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The paper finds that simple econometric specifications yield surprising rich and complex dynamics -- relative prices respond to the nominal exchange rate and pass-through effects, import and export volumes respond to relative price changes, and the trade balance responds to changes in import and export values.
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This paper reviews the outlook for the Fund's income position for the financial year 2009 taking into account developments through the first half of the year. The FY 2009 income outlook has improved, mainly as a result of new lending activity associated with the turmoil in global financial markets, together, to a lesser extent, with stronger-than-projected returns in the Investment Account (IA) in the first half of the financial year. The updated projections indicate that the net income position would be slightly positive in FY 2009. However, the actual outcome remains subject to considerable uncertainty related to the timing and amounts of disbursements under current arrangements, as well as potential new arrangements and the performance of the IA.
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