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IMF Glossaries consists of terms, phraseological units, and institutional titles covering areas such as macroeconomics, money and banking, public finance, taxation, balance of payments, statistics, accounting, and economic development. They contain terminology relating to the IMF's organization and operations, as well as from the Articles of Agreement, By-Laws, Rules and Regulations, and other major IMF publications. Since the Glossaries are concept-based, synonyms are consolidated into one single entry. Cross- references refer to the main entry under which the various synonyms are listed ("see") and also draw the user's attention to terms that are related but not synonyms ("see also").

Economics: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Monetary Policy --- Economics of specific sectors --- Monetary economics --- Economic sectors --- Monetary policy --- Informal sector --- Economics

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As the “Volcker shock” is believed to have generated useful information on the effects of monetary policy, this paper develops a simple procedure to identify other unanticipated monetary contractions. The approach is applied to a panel data set spanning 162 countries (over the period 1970-2017), in which it identifies 147 large monetary contractions. The procedure selects episodes where a protracted period of loose monetary policy was suddenly followed by sizeable nominal interest rate increases. Focusing on contractions of significant size increases the signal-to-noise ratio, while they are unlikely to be accompanied by confounding “information effects” (markets interpreting a rate hike as the Central Bank being optimistic about the real side of the economy). A subsequent panel VAR analysis suggests that a 100-basis point rate hike reduces real GDP by 0.5 percent. This reduction in output seems to be persistent, pointing to a certain degree of hysteresis. The price level falls by 1.5 percent, indicating that the medium-/long-run impact of contractionary monetary shocks is not characterized by a neo-Fisherian response. Advanced economies appear to display more price stickiness than emerging/developing countries, as the former combine a more muted price response with a larger effect on output.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics

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We study the effect of COVID-19 containment measures on expected stock price volatility in some advanced economies, using event studies with hand-collected minute-level data and panel regressions with daily data. We find that six-month-ahead volatility indices dropped following announcements of initial or re-imposed lockdowns, and that they did not drop significantly following the easing of lockdowns. Such patterns are not as strong for three-month-ahead expected volatility and generally absent for one-month-ahead expected volatility. These results provide suggestive evidence for the existence of an intertemporal trade-off: although stringent containment measures cause short-term economic disruptions, they may reduce medium-term uncertainty (reflected in expected stock volatility) by boosting markets’ confidence that the outbreak would be under control more quickly.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics

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Labor earnings are the dominant income source for most individuals. Thus, an inclusive labor market is key for ensuring inclusive growth. In this paper we propose four principles that an inclusive labor market will embody: access, fairness, protection and voice. While measuring inclusivity presents challenges, we discuss how data can be used to shed light on the extent of inclusivity and document cross-country trends and stylized facts. We also discuss the role of policy in achieving an inclusive labor market, focusing on the need to rebalance growth; improve risk sharing; and fight discrimination. Several messages emerge. First, some policies entail a trade-off between the different dimensions of inclusivity. Second, it is important to view policies as a bundle, taking into account substitution and complementarities. Third, some policies are win-win, in the sense that they both increase inclusivity and improve overall efficiency.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics

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To examine the drivers of innovation, this paper studies the global R&D effort to fight the deadliest diseases and presents four results. We find: (1) global pharmaceutical R&D activity—measured by clinical trials—typically follows the ‘law of diminishing effort’: i.e. the elasticity of R&D effort with respect to market size is about ½ in the cross-section of diseases; (2) the R&D response to COVID-19 has been a major exception to this law, with the number of COVID-19 trials being 7 to 20 times greater than that implied by its market size; (3) the aggregate short-term elasticity of science and innovation can be very large, as demonstrated by aggregate flow of clinical trials increasing by 38% in 2020, with limited crowding out of trials for non-COVID diseases; and (4) public institutions and government-led incentives were a key driver of the COVID-19 R&D effort—with public research institutions accounting for 70 percent of all COVID-19 clinical trials globally and being 10 percentage points more likely to conduct a COVID-19 trial relative to private firms. Overall, while economists are naturally in favor of market size as a driving force for innovation (i.e.“if the market size is sufficiently large then innovation will happen”), our work suggests that scaling up global innovation may require a broader perspective on the drivers of innovation—including early-stage incentives, non-monetary incentives, and public institutions.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics