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This paper compares redistribution through trade restrictions versus domestic lump-sum transfers. When preferences are non-homothetic, even domestic lump-sum transfers affect relative prices. Thus, contrary to the conventional wisdom, domestic lump-sum transfers are not necessarily superior to distortionary trade policy. The paper develops this argument in the context of the food export bans imposed by many developing countries in the late 2000s.
Non-Homothetic Preferences --- Redistribution --- Trade Restrictions
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To what extent has Sub-Saharan Africa's slow economic growth over the past five decades been due to price and trade policies that discouraged production of agricultural relative to non-agricultural tradables? This paper uses a new set of estimates of policy induced distortions to relative agricultural prices to address this question econometrically. First, the authors test if these policy distortions respond to economic growth, using rainfall and international commodity price shocks as instrumental variables. They find that on impact there is no significant response of relative agricultural price distortions to changes in real GDP per capita growth. Then, the authors test the reverse proposition and find a statistically significant and sizable negative effect of relative agricultural price distortions on the growth rate of Sub-Saharan African countries. The fixed effects estimates yield that, during the 1960-2005 period, a ten percentage points increase in distortions to relative agricultural prices decreased the region's real GDP per capita growth rate by about half a percentage point per annum.
Achieving Shared Growth --- Agricultural incentives --- Agriculture --- Economic growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Inequality --- Markets and Market Access --- Rural Development --- Trade restrictions
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Restricting cross-border trade through export bans in an attempt to stabilize domestic prices has been a particularly popular policy tool used by many sub-Saharan countries in recent years. However, little is known about how the variability in harvests and seasonality - two critical dimensions of smallholder agriculture in Africa - mediate the effects of export bans on household welfare. This study assesses the short-term impact of export bans on prices and welfare of households in Malawi, accounting for these heterogeneities. It uses monthly panel data on maize prices from 152 markets in Malawi and neighboring countries. To identify the impacts of the bans, the study compares the change in price dispersion between a domestic market in Malawi and another market in a neighboring country, relative to the price dispersion between the domestic market and other markets within Malawi that are at a similar distance as the domestic-foreign market pair. The findings show that export bans, in the short run, are associated with lower domestic prices, lower relative prices, and less seasonality in prices in Malawi. This is after accounting for harvest levels and the existence of trade restrictions in neighboring countries. The short-run effects of the export bans help explain why policymakers are likely to engage in the use of such policies. However, the welfare analysis shows that the welfare gains and poverty reduction effects are small in magnitude and likely to be offset by the long-run distortionary effects of restrictive trade policies.
Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agricultural Trade --- Export Ban --- Food Security --- Grain Market --- Grain Prices --- Household Welfare --- Inequality --- Price Dispersion --- Trade Policy --- Trade Restrictions
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This paper examines the concept of trade facilitation in services from the perspective of the recent literature on the determinants of services trade. The aim is to conceptualize trade facilitation in this area as a dimension of international integration beyond the baseline restrictiveness of policy, as captured by indicators of discriminatory market access. The analysis focuses on the role of governance structures, institutions, and transparency in shaping the environment for trading in services internationally. In addition to examining these factors, the paper provides some novel empirical estimates. Using a gravity model, the analysis finds that the ad valorem equivalents of common measures of institutional quality, governance, and transparency are larger relative to measures of sheer policy restrictiveness, frequently a significant multiple. The paper also shows that the ad valorem equivalents of data restrictions are of similar magnitude to policy restrictions in services. The conclusion is that framing discussions of trade facilitation in services around the concept of reducing trade costs - specifically those stemming from areas where improvement is needed in governance, institutions, and transparency - could potentially bring significant benefits in increased integration of the global services economy.
Gravity Model --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Market Access --- Restrictiveness --- Services Trade --- Trade and Services --- Trade Facilitation --- Trade in Services --- Trade Policy --- Trade Restrictions
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This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.
Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Sanctions --- Economic Theory & Research --- Energy --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- GCC --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Oil Embargo --- Trade Restrictions --- Transport --- Transport Economics Policy and Planning --- Europe --- United States
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Are changes in services markets provoking reform, restrictions, or inertia? To address this question, this paper draws on a new World Bank-World Trade Organization Services Trade Policy Database. The paper analyzes the services trade policies of 68 economies in 23 subsectors across five broad areas - financial services, telecommunications, distribution, transportation, and professional services. Policy measures are quantified into a Services Trade Restrictions Index (STRI) following a novel, consistent and transparent framework. The paper identifies patterns of services trade policies across sectors and economies, and secular trends over the past decade. Higher income economies are still more open on average than developing economies, but the chronology of reform differs markedly across sectors. In telecommunications and finance, there is convergence toward greater openness driven by liberalization in the previously more restrictive developing economies. In the hitherto universally protected transport and professional services, there is policy divergence, as some higher income economies pioneer reform. But while explicit restrictions are being lowered in most services sectors-in contrast to recent developments in goods trade policy - there is greater recourse to regulatory scrutiny, especially in higher income economies. These measures could reflect legitimate prudential or security concerns, but they could also reflect recourse to less transparent forms of protection.
