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COVID-19 can be described as a heat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable in society. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable in the rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world are not more immune. Yet, despite the extensive spread of the virus, the mortality toll remains highly concentrated in high-income countries. Developing countries represent 85 percent of the global population, but only 21 percent of the pandemic's death toll. This unusual inequality creates the impression that the world is subjected to two different pandemics in terms of their impact. This paper documents the observed inequality with a new indicator that expresses severity relative to pre-pandemic patterns. It argues that the excessive skew towards rich countries is inconsistent with demography. Simulations based on reasonable ranges for infectivity and fatality suggest that the developing country share in global fatalities could rise by a factor of three (from 21 to 69 percent). Environmental and host-specific factors will influence these results but are unlikely to overturn them. While data quality has a role in explaining "excess inequality", the more compelling explanation is that the pandemic has yet to run its course through the age distributions of the world.
Case Fatality Rate --- Cause of Death --- Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseas --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Demographics --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Health --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Heart Disease --- Mortality --- Pandemic --- Public Health Promotion --- Risk of Death
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Children --- Infants --- Enfants --- Nourrissons --- Mortality --- Mortalité --- Kindersterfte en perinatale sterfte --- Infant. --- Child. --- Mortality. --- Age Specific Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rate --- Case Fatality Rate --- Decline, Mortality --- Determinants, Mortality --- Differential Mortality --- Excess Mortality --- Mortality Decline --- Mortality Determinants --- Mortality Rate --- Mortality, Differential --- Mortality, Excess --- Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rates --- Case Fatality Rates --- Death Rate, Age-Specific --- Death Rates --- Death Rates, Age-Specific --- Declines, Mortality --- Determinant, Mortality --- Differential Mortalities --- Excess Mortalities --- Mortalities --- Mortalities, Differential --- Mortalities, Excess --- Mortality Declines --- Mortality Determinant --- Mortality Rates --- Rate, Age-Specific Death --- Rate, Case Fatality --- Rate, Death --- Rate, Mortality --- Rates, Age-Specific Death --- Rates, Case Fatality --- Rates, Death --- Rates, Mortality --- Disease --- Minors --- Mortalité infantile et périnatale --- mortality --- Mortalité --- Child --- Infant --- Childhood --- Kids (Children) --- Pedology (Child study) --- Youngsters --- Age groups --- Families --- Life cycle, Human --- Mortality&delete& --- Statistics --- CFR Case Fatality Rate --- Crude Death Rate --- Crude Mortality Rate --- Crude Death Rates --- Crude Mortality Rates --- Death Rate, Crude --- Mortality Rate, Crude --- Rate, Crude Death --- Rate, Crude Mortality
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Mortality --- Medical geography --- Diseases --- Europe --- Mortality. --- 614 --- Age Specific Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rate --- Case Fatality Rate --- Decline, Mortality --- Determinants, Mortality --- Differential Mortality --- Excess Mortality --- Mortality Decline --- Mortality Determinants --- Mortality Rate --- Mortality, Differential --- Mortality, Excess --- Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rates --- Case Fatality Rates --- Death Rate, Age-Specific --- Death Rates --- Death Rates, Age-Specific --- Declines, Mortality --- Determinant, Mortality --- Differential Mortalities --- Excess Mortalities --- Mortalities --- Mortalities, Differential --- Mortalities, Excess --- Mortality Declines --- Mortality Determinant --- Mortality Rates --- Rate, Age-Specific Death --- Rate, Case Fatality --- Rate, Death --- Rate, Mortality --- Rates, Age-Specific Death --- Rates, Case Fatality --- Rates, Death --- Rates, Mortality --- Disease --- Openbare gezondheidszorg--(zie ook {351.84}) --- mortality --- Europe. --- Northern Europe --- Southern Europe --- Western Europe --- CFR Case Fatality Rate --- Crude Death Rate --- Crude Mortality Rate --- Crude Death Rates --- Crude Mortality Rates --- Death Rate, Crude --- Mortality Rate, Crude --- Rate, Crude Death --- Rate, Crude Mortality
