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The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon. This may reflect a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or also reflect specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.
Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Debts, Public --- Mathematical models. --- Mathematical models --- E-books --- Exports and Imports --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Debt sustainability --- External debt --- Debt burden --- Debt service --- Debts, External --- Burkina Faso
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This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.
Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Local currency debt --- Foreign currency debt --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Public debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- United States
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This paper presents an update to IMF staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis on Greece. Greece’s public debt has become highly unsustainable. This is owing to the easing of policies during 2014, with the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system adding significantly to the adverse dynamics. The financing need through end-2018 is now estimated at euro 85 billion, and debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years, provided that there is an early agreement on a program.
Debts, Public --- International Monetary Fund --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Public debt sustainability analysis --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Debt sustainability --- Commercial banks --- Fiscal policy --- External debt --- Financial institutions --- Debts, External --- Banks and banking --- Greece
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This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.
Exports and Imports --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Debt sustainability --- External debt --- Debt burden --- Debt default --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Debts, External --- United States
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Romania, along with many other countries in the European Union, faces daunting fiscal challenges. Fiscal balances deteriorated sharply following the global economic crisis, forcing Romania to implement a fiscal consolidation that was one of the largest in the European Union, but which may not be sustainable without a recovery of economic growth. Although the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product is still relatively modest, at around 35 percent, long-term fiscal solvency is threatened by the costs of funding the public pension system in the face of adverse demographic shifts over the next 50 years. Because of widespread tax evasion, the tax system in Romania is one of the least efficient in the European Union. Tax reforms that can reduce the amount of tax lost to evasion and fraud could make a major contribution to enhancing fiscal sustainability.
Debt Markets --- Debt sustainability --- Emerging Markets --- Fiscal Adjustment --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Sector Economics --- Public Sector Expenditure Policy --- Tax reforms
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While debt-financed productive public investment raises a country's debt ratios in the short run, it can also generate higher growth, revenues, and exports, leading over time to lower debt ratios. This paper develops a framework to assess whether countries meet the conditions for realizing the net benefits over the costs of public investment debt financing. While it is possible to achieve debt sustainability with an appropriate mix of concessional and non-concessional financing, this is a necessary but not sufficient condition. It is also important to ensure the operational viability of public investment projects by having in place adequate project management: (i) project screening and appraisal, (ii) a clear connection between capital and recurrent expenditures once the projects are launched, and (iii) safeguards for appropriate project implementation and facilities operations. To illustrate the strength of these results, the paper carries out three measurement exercises: (a) a simulation of the degree to which the ratio of optimal public investment responds to changes in key parameters related to project management in a general equilibrium model; (b) application of the public investment management (PIMa) index to benchmark a country's public investment management capacity; and (c) presentation of the results of the Investment, Savings, and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities tool aimed at tracking country choices in public finance and the impact of public projects on private investments.
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Romania, along with many other countries in the European Union, faces daunting fiscal challenges. Fiscal balances deteriorated sharply following the global economic crisis, forcing Romania to implement a fiscal consolidation that was one of the largest in the European Union, but which may not be sustainable without a recovery of economic growth. Although the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product is still relatively modest, at around 35 percent, long-term fiscal solvency is threatened by the costs of funding the public pension system in the face of adverse demographic shifts over the next 50 years. Because of widespread tax evasion, the tax system in Romania is one of the least efficient in the European Union. Tax reforms that can reduce the amount of tax lost to evasion and fraud could make a major contribution to enhancing fiscal sustainability.
Debt Markets --- Debt sustainability --- Emerging Markets --- Fiscal Adjustment --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Sector Economics --- Public Sector Expenditure Policy --- Tax reforms
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Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has one of the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability of Belize's public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize's debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year.
Risk (Insurance) --- Insurance --- Risk --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Natural Disasters --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Natural disasters --- Finance --- International economics --- Moral hazard --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Financial risk management --- Debts, External --- Belize
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The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), like other monetary unions, faces a number of challenges in dealing with macroeconomic shocks. The region experiences a large number of exogenous shocks: climate-related (e.g., droughts, floods), with a heavy toll on populations and agriculture, but also economic (e.g., terms of trade), with a large impact on key sectors and the cost of living. More generally business cycle synchronization within the WAEMU seems low. Addressing these shocks, while preserving the stability of the union, is therefore a critical issue in the WAEMU.This paper discusses these issues and suggests possible reforms.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic growth --- Monetary unions --- Public debt --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Business cycles --- Economic integration --- External debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Mali
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Low-income countries continue to face significant challenges in meeting their vast development needs while maintaining a sustainable debt position, even after many of these countries have benefited from substantial debt relief. These challenges are further exacerbated by changes in the financial landscape, including the emergence of new creditors and investors, the use of more complex financing vehicles, and the development of domestic markets. The joint World Bank/IMF debt sustainability framework is well placed to help address these challenges and reduce the risks of renewed episodes of debt distress. This paper explains the analytical underpinnings of the framework and the means to ensure its full effectiveness.
Developing countries --- Economic policy. --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Debt sustainability --- External debt --- Public debt --- Debt service --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Export credit --- United States
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