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In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. Egypt's cabinet approved the electoral constituencies' law, the last step before calling for the House of Representatives elections, the final milestone in the political roadmap initiated in July 2013. Presidential elections were held in Tunisia, with Beji Caid Essebsi sworn in as the new president in December. Iran's nuclear talks with the P5+1 were extended for 6 months--while bilateral talks continue-with the aim of reaching a deal in July 2015. In Iraq, the government and the Kurdish region reached an agreement in December resolving a longstanding dispute over the budget and distribution of oil revenues. Meanwhile, Lebanon, Yemen and Libya still struggle to maintain a functional government. The global economy is estimated to have expanded by 2.6 percent (q/q annualized rate), better than the second quarter of 2014, but unchanged from the slow pace seen in 2012 and 2013. But the most important development is that international oil prices have literally collapsed, reaching a level below USD 50 per barrel (Brent crude) in early January, a drop of 50 percent since their peak in mid-June 2014.

Arab spring --- Arab transition countries --- Development economics --- Economic growth --- Economic policy --- Growth --- Investment --- MENA --- Oil exporters --- Oil importers --- Oil prices --- Poverty --- Transition countries --- Volatility

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The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015 is slightly more favorable than in 2013-14, when the region as a whole grew at 3 percent a year. The World Bank group's latest MENA Economic Monitor projects MENA's economic growth to average 5.2 percent in 2015 driven by domestic consumption, easing political tensions crowding-in investments in Egypt and Tunisia, and full resumption of oil production in Libya. However the violent conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Libya with their spillovers to Lebanon and Jordan could make MENA's economic prospects bleak. The report has a special focus on the corrosive nature of the large energy subsidies in MENA. The MENA region is currently experiencing growth below potential, high unemployment, urban air pollution and congestion, and severe water scarcity that is undermining agriculture. The report shows how energy subsidies have contributed to these development challenges. Reforming these subsidies, therefore, should be one of the highest priorities of policymakers.

Arab spring --- Conflict --- Development economics --- Economic growth --- Economic policy --- Energy subsidies --- Investment --- Pollution --- Poverty --- Transition countries --- Water

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While the focus has been on the recent change in government in Egypt, five countries in the Middle East and North Africa Region, including Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan and Iran are facing a growth slowdown, rising fiscal deficits and debt, and high unemployment and inflation. Continued political turmoil in Egypt and spillovers from the civil war in Syria to Jordan and Lebanon threaten to make their economic situation worse. While easing political tensions in Tunisia and post-election improvements in Iran's international relations may help these countries, the overall macroeconomic outlook in all five countries for the rest of 2013 is grim.

Arab Spring --- Arab Transition Countries --- Development Economics --- Economic Policy --- Growth --- International Economics and Trade --- Investment --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Volatility

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Ongoing regional tensions, together with a challenging (albeit slightly improving) external environment, have hit the economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region hard. Economic growth is slowing, fiscal buffers are depleting, unemployment is rising, and inflation is mounting in seven of the region's most vulnerable economies-- Egypt, Tunisia, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen and Libya. Short-term policy actions such as increasing public sector wages and subsidies-aimed at reducing social tensions--exacerbate the situation, which is driven by long-standing structural weaknesses, including labor market rigidities, complicated and opaque regulations, infrastructure deficiencies, regressive and inefficient subsidies, and inadequate social safety nets. While these countries face an unstable political and macroeconomic environment, the growth slowdown after the Arab Spring creates a unique opportunity to address these structural problems to both create fiscal space and restructure the economy towards job creation and inclusive growth.

Arab Spring --- Arab Transition Countries --- Development Economics --- Economic Policy --- Growth --- International Economics and Trade --- Investment --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Volatility

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The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015 is slightly more favorable than in 2013-14, when the region as a whole grew at 3 percent a year. The World Bank group's latest MENA Economic Monitor projects MENA's economic growth to average 5.2 percent in 2015 driven by domestic consumption, easing political tensions crowding-in investments in Egypt and Tunisia, and full resumption of oil production in Libya. However the violent conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Libya with their spillovers to Lebanon and Jordan could make MENA's economic prospects bleak. The report has a special focus on the corrosive nature of the large energy subsidies in MENA. The MENA region is currently experiencing growth below potential, high unemployment, urban air pollution and congestion, and severe water scarcity that is undermining agriculture. The report shows how energy subsidies have contributed to these development challenges. Reforming these subsidies, therefore, should be one of the highest priorities of policymakers.

Arab Countries --- Arab spring --- Bottom 40 percent --- Conflict --- Economic inequality --- Grievances --- Life satisfaction --- Middle class --- Pollution --- Poverty --- Shared prosperity --- Subjective wellbeing --- Transition countries --- Uprisings --- Water --- Middle East --- North Africa