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A Behavioral Theory of Elections
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1283163748 9786613163745 1400836808 069113507X 0691135061 9780691135069 9780691135076 9781400836802 Year: 2011 Publisher: Princeton, NJ

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Abstract

Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies--most famously, about turnout. The rise of behavioral economics has posed new challenges to the premise of rationality. This groundbreaking book provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors--politicians as well as voters--are only boundedly rational. The theory posits learning via trial and error: actions that surpass an actor's aspiration level are more likely to be used in the future, while those that fall short are less likely to be tried later. Based on this idea of adaptation, the authors construct formal models of party competition, turnout, and voters' choices of candidates. These models predict substantial turnout levels, voters sorting into parties, and winning parties adopting centrist platforms. In multiparty elections, voters are able to coordinate vote choices on majority-preferred candidates, while all candidates garner significant vote shares. Overall, the behavioral theory and its models produce macroimplications consistent with the data on elections, and they use plausible microassumptions about the cognitive capacities of politicians and voters. A computational model accompanies the book and can be used as a tool for further research.

Keywords

Elections. --- Voting --- Behaviorism (Political science) --- Behavioralism (Political science) --- Behaviouralism (Political science) --- Behaviourism (Political science) --- Political psychology --- Polls --- Elections --- Politics, Practical --- Social choice --- Suffrage --- Electoral politics --- Franchise --- Political science --- Plebiscite --- Political campaigns --- Representative government and representation --- Psychological aspects. --- Political systems --- Social psychology --- Condorcet winner. --- Downsian party competition. --- Duverger's Law. --- Markov chain. --- Pareto dominance. --- adaptation. --- aspiration-based adaptation. --- aspiration-based adaptive rule. --- aspiration-based adjustment. --- aspirations. --- bandwagon effect. --- behavior. --- behavioral theory. --- bounded rationality. --- candidates. --- computational model. --- decision making. --- election voting. --- elections. --- equilibrium behavior. --- faction size. --- framing. --- game-theoretic model. --- hedonics. --- heuristics. --- incumbent. --- majority faction. --- multiparty elections. --- parties. --- party affiliation. --- party competition. --- payoffs. --- platforms. --- political parties. --- politicians. --- population size. --- propensity. --- rational choice theory. --- rational choice. --- rationality. --- retrospective voting. --- satisficing. --- search behavior. --- stochastic process. --- turnout. --- two-party elections. --- voter choice. --- voter coordination. --- voter participation. --- voter turnout. --- voters. --- Balloting

Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice
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ISBN: 0691022836 Year: 1988 Publisher: Princeton, NJ Princeton Univ. Pr.

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This innovative study blends sophisticated statistical analyses, campaign anecdotes, and penetrating political insight to produce a fascinating exploration of one of America's most controversial political institutions--the process by which our major parties nominate candidates for the presidency. Larry Bartels focuses on the nature and impact of "momentum" in the contemporary nominating system. He describes the complex interconnections among primary election results, expectations, and subsequent primary results that have made it possible for candidates like Jimmy Carter, George Bush, and Gary Hart to emerge from relative obscurity into political prominence in recent nominating campaigns. In the course of his analysis, he addresses questions central to any understanding--or evaluation--of the modern nominating process. How do fundamental political predispositions influence the behavior of primary voters? How quickly does the public learn about new candidates? Under what circumstances will primary success itself generate subsequent primary success? And what are the psychological processes underlying this dynamic tendency? Professor Bartels examines the likely consequences of some proposed alternatives to the current nominating process, including a regional primary system and a one-day national primary. Thus the work will be of interest to political activists, would-be reformers, and interested observers of the American political scene, as well as to students of public opinion, voting behavior, the news media, campaigns, and electoral institutions.

