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Book
Cash Management : How Do Countries Perform Sound Practices?
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

Cash management is simply defined as making the right amount of money available at the right time and the right place to meet the government's obligations in the most cost-effective way. The main features of modern cash management are centralized government bank accounts and establishment of a Treasury Single Account, ability to make accurate cash flow forecasts, use of short-term financing instruments, and capacity for the investment of excess cash reserves. Establishing a sound cash management framework with the mentioned features is beneficial not only to the governments and public entities, but also to other stakeholders including the beneficiaries of government payments, banks and lenders. Given the recent COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and locked-down measures introduced in many countries, governments had to deal with unanticipated revenue decreases, and significantly increased public expenditures due to fiscal stimulus packages and pandemic related health expenditures. Therefore, existence of a well-structured government cash management is now even more important than before. This paper aims to explore cash flow forecasting and cash management practices in 24 countries in various regions, at different income levels and technical capacity, and alignment to good practices based on the information provided at the World Bank workshops on Cash Flow Forecasting and Cash Management held in 2018 and 2019. The paper also draws on experiences and practices from other emerging and advanced countries. Cases from different countries indicate that full implementation of modern cash management is still a challenge, even though the Treasury Single Account system is common in most countries and liquidity buffers were established or increased following the Global Financial Crisis. Cash flow forecasting is an area to improve given the accuracy, horizon and frequency of the projections are frequently limited. Fragmented institutional structure makes cash management even more challenging. Country cases also demonstrate that there is a significant room to strengthen coordination between debt and cash management and the use of short-term instruments to cover cash shortages. Investment of cash balances seems to be a bigger weakness as many countries keep their liquidity buffers in the Central Bank with no remuneration.


Book
Lao People's Democratic Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis.
Authors: ---
Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Lao P.D.R.'s risks of external and overall debt distress continue to be assessed as high. Under the revised low-income country debt sustainability framework (LIC DSF), its debt carrying capacity has deteriorated and most external and total public debt indicators breach their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks under the baseline scenarios. External debt indicators are most vulnerable to shocks to exports and depreciation of the currency. Public and external debt indicators are most sensitive to the contingent liabilities shock, while recent natural disasters underscore the need for strengthening buffers. The low level of reserves adds to these vulnerabilities. Factors, such as the large share of electricity export earnings under long-term intergovernmental power purchase agreements, and a strong and growing electricity exports market help mitigate risks, keeping the debt outlook sustainable. Market access is being maintained, around 65 percent of external debt is concessional, and the stock of expenditure arrears is declining. Rebuilding fiscal space, adopting clear guidelines for sovereign debt issuance and guarantees, assessing risks from contingent liabilities, and improving debt management are immediate priorities. Assessing and targeting infrastructure projects with high growth and social returns and financing these with concessional financing would benefit debt sustainability. Strengthening the business environment and governance, would improve the investment outlook, help diversify and make growth more inclusive. Increasing the export base, continuing to maximize the proportion of concessional loans and improving primary deficits would help to keep the debt burden contained.


Book
Cabo Verde - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis.
Authors: ---
Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Cabo Verde's risk of external and overall debt distress is rated "high" as in the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA). The present value (PV) of public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its threshold in 2019-2022 under the baseline and protractedly under stress test scenarios. The PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to recede below its threshold from 2026 under the baseline and breaches its prescribed limit under stress test scenarios. The debt sustainability assessment is predicated on sustained fiscal consolidation and successful restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Prudent borrowing policies and a strengthened debt management strategy are critical to containing debt accumulation. In view of Cabo Verde's vulnerability to exogenous shocks, growth-enhancing structural reforms remain critical to bringing public debt to sustainable levels.


Book
Liberia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis.
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) suggests that Liberia remains at moderate risk of debt distress with limited space to accommodate shocks. The country's debt carrying capacity remains medium, but the rating has declined from 3.1 to 2.77. The authorities have pursued non-concessional loans, but none has been disbursed yet. The government has instead borrowed U.S. dollars from the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) to close the financing gap in FY2018. Such new borrowing, as well as the legacy U.S. dollar debt from the civil war time, are both incorporated in the new DSA. The State-owned Enterprises (SOE) guaranteed debt is also incorporated. Liberia will edge closer to high risk of debt distress with a small change in the terms of both domestic and external debt or a failure to adjust primary expenditure to the available revenue envelope over the medium-term.


Book
Debt Transparency in Developing Economies
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Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Analyzing public debt in low-income developing countries (LIDCs) is like solving a puzzle with many missing pieces. Forty percent of LIDCs have not published any sovereign debt data in the last two years. Public debt data disclosed in different publications show discrepancies of up to 30 percent of GDP across sources, and relative to the records of relevant authorities. Over 15 LIDCs have outstanding collateralized debt but no details of the collateralization are provided in official statistics. Restructuring of bilateral and commercial debt is often handled privately. All these problems have different origins and implications. Yet, they all amount to a lack of transparency. The international community has become acutely aware of the importance of debt transparency after recent cases of "hidden debt" The "Tuna Bond" case in Mozambique highlighted the dangers of inadequate debt transparency. In 2016 two large previously unreported loans totaling 1.15 billion US Dollars -equal to about 9 percent of the country's GDP-were revealed. As a result, donor support was frozen, the economy plunged, and the government was forced to make deep cuts in public spending. The biggest losers were poor Mozambiquans. Nontransparent public debt can quickly alter the lives of millions of ordinary citizens. This report is the first comprehensive assessment of debt transparency in LIDCs. It presents a complete picture of the current challenges and the pending policy agenda for all stakeholders. It draws upon new databases and surveys to take stock of key gaps in debt reporting, borrowing practices and legal frameworks, offering a detailed and timely view on the current state of debt transparency in LIDCs. It also synthesizes recent studies and policy discussions on debt transparency and offers practical policy recommendations required to further improve debt transparency in LIDCs.


