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This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8 Degree C), 2 Degree C and 4 Degree C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations. Data show that dramatic climate changes, heat, and weather extremes are already impacting people, damaging crops and coastlines, and putting food, water, and energy security at risk. Across the three regions studied in this report, record-breaking temperatures are occurring more frequently, rainfall has increased in intensity in some places, while drought-prone regions are getting dryer. The poor and underprivileged, as well as the elderly and children, are found to be hit the hardest. There is growing evidence that even with very ambitious mitigation action, warming close to 1.5 Degree C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century is already locked into the Earth's atmospheric system, and climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable. If the planet continues warming to 4 Degree C, climatic conditions, heat, and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal-a world of increased risks and instability. The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise. The task of promoting human development, ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2 Degree C world, but in a 4 Degree C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world. The benefits of strong, early action on climate change -- action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies -- far outweigh the costs. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2 Degree C. But the time to act is now.
4 degree world --- Adaptation --- Climate change --- Climate change and social vulnerability --- Climate change impacts --- Climate projections --- Environmental services --- Food security --- Global warming --- Mitigation --- Science based evidence
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Hydroclimatic extremes, such as floods and droughts, affect aspects of our lives and the environment including energy, hydropower, agriculture, transportation, urban life, and human health and safety. Climate studies indicate that the risk of increased flooding and/or more severe droughts will be higher in the future than today, causing increased fatalities, environmental degradation, and economic losses. Using a suite of innovative approaches this book quantifies the changes in projected hydroclimatic extremes and illustrates their impacts in several locations in North America, Asia, and Europe.
downscaling --- floods --- flood risk --- Boise River Watershed --- flooding frequency --- CMIP5 --- flood frequency analysis --- streamflow regulation rules --- droughts --- downscaled projections --- flood inundation maps --- RCM uncertainty --- climate change and variability --- RCP4.5 --- climate change --- RCP8.5 --- frequency estimates --- water resource systems --- climate change impacts --- extreme rainfall --- catchment based macroscale floodplain model --- consecutive dry days --- Canada --- water quality --- Copula function --- return period --- drought-flood abrupt alternation --- ensembles --- continuous simulations --- extreme hydrologic events --- hydrological risk assessment --- uncertainty --- climate projections --- Southeast U.S. --- extreme precipitation --- EURO-CORDEX projections --- temporal and spatial evolution --- HSPF --- changing of exceedance --- Northeastern US --- climate --- flash flood --- spatial analog --- future projections --- flood hazard --- future precipitation at urban scale
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