Keywords

Presidents --- United States --- Nomination --- Primaries --- Bush, George, 1924-2018 --- Carter, Jimmy --- Ford, Gerald Rudolph --- Jackson, Jesse Louis --- Mondale, Walter Frederick --- Reagan, Ronald --- Wallace, George Corley --- Kandidatenaufstellung --- Präsidentenwahl --- Vorwahl --- USA --- Afghanistan. --- Bush, George. --- Gallup Poll. --- Glenn, John. --- Houston Chronicle. --- Iran hostage crisis. --- Janaskie, Paul. --- Johnston, Richard. --- Kemp, Jack. --- Kentucky Derby. --- Lichtenstein, Sarah. --- Ohio primary. --- Opus (penguin). --- Smith, Carolyn. --- Solid South. --- Super Tuesday. --- Time magazine. --- Vietnam war. --- Watergate. --- ambiguity. --- approval voting. --- bandwagon. --- brokered convention. --- campaign effects. --- congressional caucuses. --- contagion. --- conventions. --- deathwatch coverage. --- defense spending. --- delegates. --- endogeneity of preferences. --- expectations. --- feeling thermometer. --- foreign policy. --- government services. --- horse race. --- information. --- labor unions. --- liberalism scores. --- media use. --- momentum. --- name recognition. --- national primary. --- negative momentum. --- nuclear power. --- paradox of voting. --- political activation. --- projection. --- reform. --- regional primaries. --- threshold model. --- unemployment. --- President --- Präsident --- President of the United States of America --- Präsident der Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika --- President of the United States --- American Presidents --- ABŞ --- ABSh --- Ameerika Ühendriigid --- America (Republic) --- Amerika Birlăshmish Shtatlary --- Amerika Birlăşmi Ştatları --- Amerika Birlăşmiş Ştatları --- Amerika ka Kelenyalen Jamanaw --- Amerika Qūrama Shtattary --- Amerika Qŭshma Shtatlari --- Amerika Qushma Shtattary --- Amerika (Republic) --- Amerikai Egyesült Államok --- Amerikanʹ Veĭtʹsėndi︠a︡vks Shtattnė --- Amerikări Pĕrleshu̇llĕ Shtatsem --- Amerikas Forenede Stater --- Amerikayi Miatsʻyal Nahangner --- Ameriketako Estatu Batuak --- Amirika Carékat --- AQSh --- Ar. ha-B. --- Arhab --- Artsot ha-Berit --- Artzois Ha'bris --- Bí-kok --- Ē.P.A. --- EE.UU. --- Egyesült Államok --- ĒPA --- Estados Unidos --- Estados Unidos da América do Norte --- Estados Unidos de América --- Estaos Xuníos --- Estaos Xuníos d'América --- Estatos Unitos --- Estatos Unitos d'America --- Estats Units d'Amèrica --- Ètats-Unis d'Amèrica --- États-Unis d'Amérique --- Fareyniḳṭe Shṭaṭn --- Feriene Steaten --- Feriene Steaten fan Amearika --- Forente stater --- FS --- Hēnomenai Politeiai Amerikēs --- Hēnōmenes Politeies tēs Amerikēs --- Hiwsisayin Amerikayi Miatsʻeal Tērutʻiwnkʻ --- Istadus Unidus --- Jungtinės Amerikos valstybės --- Mei guo --- Mei-kuo --- Meiguo --- Mî-koet --- Miatsʻyal Nahangner --- Miguk --- Na Stàitean Aonaichte --- NSA --- S.U.A. --- SAD --- Saharat ʻAmērikā --- SASht --- Severo-Amerikanskie Shtaty --- Severo-Amerikanskie Soedinennye Shtaty --- Si︠e︡vero-Amerikanskīe Soedinennye Shtaty --- Sjedinjene Američke Države --- Soedinennye Shtaty Ameriki --- Soedinennye Shtaty Severnoĭ Ameriki --- Soedinennye Shtaty Si︠e︡vernoĭ Ameriki --- Spojené obce severoamerické --- Spojené staty americké --- SShA --- Stadoù-Unanet Amerika --- Stáit Aontaithe Mheiriceá --- Stany Zjednoczone --- Stati Uniti --- Stati Uniti d'America --- Stâts Unîts --- Stâts Unîts di Americhe --- Steatyn Unnaneysit --- Steatyn Unnaneysit America --- SUA (Stati Uniti d'America) --- Sŭedineni amerikanski shtati --- Sŭedinenite shtati --- Tetã peteĩ reko Amérikagua --- U.S. --- U.S.A. --- United States of America --- Unol Daleithiau --- Unol Daleithiau America --- Unuiĝintaj Ŝtatoj de Ameriko --- US --- Usono --- Vaeinigte Staatn --- Vaeinigte Staatn vo Amerika --- Vereinigte Staaten --- Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika --- Verenigde State van Amerika --- Verenigde Staten --- VS --- VSA --- Wááshindoon Bikéyah Ałhidadiidzooígíí --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah al-Amirīkīyah --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah al-Amrīkīyah --- Yhdysvallat --- Yunaeted Stet --- Yunaeted Stet blong Amerika --- ZDA --- Združene države Amerike --- Zʹi︠e︡dnani Derz︠h︡avy Ameryky --- Zjadnośone staty Ameriki --- Zluchanyi︠a︡ Shtaty Ameryki --- Zlucheni Derz︠h︡avy --- ZSA --- Η.Π.Α. --- Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες της Αμερικής --- Америка (Republic) --- Американь Вейтьсэндявкс Штаттнэ --- Америкӑри Пӗрлешӳллӗ Штатсем --- САЩ --- Съединените щати --- Злучаныя Штаты Амерыкі --- ولايات المتحدة --- ولايات المتّحدة الأمريكيّة --- ولايات المتحدة الامريكية --- 미국 --- États-Unis --- É.-U. --- ÉU --- Präsident --- Präsident der Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika --- Primary --- Vorwahlen --- Wahl --- Präsidentschaftswahl --- Staatspräsidentenwahl --- Nominierung --- Nordamerika --- Amerika --- Etats Unis --- Etats-Unis --- Estados Unidos de America --- EEUU --- Vereinigte Staaten von Nordamerika --- Soedinennye Štaty Ameriki --- SŠA --- Stany Zjednoczone Ameryki Północnej --- Hēnōmenai Politeiai tēs Boreiu Amerikēs --- Hēnōmenes Politeies tēs Amerikēs --- HēPA --- Ēnōmenes Politeies tēs Amerikēs --- ĒPA --- Etats-Unis d'Amérique --- Amerikaner --- Konföderierte Staaten von Amerika

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