Book
Union of Comoros - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis.
Authors: ---
Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The Union of Comoros remains at moderate risk of external debt distress, but its space to absorb shocks is "limited." All debt burden indicators exhibit a continual upward trend, with the PV of debt-to-export approaching its threshold at the end of the assessment horizon (2029) under the baseline scenario. (Thresholds reflect "medium" capacity to carry debt). The reduced space to absorb shocks reflects the taking on of a large new loan, a downward revision of projected exports in line with lower export prices and impacts of Cyclone Kenneth on debt accumulation. Shock scenarios indicate vulnerability to a deterioration of export performance, natural disasters, and exchange rate instability. Comoros' overall risk of debt distress remains moderate, given that domestic debt is expected to remain minimal. The authorities need to strengthen policies to improve macroeconomic performance including by making faster progress on domestic resource mobilization and broadening the export base. The authorities should proceed cautiously on taking up any new debt and may wish to largely avoid new non-concessional debt.


Book
Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis.
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The risk of external and overall debt distress for Guyana remains moderate, but debt dynamics will improve significantly with the start of oil production in 2020. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative vulnerability thresholds under the baseline scenario, which incorporates the average long-term effects of oil on economic growth, fiscal balance, and current account position. The PV of external debt-to-GDP is projected to decline to 3 percent over the long-term as the need for external borrowing is offset by the accumulation of external assets. Stress tests indicate the susceptibility of Guyana's external public debt in a very extreme shock which combines simultaneous shocks to real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, other flows (current transfers and FDI), and nominal exchange rate depreciation, as well as second order effects arising from interactions among these shocks. The combined effects of these shocks and their second order effects cause temporary but significant breaches in the external debt thresholds, prompting a moderate risk rating. Nonetheless, Guyana has substantial space to absorb these shocks, reflecting the current low level of external debt. Guyana's medium- and long-term outlook is very favorable given the incoming oil production and revenues, which will eventually underpin fiscal surpluses and a reduction in external indebtedness. The authorities reiterated their commitment in preserving fiscal discipline.


Book
The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis.
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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An updated DSA indicates that The Gambia is in external debt distress, though its public debt is deemed sustainable on a forward-looking basis. The external debt service-to-exports and -to-revenue ratios breach their indicative thresholds by large margins in the near term and signal major liquidity pressures. However, once these pressures are addressed by the prospective debt relief and the authorities' fiscal consolidation and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform program, the PV of total public debt would be brought below its threshold over the medium term. On the upside, debt relief discussions with external creditors are progressing and could unlock additional budget support. Downside risks mainly relate to the political environment and fiscal discipline, the unravelling of which could destabilize the economy and worsen the outlook for public debt.


Book
Burkina Faso : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 2018 Update.
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2018 Article IV consultation and first review of the three-year program supported by the IMF's Extended Credit Facility (ECF). It is based on end-2017 debt data and the latest methodology underpinning the LIC DSF, which triggered an improvement in debt indicator thresholds. External risk of debt distress in Burkina Faso remains moderate. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative thresholds under the baseline scenario. In line with the Staff Report, the baseline scenario is anchored on an overall fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP from 2019. In a customized scenario meant to illustrate fiscal and external risks, two thresholds are breached. The overall public debt does not breach the relevant benchmark in the baseline and Burkina Faso is assessed as having a moderate risk of public debt distress, as the external debt risk rating is moderate. Burkina Faso would need to: (i) maintain a sound macro-fiscal framework; (ii) implement structural reforms to diversify its export base; and (iii) limit non-concessional borrowing to prevent a deterioration of its debt sustainability outlook.


Book
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis.
Authors: ---
Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This debt sustainability analysis (DSA) concludes that Afghanistan's external and overall risk of debt distress continues to be assessed as high. Afghanistan's debt sustainability hinges on continued donor grants inflows (currently around 40 percent of GDP) against substantial fiscal and external deficits and downside risks to the economic outlook. A gradual replacement of grants by debt financing leads to high risk of debt distress in the long run and is captured by mechanical risk ratings based on an extended 20-year period rather than the standard 10-year period. Significant downside risks include the fragile security situation, political uncertainty, domestic revenue shortfalls, weather related risks, and regional economic instability. The authorities should continue their efforts to mobilize revenue and implement reforms, while donors should continue to provide financing in the form of grants. Debt management capacity, including the monitoring of contingent liabilities emanating from state-owned entities and public-private partnerships (PPPs), should be strengthened.

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