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This eBook is a collection of articles from a Frontiers Research Topic. Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers Journals Series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area! Find out more on how to host your own Frontiers Research Topic or contribute to one as an author by contacting the Frontiers Editorial Office: frontiersin.org/about/contact

sustainable agriculture --- greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation --- C transformation and stability --- extreme weather events --- elevated CO2 and O3

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This eBook is a collection of articles from a Frontiers Research Topic. Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers Journals Series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area! Find out more on how to host your own Frontiers Research Topic or contribute to one as an author by contacting the Frontiers Editorial Office: frontiersin.org/about/contact

Science: general issues --- Medical microbiology & virology --- Microbiology (non-medical) --- sustainable agriculture --- greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation --- C transformation and stability --- extreme weather events --- elevated CO2 and O3

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In today's world, almost all extreme natural events could be described as disaster. Of the 25 most costly disasters since 1970, all occurred after 1987 and 23 of them are linked to climatic conditions. And it doesn't just happen to others. France, too, is not spared: 88 dead and 9 billion euros of damage for the storms of December 1999, nearly 15,000 deaths for the heat wave from 1 to 20 August 2003. The recent storm Xynthia, with its ruptures of dikes, caused 53 deaths, adding to so many other tragedies that occurred in flood zones, and questioning us. For example, are we ready to face a flood comparable to that of 1910 in the Paris of tomorrow? In the current climate change climate, we know that we have to prepare for more dangerous, sometimes unprecedented, extreme events. These events see their effects amplified by urban development, overcrowding of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real "poverty traps" for the poorest countries on the Planet. This is the subject of this report by the Academy of Sciences which analyzes the question of these extreme climatic events and their foreseeable consequences on the economic, social, health and security systems. There is therefore a real need for anticipation: is our country ready to respond to it? Is it participating enough in international actions to reduce risks? Does it have appropriate scientific information? Dans le monde d'aujourd'hui, presque tous les événements naturels extrêmes pourraient être qualifiés de désastre. Sur les 25 catastrophes les plus couteuses depuis 1970, toutes sont survenues après 1987 et 23 d'entre elles sont liées aux conditions climatiques. Et cela n'arrive pas qu'aux autres. La France, elle non plus, n'est pas épargnée : 88 morts et 9 milliards d'euros de dégats pour les tempêtes de décembre 1999, près de 15000 décès pour la canicule du 1er au 20 aout 2003. La récente tempête Xynthia, avec ses ruptures de digues, a provoqué 53 morts, s'ajoutant à tant d'autres tragédies survenues dans des zones inondables, et nous interrogeant. Sommes-nous prêts par exemple à affronter une crue comparable à celle de 1910 dans le Paris de demain ? Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, nous savons que nous devons nous préparer à des événements extrêmes plus dangereux, quelquefois inédits. Ces événements voient leurs effets amplifiés par le développement urbain, le surpeuplement des zones littorales et l'anthropisation des milieux naturels. Ils représentent de véritables « trappes à pauvreté » pour les pays les plus pauvres de la Planète. C'est l'objet de ce rapport de l'Académie des Sciences qui analyse la question de ces événements climatiques extrêmes et de leurs conséquences prévisibles sur les systèmes économiques, sociaux, sanitaires et de sécurité. Un réel besoin d'anticipation existe donc : notre pays est-il prêt à y répondre? Participe-t-il suffi samment aux actions internationales visant à réduire les risques? Dispose-t-il d'une information scientifique appropriée?

