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The goal of this thesis is to do a comparative analysis of the effects of labour market policies on unemployment. The two countries of comparison are Belgium and Germany. The aim is to take studies that have been done so far and to compare their results for both countries. Therefore, some reasons for the existence of unemployment will be presented, before moving to a description of several labour market policies, which include unemployment compensation schemes. Then, the effects of unemployment benefits will be discussed in a more detailed way, especially in the case of a reduction in the duration and the generosity of unemployment benefits. Although most policies seem to have similar effects in Belgium and Germany, some heterogeneities persist. Some policies have a stronger impact on unemployment than others, and in some cases, differences within the groups of the unemployed can be identified. All in all, however, it can be seen that the effects of the labour market policies are mostly in line with what is predicted by the literature. Being a broad and complex topic, the elements presented in this thesis are not exhaustive. The framework of this work would otherwise have been exceeded.
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Recent theoretical and empirical work has cast doubt on the hypotheses of a linear Phillips curve and a symmetric quadratic loss function underlying traditional thinking on monetary policy. This paper analyzes the Barro-Gordon optimal monetary policy problem under alternative loss functions—including an asymmetric loss function corresponding to the “opportunistic approach” to disinflation—when the Phillips curve is convex. Numerical simulations are used to compare the implications of the alternative loss functions for equilibrium levels of inflation and unemployment. For parameter estimates relevant to the United States, the symmetric loss function dominates the asymmetric alternative.
Inflation --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary tightening --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- United States --- Income economics
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The paper examines formally the effects of labor market segmentation in a two-sector open economy model. The model demonstrates how the structure of the labor market affects the real exchange rate, defined as the relative price of traded and home goods, and is then used to examine the effects of two common labor market policies: increasing the degree of primary market coverage, and implementing wage restraint in the primary market. It is shown that increasing the degree of primary market coverage increases unemployment and leads to a real appreciation. Real wage restraint in the primary market, on the other hand, reduces unemployment, and has ambiguous but probably small effects on the real exchange rate.
Currency --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Income economics --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor --- Labour --- Real exchange rates --- Real wages --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Colombia
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The paper proves four theorems in an n-sector model of a segmented labor market, with search costs, and a continuum of workers with different reservation wages, who can apply to any number of sectors. The main conclusions are that: (i) an equilibrium with unemployment always exists; and (ii) some of the unemployment is involuntary, in the sense that it consists of workers with reservation wages below the equilibrium wage in the secondary market. These conclusions hold in the case of both separate and non-separate markets.
Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Income economics --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor supply --- Labor --- Labour --- Real wages --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General
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Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker, and the role of tough policies in signalling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also reflect the state of the economy. We present a model in which a policymaker maintains a fixed parity in good times, but devalues if the unemployment rate gets too high. Our main conclusion is that if there is persistence in unemployment, observing a tough policy in a given period may lower rather than raise the credibility of a no-devaluation pledge in subsequent periods. We test this implication on data for the interest rate differential between France and Germany and find support for our hypothesis.
Deflation --- Foreign Exchange --- Income economics --- Inflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Policy Coordination --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Objectives --- Price Level --- Prices --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Germany
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The empirical analysis indicates that in the Federal Republic the unemployed primarily influence the relationship between the level of real wages and productivity, rather than the growth of wages. This result suggests a distinction between an equilibrium natural rate of unemployment, which is estimated to have been 3-4 percent in the 1980s, and a quasi-equilibrium unemployment rate closer to actual rates of 7-8 percent. Corresponding to these two concepts of equilibrium unemployment, estimates are presented of alternative concepts of potential output that differ according to whether labor input is consistent with the quasi-equilibrium rate of unemployment or with the natural rate of unemployment.
Economic theory --- Income economics --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Potential output --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Real wages --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Germany
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Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.
Inflation --- Labor --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Disinflation --- Wages --- Prices --- United States --- Income economics
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The estimated potential output growth decelerated from 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2000 to 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2001. In the Israeli context, the sharp and exogenous nature of shocks at the end of 2000 complicated the task of estimation. The paper presents potential output estimates using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the unobserved components approach. The potential output and the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimates have been obtained simultaneously. The statistical data are also presented in the paper.
Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Labour --- income economics --- Potential output --- Output gap --- Production growth --- Cyclical unemployment --- Production --- Prices --- Economic theory --- Unemployment --- Israel --- Income economics
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Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.
Labor --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Turnover --- Vacancies --- Layoffs --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor force --- Labor markets --- Unemployment rate --- Labor flows --- Labor market --- United States --- Income economics
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Recent incidents of exchange rate collapse have provoked interest in the extent to which such events are determined by economic fundamentals. This paper considers whether interest rate differentials are appropriate measures of the risk of devaluation and whether this measure of devaluation risk reflects the movements of variables which capture internal and external balance. The paper finds that interest rate differentials reflect devaluation risk but that movements in fundamental variables have only a weak effect on devaluation risk in France and Italy. The most significant influence on devaluation risk is the position of the currency in its band in that the lower is the exchange value of a currency within the band, the greater is the perceived risk of devaluation.
Capacity --- Capital --- Currencies --- Currency --- Depreciation --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Exchange rates --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Government and the Monetary System --- Income economics --- Intangible Capital --- Investment --- Investments: General --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Systems --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money --- National accounts --- Payment Systems --- Regimes --- Saving and investment --- Standards --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Italy
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