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Mortality. --- 10.03.d --- Age Specific Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rate --- Case Fatality Rate --- Decline, Mortality --- Determinants, Mortality --- Differential Mortality --- Excess Mortality --- Mortality Decline --- Mortality Determinants --- Mortality Rate --- Mortality, Differential --- Mortality, Excess --- Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rates --- Case Fatality Rates --- Death Rate, Age-Specific --- Death Rates --- Death Rates, Age-Specific --- Declines, Mortality --- Determinant, Mortality --- Differential Mortalities --- Excess Mortalities --- Mortalities --- Mortalities, Differential --- Mortalities, Excess --- Mortality Declines --- Mortality Determinant --- Mortality Rates --- Rate, Age-Specific Death --- Rate, Case Fatality --- Rate, Death --- Rate, Mortality --- Rates, Age-Specific Death --- Rates, Case Fatality --- Rates, Death --- Rates, Mortality --- Disease --- Actuariaat ; (Sterfte)tafels --- mortality --- MORTALITY --- statistics --- statistics. --- Mortality --- Statistics. --- CFR Case Fatality Rate --- Crude Death Rate --- Crude Mortality Rate --- Crude Death Rates --- Crude Mortality Rates --- Death Rate, Crude --- Mortality Rate, Crude --- Rate, Crude Death --- Rate, Crude Mortality
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Sociology of health --- Demography --- United States --- Diseases --- Mortality --- Statistics --- Mortality. --- Morbidity. --- -Mortality --- -Mortality, Law of --- Death --- Death (Biology) --- Human beings --- Illness --- Illnesses --- Morbidity --- Sickness --- Sicknesses --- Medicine --- Epidemiology --- Health --- Pathology --- Sick --- Morbidities --- Age Specific Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rate --- Case Fatality Rate --- Decline, Mortality --- Determinants, Mortality --- Differential Mortality --- Excess Mortality --- Mortality Decline --- Mortality Determinants --- Mortality Rate --- Mortality, Differential --- Mortality, Excess --- Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rates --- Case Fatality Rates --- Death Rate, Age-Specific --- Death Rates --- Death Rates, Age-Specific --- Declines, Mortality --- Determinant, Mortality --- Differential Mortalities --- Excess Mortalities --- Mortalities --- Mortalities, Differential --- Mortalities, Excess --- Mortality Declines --- Mortality Determinant --- Mortality Rates --- Rate, Age-Specific Death --- Rate, Case Fatality --- Rate, Death --- Rate, Mortality --- Rates, Age-Specific Death --- Rates, Case Fatality --- Rates, Death --- Rates, Mortality --- Disease --- mortality --- United States. --- Statistics, Medical. --- Statistics, Vital. --- -Statistics --- CFR Case Fatality Rate --- Crude Death Rate --- Crude Mortality Rate --- Crude Death Rates --- Crude Mortality Rates --- Death Rate, Crude --- Mortality Rate, Crude --- Rate, Crude Death --- Rate, Crude Mortality --- Diseases - United States - Statistics --- Mortality - United States --- United States - Statistics, Medical --- United States - Statistics, Vital --- United States of America
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Epidemiology --- Demography --- European Union --- Mortality --- Sentinel health events --- Cause of Death --- Outcome and Process Assessment (Health Care) --- Charts, diagrams, etc --- Maps --- Europe --- statistics --- maps --- European Economic Community countries --- Statistics, Medical --- Cause of Death. --- Mortality. --- Agricultural prices --- -Mortality --- -Sentinel health events --- -ABB9205 --- 10.03.d --- Events, Sentinel health --- Health events, Sentinel --- Sentinel events (Public health) --- Health status indicators --- Mortality, Law of --- Death --- Death (Biology) --- Agriculture --- Farm prices --- Prices --- Farm income --- Age Specific Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rate --- Case Fatality Rate --- Decline, Mortality --- Determinants, Mortality --- Differential Mortality --- Excess Mortality --- Mortality Decline --- Mortality Determinants --- Mortality Rate --- Mortality, Differential --- Mortality, Excess --- Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rates --- Case Fatality Rates --- Death Rate, Age-Specific --- Death Rates --- Death Rates, Age-Specific --- Declines, Mortality --- Determinant, Mortality --- Differential Mortalities --- Excess Mortalities --- Mortalities --- Mortalities, Differential --- Mortalities, Excess --- Mortality Declines --- Mortality Determinant --- Mortality Rates --- Rate, Age-Specific Death --- Rate, Case Fatality --- Rate, Death --- Rate, Mortality --- Rates, Age-Specific Death --- Rates, Case Fatality --- Rates, Death --- Rates, Mortality --- Disease --- Causes of Death --- Death Cause --- Death Causes --- statistics & numerical data. --- Statistics --- Actuariaat ; (Sterfte)tafels --- Economic aspects --- mortality --- Europe. --- Northern Europe --- Southern Europe --- Western Europe --- statistics. --- maps. --- Outcome and Process Assessment, Health Care --- CFR Case Fatality Rate --- Crude Death Rate --- Crude Mortality Rate --- Crude Death Rates --- Crude Mortality Rates --- Death Rate, Crude --- Mortality Rate, Crude --- Rate, Crude Death --- Rate, Crude Mortality --- Donabedian Model --- Donabedian Triad --- Outcome and Process Assessment --- Structure Process Outcome Triad --- Model, Donabedian --- Triad, Donabedian --- statistics & numerical data --- -statistics & numerical data
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Cross-Cultural Comparison. --- Health Services Research --- Mortality. --- Cause of Death. --- Health Policy. --- National Health Policy --- Health Policies --- Health Policies, National --- Health Policy, National --- National Health Policies --- Policies, Health --- Policies, National Health --- Policy, Health --- Policy, National Health --- Policy Making --- Causes of Death --- Death Cause --- Death Causes --- Death --- Age Specific Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rate --- Case Fatality Rate --- Decline, Mortality --- Determinants, Mortality --- Differential Mortality --- Excess Mortality --- Mortality Decline --- Mortality Determinants --- Mortality Rate --- Mortality, Differential --- Mortality, Excess --- Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rates --- Case Fatality Rates --- Death Rate, Age-Specific --- Death Rates --- Death Rates, Age-Specific --- Declines, Mortality --- Determinant, Mortality --- Differential Mortalities --- Excess Mortalities --- Mortalities --- Mortalities, Differential --- Mortalities, Excess --- Mortality Declines --- Mortality Determinant --- Mortality Rates --- Rate, Age-Specific Death --- Rate, Case Fatality --- Rate, Death --- Rate, Mortality --- Rates, Age-Specific Death --- Rates, Case Fatality --- Rates, Death --- Rates, Mortality --- Disease --- economics. --- mortality --- Theses --- Mortality --- Health policy --- Transcultural Studies --- Comparison, Cross-Cultural --- Comparisons, Cross-Cultural --- Cross Cultural Comparison --- Cross-Cultural Comparisons --- Studies, Transcultural --- Study, Transcultural --- Transcultural Study --- Cultural Characteristics --- Culture --- Healthcare Policy --- Healthcare Policies --- Policy, Healthcare --- CFR Case Fatality Rate --- Crude Death Rate --- Crude Mortality Rate --- Crude Death Rates --- Crude Mortality Rates --- Death Rate, Crude --- Mortality Rate, Crude --- Rate, Crude Death --- Rate, Crude Mortality --- Cross-Cultural Comparison --- Cause of Death --- Health Policy --- economics --- Health Care Policies --- Care Policies, Health --- Health Care Policy --- Policies, Health Care --- Policies, Healthcare --- Policy, Health Care
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Aging --- HLA Antigens --- Cause of Death. --- Aged. --- Health Status. --- Mortality. --- Longevity --- Aged --- -Aged --- Aging people --- Elderly people --- Old people --- Older adults --- Older persons --- Senior citizens --- Seniors (Older people) --- Age groups --- Persons --- Gerontocracy --- Gerontology --- Old age --- Age Specific Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rate --- Case Fatality Rate --- Decline, Mortality --- Determinants, Mortality --- Differential Mortality --- Excess Mortality --- Mortality Decline --- Mortality Determinants --- Mortality Rate --- Mortality, Differential --- Mortality, Excess --- Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rates --- Case Fatality Rates --- Death Rate, Age-Specific --- Death Rates --- Death Rates, Age-Specific --- Declines, Mortality --- Determinant, Mortality --- Differential Mortalities --- Excess Mortalities --- Mortalities --- Mortalities, Differential --- Mortalities, Excess --- Mortality Declines --- Mortality Determinant --- Mortality Rates --- Rate, Age-Specific Death --- Rate, Case Fatality --- Rate, Death --- Rate, Mortality --- Rates, Age-Specific Death --- Rates, Case Fatality --- Rates, Death --- Rates, Mortality --- Disease --- Level of Health --- Health Level --- Health Levels --- Status, Health --- Elderly --- Geriatrics --- Causes of Death --- Death Cause --- Death Causes --- Death --- immunology. --- genetics. --- Mortality --- mortality --- Theses --- -immunology. --- -Age Specific Death Rate --- Older people --- Cause of Death --- Health Status --- immunology --- genetics --- CFR Case Fatality Rate --- Crude Death Rate --- Crude Mortality Rate --- Crude Death Rates --- Crude Mortality Rates --- Death Rate, Crude --- Mortality Rate, Crude --- Rate, Crude Death --- Rate, Crude Mortality --- General Health --- General Health Level --- General Health Status --- Overall Health --- Overall Health Status --- General Health Levels --- Health Level, General --- Health Status, General --- Health Status, Overall --- Health, General --- Health, Overall --- Level, General Health --- Levels, General Health --- Status, General Health --- Status, Overall Health
