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April 2000 - As financial liberalization progressed, the general level of real interest rates increased more in developing countries than it did in industrial countries. Volatility in wholesale interest rates also jumped, often markedly, in most liberalizing countries. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads showed the greatest increase in developing countries, shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Financial liberalization was expected to make interest rates and asset prices more volatile, with distributional consequences such as reduced or relocated rents and increased competition in financial services. Honohan examines available data on money market and bank interest rates for evidence of whether these things happened. He shows that as more and more countries liberalized, the level and dynamic behavior of developing-country interest rates converged to industrial-country norms. In the short term, volatility increased in both real and nominal money market interest rates. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads, evidently the most repressed, showed the greatest increase as liberalization progressed - shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Whereas quoted bank spreads in industrial countries contracted somewhat in the late 1990s, spreads in developing countries remained much higher, presumably reflecting both market power and the higher risks of lending in the developing world. There was no clear-cut change in mean rates of inflation, monetary depth, or GDP growth. If anything, there was a small average improvement in inflation, but a decline in monetary depth and economic growth, relative to trends in industrial countries. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to explore optimal policy under financial liberalization. The author may be contacted atphonohan@worldbank.org.
Asset Prices --- Bank Interest Rates --- Bank Lending --- Bank Spreads --- Borrowers --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Depos Developing Countries --- Developing Country --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Liberalization --- Financial Literacy --- Insurance and Risk Mitigation --- Interest --- Interest Rate --- Interest Rates --- Lending --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market Interest Rates --- Money Market --- Private Sector Development --- Real Interest --- Real Interest Rates --- Treasury --- Treasury Bill --- Treasury Bill Rates
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From the New York Times bestselling author of This Time Is Different, "a fascinating and important book" (Ben Bernanke) about the surprising reasons why paper money lies at the heart of many of the world's most difficult problemsThe world is drowning in cash-and it's making us poorer and less safe. In The Curse of Cash, acclaimed economist Kenneth Rogoff explores the past, present, and future of currency, from ancient China to today's cryptocurrencies, showing why, contrary to conventional economic wisdom, paper money surprisingly lies at the heart of some of the world's most difficult problems.Cash is becoming increasingly marginalized in the legal economy, but there is a record amount of it in circulation-
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A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuanAt first glance, the modern history of the global economic system seems to support the long-held view that the leading world power's currency-the British pound, the U.S. dollar, and perhaps someday the Chinese yuan-invariably dominates international trade and finance. In How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists provide a reassessment of this history and the theories behind the conventional wisdom.Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries, and marshaling extensive new data to test established theories of how global currencies work, Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia Chiţu argue for a new view, in which several national monies can share international currency status, and their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how changes in technology and in the structure of international trade and finance have reshaped the landscape of international currencies so that several international financial standards can coexist. They show that multiple international and reserve currencies have in fact coexisted in the pastupending the traditional view of the British pound's dominance prior to 1945 and the U.S. dollar's dominance more recently.Looking forward, the book tackles the implications of this new framework for major questions facing the future of the international monetary system, from whether the euro and the Chinese yuan might address their respective challenges and perhaps rival the dollar, to how increased currency competition might affect global financial stability.
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"Inflation, in which all prices and wages in an economy rise, is mysterious. If a war breaks out in the Middle East, and the price of oil goes up, the mechanism is no great mystery-supply and demand often work pretty visibly. But if you ask the grocer why the price of bread is higher, he or she will blame the wholesaler, who will blame the baker, who will blame the wheat supplier, and so on. Perhaps the ultimate cause is a government printing more money, but there is really no way to know this for certain but to sit down in an office with statistics, armed with some decent economic theory. But current economic theory doesn't really explain why we haven't seen inflation for so long, and more and more economists think that current theory doesn't hold together, or provide much guidance for how central banks should behave if inflation does break out. Many also worry that central banks have much less power over the economy than they think they do, and much less understanding of the mechanism behind what power they do have. The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level is a comprehensive new approach to monetary policy. Economist John Cochrane argues that money has value because the government accepts it for tax payments. This insight, he argues, leads to a deep re-reading of monetary policy and institutions. Inflation comes when a government is unable to repay its debts, rather than from mismanagement of the split of debt between money and bonds. In the book, he will analyze institutional design, historical episodes, and compare fiscal theory to the Keynesian and new-Keynesian theory based on interest rate targets, and to monetarism. The book offers an overview and introduction to the range of contemporary monetary economics and history of thought as well as the fiscal theory"--
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"For many, the most authoritative history of US economic policy is told by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, in their 1963 PUP book, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960, as well as Alan Meltzer's multi-volume history of the Federal Reserve, published in 2003 and 2010. Both works were written by economists marshalling historical data to make an argument about what type of economic policy works best. Friedman and Schwartz's book led to the rise of monetarism, the idea that virtually the only thing governments can or should do when it comes to the economy is determine how much money to put in it. If there aren't enough jobs, for example, just put more money in the economy through bank lending, and businesses will hire more. There's no need for the government, the theory holds, to stimulate spending from the bottom up or encourage hiring or improve wages through any other means. These days, the concept of monetarism, though still a predominant policy framework, is seen by many as a very particular and narrow viewpoint, but there's no authoritative book on the level of Friedman and Schwartz that sets the record straight. In A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 1961-2021, economist Alan Blinder lays out the history of US economic policy since Friedman and Schwartz, through the wider lens of the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. He shows, decade by decade, that a powerful influence that the government has on the economy is not just through how much money it puts in it (monetary policy) but through decisions on how money is spent (fiscal policy). In this book Alan Blinder shifts the narrative dominance from monetarism and interest rates to a shared influence of monetary and fiscal policy, and he shows how the government has long been using various policies to stimulate spending, ranging from tax breaks and credits to direct checks to citizens. He does this from an insider's perspective, offering an authoritative history of US economic policy from Kennedy to COVID"--
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