Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

In this paper we seek to answer the question of how the patterns of bilateral trade are altered by rising trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Specifically, we investigate whether geopolitical alignments between country pairs determine how bilateral trade flows react during periods of greater uncertainty. Using a structural gravity framework augmented with a text-based TPU index and a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting records, we find a significant negative effect of the latter when TPU is elevated, indicating a shift to trading among “friends” in uncertain times.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International Relations and International Political Economy: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Trade policy --- International trade --- Trade balance --- Plurilateral trade --- Trade tensions --- Trade barriers --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This report updates the 2009 IEO evaluation of IMF Involvement in International Trade Policy Issues. Since then, the composition and structure of international trade have evolved, but trade has not regained its former dynamism. With increasing concern about potential winners and losers from trade, there has been a loss of political support for globalization, increasing trade tensions and protectionism, and the institutional framework supporting multilateral trade has come under heavy strain. The report concludes that overall the IMF deserves considerable credit for its active and timely response, playing a prominent role in championing commitment to an open, rules-based multilateral trading system. The Fund has largely implemented the recommendations of the 2009 evaluation and has strengthened and consolidated its trade policy analysis and advice, appropriately focusing on the key macroeconomic effects and associated risks of trade policy developments at the national and international levels. IMF advocacy on trade has been underpinned by a major expansion in the attention to trade policy issues in multilateral surveillance—and to some extent in bilateral surveillance—supported by high-quality research and analysis, building on the Fund’s well-established modeling capacity. Looking forward, the Fund will need to sustain its current high level of advocacy and analysis on trade policy issues and consider how to increase the overall impact of this work. Key challenges include: contributing to foster a recommitment to trade policy cooperation; further attention to translating multilateral surveillance into bilateral policy advice; consolidating relations with partner institutions; and increased attention to rapidly developing trade policy issues. Across all these dimensions, care will be needed to ensure appropriate evenhandedness in trade policy surveillance across countries. A holistic review of the IMF’s “trade strategy” would help to guide trade policy work and the allocation of scarce resources among competing priorities.

Commercial policy --- Commercial policy. --- International trade. --- International cooperation. --- International Monetary Fund --- International Monetary Fund. --- Evaluation. --- Commercial treaties --- Exports and Imports --- Income economics --- International economics --- International organization --- International Trade Organizations --- International trade organizations --- International trade --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Multilateral trade --- Trade agreements --- Trade Policy --- Trade policy --- Trade tensions --- China, People's Republic of

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five quarters following a one standard deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. We demonstrate that these results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables and that they are robust to different measures of trade uncertainty and trade openness. Our analysis suggests that the detrimental effect of trade tensions goes beyond lower trade growth, as uncertainty can reduce investment and the economy’s long-term growth potential.

Europe --- Economic integration. --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Trade policy --- International trade --- Trade tensions --- Trade balance --- Protectionism --- Exports --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade --- Ireland

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

International cooperation, economic and financial integration, and technological progress have delivered enormous benefits across the globe during the past decades. Yet, in many countries, these benefits have not been shared adequately to prevent eroding trust in institutions and weakening support for the global system that has made these gains possible.

Japan --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Criminology --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Integrated Policy Framework --- Illicit financial flows --- Trade tensions --- Public debt --- Structural reforms --- Crime --- International trade --- Macrostructural analysis --- Economic policy --- Money laundering --- Debts, Public --- White-collar crime

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The Fund has a range of modalities and tools to cover spillovers. However, there remains scope to enhance synergies between global and country-specific spillover coverage and to foster cross-country dialogue. Practical guidance and enhanced information-sharing would also allow for more systematic surveillance of spillovers. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to continue expanding the research frontier covering new spillovers and channels and developing new tools and data sets. Therefore, filling these remaining gaps in the Fund’s spillover work would allow for a more coordinated and evenhanded surveillance of spillovers.

China, People's Republic of --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Political Economy --- Macroeconomics --- Diseases: Contagious --- Emigration and Immigration --- Finance: General --- Exports and Imports --- Monetary Policy --- Externalities --- Health Behavior --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International Migration --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Monetary economics --- Political economy --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- Finance --- International economics --- Monetary policy --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- COVID-19 --- Health --- International monetary system --- Money --- Migration --- Population and demographics --- Financial sector stability --- Trade tensions --- International trade --- Economics --- International finance --- Communicable diseases --- Emigration and immigration --- Financial services industry --- Covid-19