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Local weather shocks have been shown to affect local economic output, however, little is known about their propagation through production networks. Using a six-sector global dataset over the past fifty years, this paper examines the effect of weather fluctuations and extreme weather events on sectoral economic production and the transmission of weather shocks across sectors, countries and over time. I document that agriculture is the most harmed sector by heat shocks, droughts and cyclones. Using input-output interlinkages, I find that sectors at later stages of the supply chain suffer from substantial and persistent losses over time due to domestic and foreign heat shocks in other sectors. A counterfactual analysis of the average annual output loss accounting for heat shocks across trade partners shows a substantial underestimation of the economic cost of temperature increases since 2000.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics
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Local weather shocks have been shown to affect local economic output, however, little is known about their propagation through production networks. Using a six-sector global dataset over the past fifty years, this paper examines the effect of weather fluctuations and extreme weather events on sectoral economic production and the transmission of weather shocks across sectors, countries and over time. I document that agriculture is the most harmed sector by heat shocks, droughts and cyclones. Using input-output interlinkages, I find that sectors at later stages of the supply chain suffer from substantial and persistent losses over time due to domestic and foreign heat shocks in other sectors. A counterfactual analysis of the average annual output loss accounting for heat shocks across trade partners shows a substantial underestimation of the economic cost of temperature increases since 2000.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics
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Through the 2000s, Korea’s export and import linkages to advanced and emerging markets increased significantly. At the same time, the correlation of output growth between Korea and these economies rose. This paper investigates the nature of the link between trade linkages and the comovement of international business cycles (BC) using Korean industry-level domestic and international input-output data. The results suggest that, at the industry-level, higher export linkages lead to a larger positive GDP growth comovement, while higher import linkages lead to higher negative employment growth comovement. Furthermore, the decomposition of aggregate BC comovement shows that the increase in trade with China has contributed the most to aggregate BC comovement, while the impact of trade linkages on BC comovement is propagated domestically via vertical linkages. These findings suggest that the Korean economy can be significantly affected by a few countries that are highly linked through trade to Korea and/or a few industries that are highly interconnected to other industries.
International trade --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International Business Cycles --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Trade: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Economic growth --- Imports --- Exports --- Manufacturing --- Business cycles --- Economic sectors --- Economic theory --- Korea, Republic of
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This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks’ large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral linkages. We develop a Contagion Mapping model fully calibrated with bank-level data to study the contagion potential of an exogenous shock via credit and funding risks. We find that tipping points shifting the euro area banking system from a less vulnerable state to a highly vulnerable state are a non-linear function of the combination of network structures and bank-specific characteristics.
Bankruptcy. --- Bankruptcy --- Cessio bonorum --- Insolvency --- Privileged debts --- Business failures --- Commercial law --- Debt --- Law and legislation --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Network Formation and Analysis: Theory --- Financial Forecasting and Simulation --- Liquidation --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Banking --- Finance --- Financial services law & regulation --- Liquidity --- Asset liquidity --- Systemic risk --- Commercial banks --- Asset and liability management --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial institutions --- Credit risk --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Banks and banking --- Economics --- Financial risk management --- United States
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The paper applies a network analysis framework to analyze the regional and global integration of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. We compare network-based measures of trade integration to conventional measures, decomposing integration along several dimensions to better understand the sources of trade connectivity and their impact on growth. The paper finds that LAC countries are relatively well integrated in terms of links to diversified markets, but the strength of those links is weak. Comparing trade integration to predictions from gravity models, we find many LAC countries have significant scope to improve connectivity and increase their roles in regional and world trade networks.
Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Network Formation and Analysis: Theory --- Trade: General --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Econometric Modeling: General --- International economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Trade balance --- Exports --- Trade integration --- Trade agreements --- Gravity models --- International trade --- Economic integration --- Econometric analysis --- Balance of trade --- International economic integration --- Commercial treaties --- Econometric models --- Mexico
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In the last two decades, manufacturing industries in Korea have become more concentrated, and interconnectedness across industries and to foreign countries has risen via vertical relationships and trade linkages. This paper investigates the transmission of economic shocks in such a highly concentrated and interconnected structure, focusing on the role of vertical and trade linkages and using the industry-level international input-output data. The results suggest that, first, the role of vertical and trade linkages in propagating growth shocks from both domestic sources and external sources is important. Second, the growth impact of a few key sources of economic shocks is relatively large. These findings highlight that economic shocks in a few key industries and/or major trading partners that are transmitted through vertical and trade linkages can lead to large swings in the overall economy. This paper contributes to the understanding of the potential interactions between the industrial structure and economic growth and stability.
