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Colombian house prices have increased significantly between 2005 and 2016. This paper estimates the extent of misalignments in house prices relative to fundamentals and evaluates the overall risk to the economy from the housing sector. The results suggest a moderate house price misalignment relative to fundamentals which is, however, mitigated by housing finance characteristics.

Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Housing prices --- Credit --- Income --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- National accounts --- Money --- Saving and investment --- Colombia

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The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.

Business & Economics --- Real Estate, Housing & Land Use --- Housing --- Evangelicalism. --- Economics --- Prices --- Religious aspects --- Christianity. --- Christianity and economics --- Evangelical religion --- Protestantism, Evangelical --- Evangelical Revival --- Fundamentalism --- Pietism --- Protestantism --- Financial Risk Management --- Infrastructure --- Insurance --- Real Estate --- Demography --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Cultural Economics: Religion --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Demographic Economics: General --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Financial Crises --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Property & real estate --- Population & demography --- Macroeconomics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Housing prices --- Population and demographics --- Asset bubbles --- National accounts --- Financial crises --- Financial institutions --- Population --- Saving and investment --- United States

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Sharp increase in house prices in Hong Kong SAR in 2009-2010 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. According to our measure of price deviation from fundamentals, which should be taken as an early warning indicator of market exuberance, the current level of house prices in Hong Kong SAR does not seem to be significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. Moreover, unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, deviation from fundamentals has not been persistent in Hong Kong.Going forward, low interest rate and improving growth prospects, as well as a tight supply, particularly in the mass market, means that house price growth will continue to be strong.This is the period in which vulnerability may be accumulating, and tight prudential standards and fiscal measures will be required to tame price inflation.

Housing --- Prices --- Finance --- Affordable housing --- Homes --- Houses --- Housing needs --- Residences --- Slum clearance --- Urban housing --- City planning --- Dwellings --- Human settlements --- Social aspects --- Banks and Banking --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Property & real estate --- Housing prices --- Real interest rates --- Land prices --- Asset prices --- National accounts --- Financial services --- Saving and investment --- Interest rates --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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It has been over a decade since the peak of house prices in the US was attained, and while there has been a concerted regulatory response to the subsequent collapse, the two Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) remain in conservatorship. While this action served to forestall a deeper crisis at the time, over the past several years risks related to the system of mortgage finance can be seen building across several dimensions that need to be addressed. While reforms to the GSEs are an important part of dealing with these concerns, this paper argues that broader changes need to be made across the entire mortgage landscape to stabilize the system, even before the final state of the GSEs is fully determined.

Banks and Banking --- Infrastructure --- Investments: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Securities --- Credit --- Financial institutions --- Money --- National accounts --- Loans --- Financial instruments --- Banks and banking --- Saving and investment --- United States

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This paper investigates how housing prices respond to economic, financial and demographic conditions in emerging markets in Europe. We use quarterly data covering 10 countries over the period 1998–2022 and implement a panel quantile regression approach to obtain a granular analysis of real estate markets. Overall, economic, financial and demographic factors explain the changes in real house prices in emerging Europe, with income growth having the most significant impact. Quantile regression estimations show that income growth matters more for higher housing prices than those at the lower quantiles of the property market. We also find that an increase in short-term or long-term interest rates have a price-dampening impact, indicating that a higher cost of borrowing is associated with lower real house prices. These results indicate that the downturn in house prices could deepen with the looming economic recession and soaring interest rates.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Real Estate --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Other --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Prices --- Long term interest rates --- Financial services --- Short term interest rates --- Income --- National accounts --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Housing --- Interest rates --- China, People's Republic of