of the quality anomaly has been for years arduous to portray, as its meaning is highly subjective and differs from one academician to another. Quality is occasionally not seen as a “pure anomaly” since it consists of an aggregation of numerous factors and ratios. This memoir is willing to enlighten this interpretation puzzle. The basic concepts of market theories and portfolio management are introduced and discussed, just like the evolution of pricing models. The most distinguished anomalies, other than quality, are acquainted as a preface for the quality concept debate. Hence, the QMJ factor (Asness, Frazzini, & Pedersen, 2017) is analyzed in its three components; profitability, growth and safety. A replica of its ratios is built using SAS software with the goal to simulate Fama/French styled long-short portfolios based on a CRSP/Compustat dataset. The computed portfolios are regressed on QMJ and analyzed using SAS Miner software, along with descriptive statistics, correlations, cumulated returns and Sharpe ratios. The results show that the growth component may be entirely dismissed without damaging the model. The safety factors greatly matter in the regressions and strengthen their roles into quality. Return on equity, return on assets and cash flows are profitability ratios that are significant in the definition as well. While the signals of gross profits are remarkably persistent and drove the quality performance in all empirical analyses. Hence, the source of quality is identified by these late six final ratios, cutting the complexity of the definition by more than two.
quality --- factor investing --- portfolio simulation --- qmj --- gross profit --- market anomaly --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance
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This thesis highlights the complexity of Quality investing and the underlying large dispersion in Quality definitions. Indeed, there exists a fundamental difference in the perceptions of Quality between practitioners and academicians. Moreover, since academic studies appear to focus on Quality measures that have significant predictive power for stock returns, their Quality definitions tend to constantly outperform Quality definitions emanating from the industry. In an attempt to first reconcile practitioners and then impulse a convergence towards academic definitions, a survey has been carried out on a sample of practitioners with the aim of designing a generally accepted Quality definition made out of Quality measures supported by academic studies. Globally this Quality definition encompasses four dimensions – i.e. Profitability (captured by ROIC), Quality Earnings (captured by low accruals), Growth (captured by 3-year growth in cash flow over assets and 3-year growth in gross margin) and Safety (captured by low leverage).The Quality Minus Junk factor constructed on this new definition experiences, in fact, poor return performance in comparison to purely academic measures over a time period spanning from 2005 to 2015. This suggests that even when confronted to what exists in the academic side, practitioners stick to their comprehensive and pragmatic vision of Quality and do not improve the predictive power of their definition. In the light of these findings, one can expect the convergence towards a unique and effective Quality definition to be extremely complex so that funds which offer exposure to the quality factor should be cautious about their returns expectations and the way they market their strategy.
factor investing --- quality investing --- investment --- asset pricing --- Quality minus junk --- quality --- junk --- portfolio management --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance
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Le rapport suivant a été écrit dans le cadre de mon stage dans l'entreprise « Behave! ». Son principal objectif est d’identifier et de défendre le modèle de Machine Learning le plus pertinent dans la cadre de prévisions portant sur 7 styles d’investissement différents : « Growth », « Momentum », « Quality », « Size », « Value », « Volatility » et « Yield ». Étant donné que ce mémoire est rédigé selon une orientation "rapport d’entreprise", une part importante de ce document est consacrée à la construction de modèles et à l’analyse de résultats. De nombreuses recherches académiques ont néanmoins dû être effectuées et viendront, aussi souvent que possible, appuyer les conclusions établies au fur et à mesure des chapitres. Ma tâche au sein de l’entreprise peut être divisée en trois étapes majeures, il en va de même pour la construction de ce rapport. Premièrement, les facteurs de risque sont définis et systématiquement liés à leurs styles d’investissement. C’est l’occasion d’étudier les techniques utilisées par l’entreprise pour les calculer. Dans un deuxième temps, ce sont les modèles de Machine Learning qui sont définis et appliqués à un exemple simple en utilisant les logiciels « RStudio » et « Microsoft Azure Cortana Intelligence ». Dans ce mémoire, l’approche se limite aux modèles suivants : « Hidden Markov », « Random Forest », « Support Vector Machine » et « Neural Network ». Il s’agira enfin d’appliquer ces modèles aux styles d’investissement proposés par l’entreprise afin de pouvoir faire des comparaisons qui serviront ensuite de base à mes recommandations finales.
Machine Learning, factor investing, growth, momentum, quality, size, --- value, volatility, hidden markov, support vector machine, neural --- network, random forest, artificial intelligence, confusion matrix, --- performance, accuracy, investment, ESG criteria --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance --- Ingénierie, informatique & technologie > Sciences informatiques
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Financial Risk Measurement is a challenging task, because both the types of risk and the techniques evolve very quickly. This book collects a number of novel contributions to the measurement of financial risk, which address either non-fully explored risks or risk takers, and does so in a wide variety of empirical contexts.
risk assessment --- mortgage portfolio --- insider trade --- contagion effect --- risk capital --- liquidity risk --- hedonic modeling --- rolling wavelet correlation --- inverse coefficient of variation --- exchange traded funds --- sovereign risk/debt --- securitized real estate and local stock markets --- portfolio optimization --- portfolio analysis --- risk premium --- performance measurement --- risk analysis --- contagion --- outperformance probability --- Sharpe ratio --- probability of default --- small and medium enterprises --- RAROC --- sovereign defaults --- risk attribution --- multiresolution analysis --- credit ratings --- debt maturity structure --- herding --- asset-backed securities --- modern portfolio theory --- housing segments --- analytic hierarchy process --- African countries --- Asian firms --- decentralization --- credit scoring --- dependence --- mutual funds --- spillover effect --- capital allocation --- copulas --- matched filter --- institutional holding --- crop insurance --- factor investing --- wavelet coherence and phase difference --- risk --- value-at-risk --- rearrangement algorithm
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