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Geology, Structural --- Seismology --- Geomagnetism --- Mohorovicic discontinuity --- Italy
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This is the first study to investigate the short- and long-term causal effects of a child-labor ban. The study explores the law that increased the minimum employment age from 14 to 16 in Brazil in 1998, and uncovers its impact on time allocated to schooling and work in the short term and on school attainment and labor market outcomes in the long term. The analysis uses cross-sectional data from 1998 to 2014, and applies a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of the ban at different points of individuals' lifecycles. The estimates show that the ban reduced the incidence of boys in paid work activities by 4 percentage points or 27 percent. The study finds that the fall in child labor is mostly explained by the change in the proportions of boys working for pay and studying, and observes an increase in the proportion of boys only studying as a consequence. The results suggest that the ban reduced boys' participation in the labor force. The study follows the same cohort affected by the ban over the years, and finds that the short-term effects persisted until 2003 when the boys turned 18. The study pooled data from 2007 to 2014 to check whether the ban affected individuals' stock of human capital and labor market outcomes. The estimates suggest that the ban did not have long-term effects for the whole cohort, but found some indication that it did negatively affect the log earnings of individuals at the lower tail of the earnings distribution.
Child-Labor Ban --- Labor-Market Experience --- Regression Discontinuity Design --- School Attainment --- Social Protections and Labor
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Functioning democracy requires that citizens reward politicians who deliver benefits, yet there is surprisingly little causal evidence of changes in citizen views or behavior in response to specific government programs. This question is examined in Tanzania, which has recently implemented large health programs targeting diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria. Tanzania's 2010-2011 national anti-malaria campaign took place concurrently with a national household survey, which enables a regression discontinuity design based on interview date to estimate the effect of this program on the popularity of local politicians. Bed net distribution results in large, statistically significant improvements in the approval levels of political leaders, especially in malaria endemic areas. Effects are largest shortly after program implementation, but smaller effects persist for up to six months. These findings suggest that citizens update their evaluation of politicians in response to programs, especially when these services address important problems, and that the effects decay over time, but not completely.
Health --- Insecticide-Treated Bed Nets --- Malaria --- Political Economy --- Regression Discontinuity Design
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Le temps, en archéologie, est un temps construit. Comment distinguer parmi les innovations celles qui modifient profondément les sociétés ? Comment apprécier les dynamiques du changement ? Comment l’évolution, imperceptible ou brutale, devient-elle révolution, subversive et refondatrice ? Ce volume prend appui sur la richesse des aires chrono-culturelles étudiées par les doctorants de l’ED 112 pour témoigner et débattre des manières dont nous percevons les transformations et leurs effets sur les sociétés du passé. Sur un temps court, les changements, brusques ou discrets, esquissent une dynamique évolutive. Il s’agit alors de les expliquer : déterminisme environnemental, fonctionnel, culturel, influence externe ou innovation locale. Mais il faut aussi estimer sur un temps long l’impact réel de ces bouleversements dans l’histoire. Les rythmes des mutations deviennent ainsi un indicateur de la stabilité d’une société et peuvent révéler sa transformation profonde. De la révolution de l’agriculture à la Révolution française, le dynamisme des sociétés humaines ne tient-il pas de leur capacité à toujours se renouveler ?
History & Archaeology --- Sociology & Anthropology --- évolution --- révolution --- transformation --- permanences --- innovation --- rupture --- evolution --- revolution --- change --- permanency --- time discontinuity
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While most evaluations of education programs in developing countries examine effects one or two years after a program has been introduced, this study does so over an extended duration of a program. Administered in Punjab, Pakistan, the program offers cash benefits to households conditional on girls' regular attendance in secondary grades in government schools. The study evaluates the evolution of the program's effects on girls' secondary school enrollment numbers over roughly a decade of its existence. The program was targeted to districts with low adult literacy rates, a targeting mechanism that provides an observed, numerical program assignment variable and results in a cutoff value. Recent advances in regression discontinuity designs allow the study to appropriately fit key features of the data. The study finds that the program had positive effects on girls' secondary school enrollment numbers throughout the period and that these effects were stable. This pattern is observed despite a loss of more than 60 percent in the real value of the cash benefit over the period. The findings are consistent with potential behavioral explanations, such as the program making girls' education salient to households or catalyzing a shift in social norms around girls' education.
