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A water-focused computable general equilibrium and microsimulation models were applied to analyze the economywide and distributional impacts of the multipurpose Mwache dam investment in the coast region of Kenya. The results show that the dam is likely to contribute to the regional economic growth with highest results under the combined allocation scenario of 80 percent for domestic users and nonagricultural economic sectors and 20 percent for irrigation purposes. In the coast region, water allocation to agriculture is key for inclusive growth and poverty reduction. With irrigation water, increased production of maize, pulses, oil crops, fruits, and vegetables in the hitherto drought-prone region fuels agricultural productivity growth that benefits the regional and national economies. Thus, allocation of water to irrigation can have considerable effects on food availability and food and nutritional security in the region, which suffers from persistent food deficits. Provision of domestic water supply is necessary but not sufficient for overcoming extreme poverty. Increased water availability benefits all industries operating in the coast region, in particular, those relatively more intensive in water.

Dams --- Dams and Reservoirs --- Hydrology --- Income Distribution --- Poverty --- Trade --- Water Economics --- Water Resource Management --- Water Resources --- Water Resources Assessment

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Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea level rise and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce the vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation and erosion. However, climate change poses a large threat to mangroves. This paper quantifies the coastal protection provided by mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a one-meter sea level rise and 10 percent intensification of storms. The benefits of the coastal protection provided by mangroves are measured in terms of population and gross omestic product at a reduced risk from inundation; the loss of benefits under climate change is measured as the increased population and gross domestic product at risk. The findings demonstrate that although sea level rise and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas and the amounts of built resources at risk, the greatest impact is the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people and roughly USD 400 million in gross domestic product of are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, the vulnerable population and gross domestic product at risk would increase by 103 and 233 percent, respectively. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar.

Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases. --- Climate Change. --- Coastal and Marine Environment. --- Coastal Protection. --- Environment. --- Mangroves. --- Storm Surge. --- Water Resources Assessment. --- Water Resources. --- Wetlands. --- Wildlife Resources.

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In this paper we consider some of the economic implications of climate change scenarios as described in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). By comparing potential water demand with estimates of (sustainable) water availability in different regions, we identify regions that are likely to be constrained in their future economic growth potential by the scarcity of water resources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of water scarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, by assigning more water to sectors in which it has a higher value, shifting production to less water intensive sectors, and importing more water intensive goods, constrained regions can effectively neutralize these water related climate risks and adapt to a changing water environment. However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply some radical changes in water management policies.

Climate Change --- Climate Change Impacts --- Computable General Equilibrium --- Environment --- Virtual Water --- Water --- Water Economics --- Water Policy & Governance --- Water Resources --- Water Resources Assessment --- Water Resources Management

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Previous Ricardian analyses of agriculture have either omitted irrigation or treated irrigation as though it is exogenous. In practice, it is a choice by farmers that is sensitive to climate. This paper develops a choice model of irrigation in the context of a Ricardian model of cropland. The authors examine how climate affects the decision to use irrigation and then how climate affects the net revenues of dryland and irrigated land. This Ricardian "selection" model, using a modified Heckman model, is then estimated across 8,400 farmers in Africa. The analysis explicitly models irrigation but controls for the endogeneity of irrigation. The authors find that the choice of irrigation is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Simulations of the welfare impacts of several climate scenarios demonstrate that a model which assumes irrigation is exogenous provides a biased estimate of the welfare effects of climate change. If dryland and irrigation are to be estimated separately in the Ricardian model, irrigation must be modeled endogenously. The results also indicate that African agriculture is sensitive to climate change. Many farmers in Africa will experience net revenue losses from warming. Irrigated farms, on the other hand, are more resilient to temperature change and, on the margin, are likely to realize slight gains in productivity. But any reduction in precipitation will be especially deleterious to dryland farmers, generally the poorest segment of the agriculture community. The results indicate that irrigation is an effective adaptation against loss of rainfall and higher temperatures provided there is sufficient water available. This will be an effective remedy in select regions of Africa with water. However, for many regions there is no available surface water, so that warming scenarios with reduced rainfall are particularly deleterious.

Climate --- Climate Change --- Drought Management --- Elasticity --- Environment --- Forestry --- Global Environment --- Irrigation --- Precipitation --- Rainfall --- Soil --- Temperature --- Temperature change --- Water Resources --- Water Resources Assessment --- Water Supply and Sanitation --- Water Supply and Systems

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It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.

Agriculture --- Climate Change --- Coastal Areas --- Energy --- Environment --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Hydro Power --- Rice Production --- Science and Technology Development --- Science of Climate Change --- Soil Salinity --- Water Conservation --- Water Resources --- Water Resources Assessment