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Comment rendre compte d'une crise politique ou d'un accident biographique ? Une conversion religieuse peut-elle s'analyser avec les mêmes outils qu'une maladie, une reconversion professionnelle ou une innovation technique ? Les sciences sociales sont gênées face à l'imprévisibilité, la contingence et l'événement. Recherchant surtout les causalités, les effets des structures ou les régularités et les processus continus, elles disposent de peu de concepts et d'outils susceptibles d'aider à l'analyse de changements plus brusques et imprévisibles. Ceux-ci sont pourtant bien présents, par leur fréquence et par leurs effets, au sein des réalités qu'elles étudient. Cet ouvrage prend au sérieux ces situations de « bifurcation », terme générique désignant selon les cas « turning point », « événement », « révolution » ou « rupture ». Des sociologues, historiens, économistes et philosophes y proposent des outils théoriques et méthodologiques et présentent des analyses empiriques de situations diversifiées (tournants biographiques, ruptures organisationnelles, événements politiques...). Ils contribuent ainsi à une clarification des termes, des débats et des questions sur les dimensions temporelles et processuelles des parcours et des phénomènes sociaux.
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Over the past several years, notions of developmental trajectories-particularly criminal trajectories-have taken hold as important areas of investigation for researchers interested in the longitudinal study of crime. This accessible volume presents the first full-length overview of criminal trajectories as a concept and methodology and makes the case for a developmental approach to the topic. The volume shows how a developmental perspective is important from a practical standpoint, helping to inform the design of prevention and early intervention programs to forestall the onset of antisocial and criminal activity, particularly when it begins in childhood. Crime in this view does not suit a one-size-fits-all model. There are different types of criminals who develop as the result of different types of developmental factors and experiences. By considering what risk factors may set the stage for later crimes in certain circumstances, the authors argue that we may be able to intervene at any point along the life course and, if addressed early enough, prevent criminal behavior from taking root. 'Criminal Trajectories' offers a comprehensive synthesis of the findings from numerous criminal trajectory studies, presented through a multi-disciplinary lens. It addresses the policy and practice implications of these findings for the criminal justice system-including a critique of current sentencing and incarceration practices-and presents twelve recommendations informed by developmental frameworks for future work.
Criminal psychology. --- Crime --- Criminal behavior, Prediction of. --- Criminal behavior. --- Sociological aspects. --- Biological processes. --- Bootstrapping. --- Chronic. --- Class enumeration. --- Controversies. --- Correlates. --- Criminal career. --- Criminology. --- Cross-validation. --- Desistance. --- Developmental and life-course theories of crime. --- Developmental cascades. --- Dual taxonomy. --- Dynamic transaction. --- Heterogeneity. --- Historical background. --- Human agency. --- Intervention. --- Joint trajectories. --- Latent growth mixture modeling. --- Later life outcomes. --- Life course. --- Life span. --- Longitudinal data. --- Longitudinal. --- Machine learning. --- Monetary cost of crime. --- Nonnormality. --- Overextraction. --- Predictors. --- Prevention. --- Programming. --- Rehabilitation. --- Reification. --- Relational developmental systems theory. --- Reporting standards. --- Risk factor. --- Self-regulation. --- Semiparametric group-based trajectory modeling. --- Statistical technique. --- Trajectory. --- Turning points.
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