Distribution --- Financial Services --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Professional Services --- Services Trade --- Services Trade Policy Database --- Telecommunications --- Trade and Services --- Trade and Transport --- Trade In Services --- Trade Policy --- Trade Restrictions --- Transportation
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This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries-the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey-to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and diversification. The average welfare effects are not indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among workers, landowners, and capitalists.
Deep Trade Integration --- Economic Theory & Research --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- General Equilibrium Effects --- Insurance & Risk Mitigation --- International Economics & Trade --- Islamic State --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Syrian War --- The Levant --- Trade & Services --- Trade Policy --- Trade Restrictions
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This paper describes the Services Trade Policy Database, a joint initiative by the World Bank and the World Trade Organization Secretariat, which builds on a database developed by the World Bank nearly 10 years ago and draws on a recent Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development database. The Services Trade Policy Database offers comparable information on services trade policies for 68 economies in 23 subsectors across five broad areas - financial services, telecommunications, distribution, transportation, and professional services. The database features several improvements. First, the data are collected according to a newly developed policy classification, consistent with the earlier World Bank database and the current Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development database, enabling a comparison of services policies over a significant period and across a large cross-section of industrial and developing economies. Second, in addition to trade policies, the database contains information on licensing conditions and data restrictions. Third, policy restrictiveness is quantified following a more systematic approach that aggregates the information within a single consistent and transparent framework. Building on these innovations will make it possible to identify global patterns of services trade policies and secular trends in policy making over the past decade.
Distribution --- Financial Services --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Investment --- Professional Services --- Services Trade --- Services Trade Policy Database --- Telecommunications --- Trade and Services --- Trade and Transport --- Trade In Services --- Trade Policy --- Trade Restrictions --- Transportation --- World Trade Organization
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This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.
Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Sanctions --- Economic Theory & Research --- Energy --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- GCC --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Oil Embargo --- Trade Restrictions --- Transport --- Transport Economics Policy and Planning --- Europe --- United States
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This is open access volume of the NL ARMS offers an interdisciplinary view on the domain of Compliance and Integrity in International Military Trade (CIIMT), integrating defence economics, international law, arms export control frameworks and policies, information management, organizational sciences and ethics. Although, in academia, and from an interdisciplinary perspective, CIIMT constitutes a relatively novel research domain, across private and public defence-related sectors, the subject evokes high levels of attention and interest, instigating a need for critical thinking, reflection and creativity to address ensuing multi-faceted issues and problems. The Faculty of Military Sciences at the Netherlands Defence Academy extends an in-house MSc programme on CIIMT, which, by integrating practice-based and scientific-based knowledge, aims to contribute to this need. The MSc programme on CIIMT is concerned with exploring, analysing, understanding, explaining, controlling and improving the military dimension in international military trade. More particularly, CIIMT studies managerial questions regarding strategic trade control of military and dual-use goods and services. CIIMT ties in with the Netherlands Defence Academy’s vision on scientific education, embedded in the reflective practitioners' paradigm uniting both management and leadership skills needed to decide and operate in high-tension and high-risk knowledge intensive environments. The Faculty of Military Sciences uses the reflective practitioners’ paradigm to refer to critical thinking, reflection and Bildung that characterize its thinking doers, the so-called Thinking Soldiers, either at the academic Bachelor’s or Master’s level. In view of the complexity of the international trade regarding military and dual-use goods and services, the rapid evolvement of strategic trade control and frameworks, and its importance to procurement processes, defence organizations require innovative thinking doers, who, based on an in-depth understanding, from an interdisciplinary perspective can be expected to find - and take responsibility for - creative solutions to problems. NL ARMS 2021 comprises, amongst others, contributions from students and lecturers partaking in this programme. All the editors are affiliated with the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda, The Netherlands.
Public international law --- Human rights --- International humanitarian law --- Constitutional & administrative law --- International relations --- Warfare & defence --- International military trade --- Military and dual-use goods and services --- International peace and security --- Strategic trade control --- Export control law --- Compliance and integrity --- Sanctions and arms embargoes --- Defence industry --- Trade restrictions --- Internal compliance program --- Open Access
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