Conditional Cash Transfer --- Education --- Enrollment --- Gender --- Gender and Education --- Literacy --- Poverty Reduction --- Regressive Discontinuity Study --- Secondary Education
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Der Band erforscht das Interventionspotential kleinster Zeiteinheiten und fragt, wie literarische, musikalische und künstlerische Momentaufnahmen und Augenblicksaufzeichnungen mit Konzepten einer sprunghaften und diskontinuierlichen Zeitwahrnehmung korrespondieren. Die Beiträge zeigen, inwiefern der aktuelle Erregungsdiskurs über die Tyrannei des Moments und den flüchtigen Augenblick einen historischen Index hat und immer von dem unterschwelligen Mitlaufen der Reflexion über Subjektivität begleitet ist. Es werden verschiedene Modi des Entzugs von Moment und Augenblick offengelegt und gezeigt, wie die Auseinandersetzungsgeschichte auf diese Unzugänglichkeit mit einem eigenen Bilddenken reagiert. Mit Beiträgen von Eva Axer, Ursula Geitner, Toni Hildebrandt, Alexander Honold, Thomas Macho, Sigrid Nieberle, Birger Petersen, Eckhard Schumacher, Christian Wimplinger und Norbert Christian Wolf.
Zeitwissen --- Zeittaktung --- Kippmoment --- Diskontinuität --- Instantaneität --- Zeitdehnung --- Gegenwartsschock --- Musik --- Literatur --- Kunst --- moment --- discontinuity --- instantaneity --- time expansion --- present shock --- literature --- musik --- art
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This study estimates the causal effects of a public per-student subsidy program targeted at low-cost private schools in Pakistan on student enrollment and schooling inputs. Program entry is ultimately conditional on achieving a minimum stipulated student pass rate (cutoff) in a standardized academic test. This mechanism for treatment assignment allows the application of regression-discontinuity (RD) methods to estimate program impacts at the cutoff. Data on two rounds of entry test takers (phase 3 and phase 4) are used. Modeling the entry process of phase-4 test takers as a sharp RD design, the authors find evidence of large positive impacts on the number of students, teachers, classrooms, and blackboards. Modeling the entry process of phase-3 test takers as a partially-fuzzy RD design given treatment crossovers, they do not find evidence of significant program impacts on outcomes of interest. The latter finding is likely due to weak identification arising from a small jump in the probability of treatment at the cutoff.
Communities & Human Settlements --- Education --- Education For All --- Primary Education --- Private Schools --- Regression-Discontinuity Design --- Secondary Education --- Subsidies --- Teaching and Learning --- Tertiary Education --- Pakistan
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This study estimates the causal effects of a public per-student subsidy program targeted at low-cost private schools in Pakistan on student enrollment and schooling inputs. Program entry is ultimately conditional on achieving a minimum stipulated student pass rate (cutoff) in a standardized academic test. This mechanism for treatment assignment allows the application of regression-discontinuity (RD) methods to estimate program impacts at the cutoff. Data on two rounds of entry test takers (phase 3 and phase 4) are used. Modeling the entry process of phase-4 test takers as a sharp RD design, the authors find evidence of large positive impacts on the number of students, teachers, classrooms, and blackboards. Modeling the entry process of phase-3 test takers as a partially-fuzzy RD design given treatment crossovers, they do not find evidence of significant program impacts on outcomes of interest. The latter finding is likely due to weak identification arising from a small jump in the probability of treatment at the cutoff.
Communities & Human Settlements --- Education --- Education For All --- Primary Education --- Private Schools --- Regression-Discontinuity Design --- Secondary Education --- Subsidies --- Teaching and Learning --- Tertiary Education --- Pakistan
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The paper estimates the effects on presidential election returns in Mexico of a government climatic contingency transfer that is allocated through rainfall-indexed insurance. The analysis uses the discontinuity in payments that slightly deviate from a pre-established threshold, based on rainfall accumulation measured at local weather stations. It turns out that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering drought relief compensation. The paper finds that receiving indemnity payments leads to significantly greater average electoral support for the incumbent party of approximately 7.6 percentage points. The analysis suggests that the incumbent party is rewarded by disaster aid recipients and punished by non-recipients. The paper contributes to the literature on retrospective voting by providing evidence that voters evaluate government actions and respond to disaster spending.
Disaster Spending --- Environment --- Global Environment Facility --- Hazard Risk Management --- Industry --- Natural Disasters --- Political Accountability --- Poverty Reduction --- Regression Discontinuity --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Technology Industry --- Urban Development --- Voting
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