Natural disasters --- Biotic communities --- Hazardous geographic environments --- Climatic changes --- Climatology --- Control --- Conservation --- Management --- Social aspects --- Forecasting. --- Risk assessment --- Government policy. --- academy of sciences --- extreme weather events

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The current global context, characterised by significant demographic growth and an increase
in food insecurity, presents a significant challenge to maintaining the levels of agricultural pro-
duction required to meet global food demand. This is particularly in light of the impact of
climate change, which is a major obstacle to achieving this goal. Climate change is defined by
an increase in global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, in conjunction with
an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events linked to precipitation
patterns and temperature. While the specific results may vary depending on the climate model
employed, the majority of future climate projections concur on the overall amplification of these
disturbances. Consequently, the agricultural sector in Wallonia is confronted with a significant
climatic challenge. Winter wheat is the most cultivated cereal in Belgium. Additionally, crop
models can be employed to simulate crop growth and productivity in disparate environmental
contexts and under varying management practices. One such model is STICS, which is held in
high regard for its robustness and its capacity to simulate a range of stress types for the plant.
Consequently, the aim of this study is to spatialise the STICS model, which simulates winter
wheat cultivation under different soil and climatic conditions in Wallonia, in order to assess the
vulnerability of this crop to changes in the climatic context under different warming scenarios
(4.5 W.m−2 and 8.5 W.m−2) and different climate models (MPI-ESM-MR and MIROC5) in the
medium (2040-2070) and long term (2070-2100). Furthermore, the study seeks to examine the
potential spatial variability of vulnerability at the Walloon territorial level and to establish a
metric for assessing the vulnerability of winter wheat. To this end, the decision was taken to
simulate the growth of a single variety cultivated in accordance with a standardised technical
itinerary, thereby focusing the study on the environmental component of the phenotype, in-
cluding the climatic and soil aspects. The inter-annual yield stability index was selected as a
means of reflecting the vulnerability of winter wheat. The results of these simulations indicate
a decline in productivity stability as the climate scenario becomes more intense. This variation
in stability also reflects significant spatial variability, which serves to highlight the increased
vulnerability of regions that are generally characterised by high historical yields. The climate
models indicate comparable trends, although the MIROC5 model produces greater spatial vari-
ability in stability. It can be concluded that the vulnerability in question is dependent on the
climate model that is employed. Furthermore, an inverse correlation was identified between
excess water stress and winter wheat productivity, particularly during the vegetative phase of
development. This finding justifies the calculation of the SPEI-3 agrometeorological index and
the use of its May value as a vulnerability metric. The lowest yields were associated with spring
water surpluses in extremely wet years, as evidenced by the inclusion of this variable in four
case studies. A further extension of this study to other field crops in Wallonia, coupled with
more precise input data, would appear to represent a relevant avenue for the assessment of the
differences in vulnerability of agricultural production to climate threats. Le contexte mondial actuel, dicté par une croissance démographique importante et une
insécurité alimentaire montrant des tendances à la hausse, fait face à un obstacle de taille
dans le maintien des niveaux de production agricole nécessaire pour subvenir à la demande ali-
mentaire globale : le changement climatique. Celui-ci est caractérisé par une augmentation de la
température globale et des niveaux de dioxyde de carbone atmosphérique à laquelle s’ajoute une
hausse de la fréquence et de l’amplitude de phénomènes climatiques extrêmes liés aux régimes
de précipitations et aux températures. Bien que des résultats relativement différents puissent
être observés selon le modèle climatique soliscité, les projections climatiques futurs s’accordent
sur l’amplification globale de ces perturbations. Les productions agricoles wallonnes sont donc
confrontées à une menace climatique sérieuse. Le froment d’hiver constitue la première céréale
cultivée à l’échelle nationale belge. Parallèlement, les modèles de culture permettent de simuler
la croissance et la productivité des cultures dans différents contextes environementaux et selon
des pratiques de gestions variables. Parmi ces modèles se trouve STICS, apprécié pour sa
robustesse et sa capacité à simuler différents types de stress pour la plante. Par conséquent,
cette étude a pour objectif de spatialiser le modèle STICS simulant la culture de froment d’hiver
dans les différents contextes pédoclimatiques de Wallonie afin d’évaluer la vulnérabiltié de cette
culture face à l’évolution du contexte climatique selon différents scénarios de réchauffements
(4.5 W.m−2 et 8.5 W.m−2 ) et différents modèles climatiques (MPI-ESM-MR et MIROC5) à
moyen (2040-2070) et long terme (2070-2100). L’étude de l’éventuelle variabilité spatiale de la
vulnérabilité à l’échelle territoriale wallonne ainsi que la définition d’une métrique permettant
de qualifier la vulnérabilité du froment d’hiver constituent également des objectifs de l’étude.
Pour y parvenir, il a été choisi de simuler la croissance d’une variété unique conduite selon un
itinéraire technique standardisé afin de focaliser l’étude sur la composante environnementale du
phénotype incluant l’aspect climatique et pédologique. Le calcul de l’indice de stabilité interan-
nuelle des rendements a été sélectionné afin de traduire la vulnérabilité du froment d’hiver. Les
résultats émergeant de ces simulations suggèrent une chute de stabilité de productivité à mesure
que le scénario climatique s’intensifie. Cette variation de stabilité répond également à une vari-
abilité spatiale notable, mettant ainsi en avant la vulnérabilité accrue de régions généralement
caractérisées par des rendements historiques importants. Les modèles climatiques suggèrent des
tendances similaires mais le modèle MIROC5 simule une variabilité spatiale de stabilité plus im-
portante. La vulnérabilité apparait dès lors comme dépendante du modèle climatique soliscité.
Finalement, le stress hydrique par excès d’eau s’est révélé très négativement corrélé à la pro-
ductivité du froment d’hiver et ce en particulier lors de la phase végétative du développement.
Ce constat justifie le calcul de l’indice agrométéorologique SPEI-3 et l’utilisation de sa valeur
mois de mai comme métrique de vulnérabilité. Son intégration à quatre études de cas a permis
de constater l’association des rendements les plus bas aux excédents hydriques printaniers lors
d’années extrêmement humides. L’extension de cette étude aux autres grandes cultures de
Wallonie couplée à une précision accrue des données d’entrée semble pertinente afin d’évaluer
les différences de vulnérabilité des productions agricoles face à la menace climatique.

