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The author looks here at the threats that rulers face from their own armed forces. Can they make their regimes impervious to coups ? This book shows that how leaders organize their coercive institutions has a profound effect on the survival of their regimes. When rulers use presidential guards, militarized police, and militia to counterbalance the regular military, efforts to oust them from power via coups d'etat are less likely to succeed. Even as counterbalancing helps to prevent successful interventions, however, the resentment that it generates within the regular military can provoke new coup attempts. And because counterbalancing changes how soldiers and police perceive the costs and benefits of a successful overthrow, it can create incentives for protracted fighting that results in the escalation of a coup into full-blown civil war. Drawing on an original dataset of state security forces in 110 countries over a span of fifty years, as well as case studies of coup attempts in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, the author sheds light on how counterbalancing affects regime survival. Understanding the dynamics of counterbalancing, she shows, can help analysts predict when coups will occur, whether they will succeed, and how violent they are likely to be. The arguments and evidence in this book suggest that while counterbalancing may prevent successful coups, it is a risky strategy to pursue - and one that may weaken regimes in the long term.
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"The idea that war is going out of style has become the conventional wisdom in recent years. But in Only the Dead, award-winning author Bear Braumoeller demonstrates that it shouldn't have. With a rare combination of historical expertise, statistical acumen, and accessible prose, Braumoeller shows that the evidence simply doesn't support the decline-of-war thesis propounded by scholars like Steven Pinker. He argues that the key to understanding trends in warfare lies, not in the spread of humanitarian values, but rather in the formation of international orders-sets of expectations about behavior that allow countries to work in concert, as they did in the Concert of Europe and have done in the postwar Western liberal order. With a nod toward the American sociologist Charles Tilly, who argued that "war made the state and the state made war," Braumoeller argues that the same is true of international orders: while they reduce conflict within their borders, they can also clash violently with one another, as the Western and communist orders did throughout the Cold War. Both highly readable and rigorous, Only the Dead offers a realistic assessment of humanity's quest to abolish warfare. While pessimists have been too quick to discount the successes of our attempts to reduce international conflict, optimists are prone to put too much faith in human nature. Reality lies somewhere in between: While the aspirations of humankind to govern its behavior with reason and justice have had shocking success in moderating the harsh dictates of realpolitik, the institutions that we have created to prevent war are unlikely to achieve anything like total success-as evidenced by the multitude of conflicts in recent decades. As the old adage advises us, only the dead have seen the end of war."--
WAR--CAUSES --- WAR-- PREVENTION --- War --- International organization --- Causes --- Prevention --- War - Causes --- War - Prevention
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Ce manuel d'introduction aux études stratégiques présente les principaux enjeux de la guerre et de la paix de ce début du XXIe siècle. Avec une description des évolutions du paysage militaire et du système sécuritaire international.
Security, International --- Disarmament --- International Cooperation --- Arms control --- War --- Prevention --- War - Prevention --- Politique de securite --- Strategie --- Theories
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Ce manuel d'introduction aux études stratégiques présente les principaux enjeux de la guerre et de la paix de ce début du XXIe siècle. Avec une description des évolutions du paysage militaire et du système sécuritaire international.
Stratégie --- Sécurité internationale --- Guerre --- Security, International --- Disarmament --- International Cooperation --- Arms control --- War --- Prevention --- Stratégie --- Sécurité internationale --- War - Prevention
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These Guidelines provide ways for donor governments to honour their commitment to conflict prevention as an integral part of the quest to reduce poverty. They cover key issues such as: security, development and dealing with small arms; regional co-operation; peace processes, justice and reconciliation; engaging in partnerships for peace; working with business; and grappling with the political economy of war - situations where powerful groups acquire a vested interest in sparking or perpetuating violent conflict. They identify concrete opportunities for donor assistance in support of peace that include: democratisation; inter-community relations; education and cross-cultural training; human rights training; freedom and access to information; the reintegration of uprooted populations; the demobilisation of former combatants; landmine clearing; and the restoration of a capacity for economic management. This full set of guidance on conflict prevention to date from the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) includes the 2001 Supplement and the ground-breaking 1997 Guidelines. This work marks a reaffirmation of the international community’s commitment to work together across government systems to improve their analyses of violent conflicts and establish more coherent policies. “… We are promoting the consideration of conflict prevention in development assistance strategies with a view to achieving quicker and better co-ordinated assistance strategies – including the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HPIC) initiative – and ensuring a smooth transition from relief to post-conflict development. A significant example of such consideration is the April 2001 OECD/DAC Supplement to the 1997 Guidelines on Conflict, Peace and Development Co-operation.” – Excerpt from the Conclusions of the G-8 Foreign Ministers’ meeting, July 2001.
Violence -- Prevention. --- War -- Prevention. --- Violence --- War --- Prevention --- Armed conflict (War) --- Conflict, Armed (War) --- Fighting --- Hostilities --- Wars --- International relations --- Military art and science --- Peace --- Prevention.
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"Les grandes puissances reprennent leur compétition stratégique, Donald Trump répand sa vision isolationniste du monde, le terrorisme s'internationalise, la Chine devient le nouveau géant, la Russie retrouve son agressivité, les guerres se font cybernétiques... Autant de signes que l'ordre international tel que nous le connaissons a vécu. Si un terme devait résumer la période charnière que nous vivons, ce serait celui du recul des relations internationales : recul de la sécurité, de la stabilité et du multilatéralisme. Pour mieux comprendre la reconfiguration en cours du système mondial, cet ouvrage de référence présente, de manière pédagogique et critique, les concepts fondamentaux des études de stratégie et de sécurité, et revient sur les mutations du caractère de la guerre, les possibilités de régulation des conflits et les stratégies de paix au XXIe siècle."
Security, International --- Disarmament --- International Cooperation --- Arms control --- War --- Prevention --- Stratégie. --- Sécurité internationale. --- Guerre. --- Paix. --- Stratégie --- Sécurité internationale --- Guerre --- War - Prevention
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Ce manuel d'introduction aux études stratégiques présente les principaux enjeux de la guerre et de la paix de ce début du XXIe siècle. Avec une description des évolutions du paysage militaire et du système sécuritaire international.
AA / International- internationaal --- 333.109 --- 333.605 --- Veiligheid. Bankovervallen. Bankrisico's. --- Nieuwe financiële instrumenten. --- Strategy --- Stratégie --- Paix. --- Polemology --- Security, International --- Disarmament --- International Cooperation --- Arms control --- War --- Prevention --- Stratégie --- Sécurité internationale --- Guerre --- Veiligheid. Bankovervallen. Bankrisico's --- Nieuwe financiële instrumenten --- War - Prevention --- Sécurité internationale --- Relations internationales --- 21e siècle --- Manuels d'enseignement supérieur --- Philosophie
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Peace --- Social justice --- International relations --- Social justice. --- Societies, etc. --- Research --- Research. --- War Prevention Initiative (Organization) --- Equality --- Justice --- Peace societies --- Peace science --- Coexistence --- Foreign affairs --- Foreign policy --- Foreign relations --- Global governance --- Interdependence of nations --- International affairs --- Peaceful coexistence --- World order --- National security --- Sovereignty --- World politics
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