Financial crises --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International Business Cycles --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Trade: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- International economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Macroeconomics --- Manufacturing --- Exports --- Productivity --- Imports --- Labor productivity --- Economic sectors --- International trade --- Production --- Industrial productivity --- China, People's Republic of
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Our study uses administrative data on firm-to-firm transactions and quasi- experimental variation in the rollout of electronic invoicing reforms in Peru to study the diffusion of e-invoicing through firm networks and its effect on tax compliance. We find that voluntary e-invoicing adoption is higher amongst firms with partners who are mandated to adopt e-invoicing, implying positive technology adoption spillovers. Spillovers are stronger from downstream partners and from export-oriented firms. Firms are less likely to continue transacting with a partner who has been mandated into e-invoicing, with the effect only partially reversed if both firms adopt e-invoicing, suggesting that network segmentation may occur. Smaller firms who transact with partners mandated into e-invoicing report 11 percent more sales and pay 17 more VAT in the year that their partner is mandated to adopt e-invoicing, suggesting positive spillovers in tax compliance behavior for this subset of firms.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Taxation --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Externalities --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Technology --- general issues --- Value-added tax --- Taxes --- Tax return filing compliance --- Revenue administration --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Positive spillovers --- Tax spillovers --- Tax policy --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Spendings tax --- Tax administration and procedure --- International finance
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This Note explores the design and governance of platforms to enhance cross-border payments in line with public policy goals. While much innovation in recent years has more narrowly targeted end-user frictions, the vision in this paper is based on the mandate of the IMF, governed by the central banks and finance ministries of 190 member countries. Cross-border payments present the foundation for the global financial system, and its functioning is overseen by the IMF.
Economics: General --- Macroeconomics --- Banks and Banking --- Industries: Financial Services --- Information Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Criminology --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy --- IT Management --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Distributed ledgers --- Knowledge management --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Economic sectors --- Financial crises --- International reserves --- Central banks --- Central Bank digital currencies --- Technology --- Information and data management --- Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) --- Crime --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Currency crises --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Information resources management --- Money laundering
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The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a serious threat to the survival of Japanese firms, highlighting the importance of understanding how and why firms exit. In this paper, we use a rich firm-level dataset of Japanese firms to document how firm exit patterns have evolved between 2007 and 2017. Firm exit patterns have been heavily influenced by Japan’s demographic trends, as a majority of exits in recent years were voluntary exits of firms (business closures) owned by CEOs aged 65 years or older without business successors. In contrast to this increase in voluntary exits, other “traditional” firm exits (such as bankruptcies), have declined. These findings underscore the importance of addressing business transition issues in a rapidly aging society.
Corporate Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Demography --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Bankruptcy --- Liquidation --- Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Population & demography --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Manufacturing industries --- International economics --- Aging --- Small and medium enterprises --- Manufacturing --- Interest payments --- Demographic change --- Population and demographics --- Economic sectors --- External debt --- Population aging --- Small business --- Debt service --- Demographic transition --- Japan
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The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a serious threat to the survival of Japanese firms, highlighting the importance of understanding how and why firms exit. In this paper, we use a rich firm-level dataset of Japanese firms to document how firm exit patterns have evolved between 2007 and 2017. Firm exit patterns have been heavily influenced by Japan’s demographic trends, as a majority of exits in recent years were voluntary exits of firms (business closures) owned by CEOs aged 65 years or older without business successors. In contrast to this increase in voluntary exits, other “traditional” firm exits (such as bankruptcies), have declined. These findings underscore the importance of addressing business transition issues in a rapidly aging society.
Japan --- Corporate Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Demography --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Bankruptcy --- Liquidation --- Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Population & demography --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Manufacturing industries --- International economics --- Aging --- Small and medium enterprises --- Manufacturing --- Interest payments --- Demographic change --- Population and demographics --- Economic sectors --- External debt --- Population aging --- Small business --- Debt service --- Demographic transition
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