climate change --- winter wheat --- crop models --- yield stability --- precipitation patterns --- extreme weather events --- changement climtatique --- froment d'hiver --- modèles de culture --- stabilité des rendements --- régimes de précipitations --- évènements climatiques extrêmes --- Sciences du vivant > Agriculture & agronomie

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National governments are key actors in managing the impacts of extreme weather events, yet many highly exposed developing countries - faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness, and limited donor assistance - have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged infrastructure and restore livelihoods after major disasters. Such financial vulnerability hampers development and exacerbates poverty. Based on the record of the past 30 years, this paper finds many developing countries, in particular small island states, to be highly financially vulnerable, and experiencing a resource gap (net disaster losses exceed all available financing sources) for events that occur with a probability of 2 percent or higher. This has three main implications. First, efforts to reduce risk need to be ramped-up to lessen the serious human and financial burdens. Second, contrary to the well-known Arrow-Lind theorem, there is a case for country risk aversion implying that disaster risks faced by some governments cannot be absorbed without major difficulty. Risk aversion entails the ex ante financing of losses and relief expenditure through calamity funds, regional insurance pools, or contingent credit arrangements. Third, financially vulnerable (and generally poor) countries are unlikely to be able to implement pre-disaster risk financing instruments themselves, and thus require technical and financial assistance from the donor community. The cost estimates of financial vulnerability - based on today's climate - inform the design of "climate insurance funds" to absorb high levels of sovereign risk and are found to be in the lower billions of dollars annually, which represents a baseline for the incremental costs arising from future climate change.

Banks & Banking Reform --- Climate change --- Climate Change Economics --- Damages --- Debt Markets --- Disaster --- Disaster aid --- Disaster risk --- Disaster risks --- Disasters --- Drought --- Extreme event --- Extreme events --- Extreme weather --- Extreme weather events --- Famine --- Farmers --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Flooding --- Hazard Risk Management --- Insurance --- Insurance & Risk Mitigation --- Insurance contract --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Natural disaster --- Natural hazards --- Relief --- Urban Development