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This paper estimates Canada’s housing stock to gauge the supply-side component of the recent exuberance in the Canadian housing sector. The paper adds to the current related literature by focusing on housing units and reconstructing housing stock and households series. An error correction model is estimated at the provincial level over the period 1980-2013 to estimate a measure of housing stock desequilibrium. The model predicts an excess supply in the order of ½ percent above the housing stock level consistent with fundamentals as of 2013.

Housing -- Canada. --- Housing -- Prices -- Canada. --- Real property -- Canada. --- Infrastructure --- Investments: Stocks --- Real Estate --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Macroeconomics --- Investment & securities --- Property & real estate --- Stocks --- Housing prices --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- Saving and investment --- Canada

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The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.

Business & Economics --- Real Estate, Housing & Land Use --- Housing --- Evangelicalism. --- Economics --- Prices --- Religious aspects --- Christianity. --- Christianity and economics --- Evangelical religion --- Protestantism, Evangelical --- Evangelical Revival --- Fundamentalism --- Pietism --- Protestantism --- Financial Risk Management --- Infrastructure --- Insurance --- Real Estate --- Demography --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Cultural Economics: Religion --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Demographic Economics: General --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Financial Crises --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Property & real estate --- Population & demography --- Macroeconomics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Housing prices --- Population and demographics --- Asset bubbles --- National accounts --- Financial crises --- Financial institutions --- Population --- Saving and investment --- United States

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During the mid- to late 1980s, inflationary pressures were highly concentrated in asset markets in many industrial countries. This paper discusses why this may have occurred and then develops a forward-looking supply and demand model of the real estate market in which equilibrium prices depend on price expectations, monetary conditions, income, returns to alternative assets, and construction costs. In this model, the current equilibrium price is determined by expectations formed in different time periods by consumers and producers. The model and its more generalized dynamic specifications are estimated by maximum-likelihood methods. The empirical results do not reject the view that the relationship between real estate values and monetary policy was altered in 1980s.

Asset prices --- Credit --- Deflation --- Estimation --- Expectations --- Housing prices --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Housing --- Hypothesis Testing --- Inflation --- Land prices --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary base --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money Multipliers --- Money Supply --- Money supply --- Money --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Price Level --- Prices --- Property & real estate --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Real estate prices --- Real Estate --- Speculations --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- United States

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Sweden is experiencing double-digit housing price gains alongside rising household debt. A common interpretation is that mortgage lending boosted by expansionary monetary policy is driving up house prices. But theory suggests the value of housing collateral is also important for household’s capacity to borrow. This paper examines the interactions between housing prices and household debt using a three-equation model, finding that household borrowing impacts housing prices in the short-run, but the price of housing is the main driver of the secular trend in household debt over the long-run. Both housing prices and household debt are estimated to be moderately above their long-run equilibrium levels, but the adjustment toward equilibrium is not found to be rapid. Whereas low interest rates have contributed to the recent surge in housing prices, growth in incomes and financial assets play a larger role. Policy experiments suggest that a gradual phasing out of mortgage interest deductibility is likely to have a manageable effect on housing prices and household debt.

Banks and Banking --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Demand for Money --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Disposable income --- Real interest rates --- Prices --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Financial services --- Saving and investment --- National income --- Interest rates --- Sweden

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Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies.

Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Disposable income --- Asset prices --- Prices --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Saving and investment --- National income --- Sweden --- E-books