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Life expectancy --- Espérance de vie --- History --- Histoire --- Life Expectancy. --- Mortality. --- 314 <09> <43> --- 314.4 <09> --- Age Specific Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rate --- Case Fatality Rate --- Decline, Mortality --- Determinants, Mortality --- Differential Mortality --- Excess Mortality --- Mortality Decline --- Mortality Determinants --- Mortality Rate --- Mortality, Differential --- Mortality, Excess --- Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rates --- Case Fatality Rates --- Death Rate, Age-Specific --- Death Rates --- Death Rates, Age-Specific --- Declines, Mortality --- Determinant, Mortality --- Differential Mortalities --- Excess Mortalities --- Mortalities --- Mortalities, Differential --- Mortalities, Excess --- Mortality Declines --- Mortality Determinant --- Mortality Rates --- Rate, Age-Specific Death --- Rate, Case Fatality --- Rate, Death --- Rate, Mortality --- Rates, Age-Specific Death --- Rates, Case Fatality --- Rates, Death --- Rates, Mortality --- Disease --- Life Extension --- Years of Potential Life Lost --- Expectancies, Life --- Expectancy, Life --- Life Expectancies --- Longevity --- Mortality, Premature --- Bevolkingsgeschiedenis--Duitsland voor 1945 en na 1989 --- Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van ... --- mortality --- Germany. --- 314.4 <09> Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van ... --- 314 <09> <43> Bevolkingsgeschiedenis--Duitsland voor 1945 en na 1989 --- Espérance de vie --- CFR Case Fatality Rate --- Crude Death Rate --- Crude Mortality Rate --- Crude Death Rates --- Crude Mortality Rates --- Death Rate, Crude --- Mortality Rate, Crude --- Rate, Crude Death --- Rate, Crude Mortality --- Life Expectancy --- Mortality --- Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van .. --- Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van . --- Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van --- ALLEMAGNE --- ESPERANCE DE VIE --- MORTALITE --- CONDITIONS SOCIALES --- 17E-19E SIECLES
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Mortality --- Mortalité --- History --- Histoire --- History. --- History of Medicine. --- Mortality. --- 314.4 <09> --- -Mortality, Law of --- Death --- Demography --- Death (Biology) --- Age Specific Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rate --- Case Fatality Rate --- Decline, Mortality --- Determinants, Mortality --- Differential Mortality --- Excess Mortality --- Mortality Decline --- Mortality Determinants --- Mortality Rate --- Mortality, Differential --- Mortality, Excess --- Death Rate --- Age-Specific Death Rates --- Case Fatality Rates --- Death Rate, Age-Specific --- Death Rates --- Death Rates, Age-Specific --- Declines, Mortality --- Determinant, Mortality --- Differential Mortalities --- Excess Mortalities --- Mortalities --- Mortalities, Differential --- Mortalities, Excess --- Mortality Declines --- Mortality Determinant --- Mortality Rates --- Rate, Age-Specific Death --- Rate, Case Fatality --- Rate, Death --- Rate, Mortality --- Rates, Age-Specific Death --- Rates, Case Fatality --- Rates, Death --- Rates, Mortality --- Disease --- Medicine, History --- Medicine --- Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van ... --- mortality --- history --- Europe. --- Northern Europe --- Southern Europe --- Western Europe --- -Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van ... --- 314.4 <09> Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van ... --- -Age Specific Death Rate --- Mortality, Law of --- Mortalité --- History of Medicine --- Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van .. --- History Medicines --- Medicine Histories --- Medicines, History --- CFR Case Fatality Rate --- Crude Death Rate --- Crude Mortality Rate --- Crude Death Rates --- Crude Mortality Rates --- Death Rate, Crude --- Mortality Rate, Crude --- Rate, Crude Death --- Rate, Crude Mortality --- Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van . --- Mortality - Europe - History. --- Sterfte. Mortaliteit. Sterftecijfers. Ziektecijfers. Invaliditeitscijfers--(demografie)--Geschiedenis van
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