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Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC), Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members' trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs, he proposes a variable taking into account the number of years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model. The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the most successful among them, with an estimated positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period.

Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Theory and Research --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Gravity model --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Public Sector Development --- Regional Trade --- Regional Trade Agreements --- Rules of origin --- Trade agreement --- Trade creation --- Trade Effect --- Trade effects --- Trade flows --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy

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Agriculture including food products is of particular interest for Ukraine. However, in free trade agreements involving the European Union, agriculture is always given special treatment and subject to less and slower liberalization than other sectors. This paper employs the standard Global Trade Analysis Project model in order to assess how World Trade Organization accession affects agriculture in Ukraine, and how potential bilateral tariff cuts may interact with potential productivity gains within Ukrainian agriculture. The results indicate that, due to trade liberalization, Ukraine can expect gains from a more efficient allocation of its resources in line with comparative advantage, leading to an increase of production and exports of wheat, other grains, and oilseeds, but also of several processed food products that benefit from less expensive intermediate inputs. However, Ukraine's exports are concentrated on a small number of destinations, especially Russia and some other Former Soviet Union countries because they fail to meet quality standards elsewhere. When Ukrainian production of these products increases due to increased allocative efficiency, exports to Russia increase further and prices there fall, generating negative terms of trade effects that largely offset the allocative gains. Ukrainian imports of agricultural products increase as well, partly because Ukrainian consumers switch to higher quality imported goods even though domestic production increases. Regarding free trade agreement negotiations with the European Union, these results highlight for Ukraine the fact that improved agricultural productivity will help to get most out of improved market access. However, the results also highlight for Ukraine the great importance of adopting internationally accepted quality standards in order to diversify its export structure.

Agricultural products --- Bilateral tariff --- Bilateral tariff cuts --- Comparative advantage --- Domestic production --- Economic integration --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Export structure --- Exports --- Free Trade --- Free trade agreements --- Global Trade --- Global Trade Analysis --- Intermediate inputs --- International Economics and Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market access --- Negative terms of trade effects --- Private Sector Development --- Terms of trade --- Trade Agreement --- Trade Law --- Trade liberalization --- Trade Policy --- World Trade --- World Trade Organization

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Most researchers focus on the political economy (interest group pressures) approach to analyzing why customs unions are formed, but terms-of-trade effects were also important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. The theoretical literature on trade follows two different approaches to explaining the endogenous formation of customs unions: (1) The terms-of-trade approach, in which integrating partners are willing to exploit terms-of-trade effects. Using the terms-of-trade approach, one concludes that tariffs on imports from the rest of the world should increase after the formation of a regional bloc, because the market power of the region increases and terms-of-trade externalities can be internalized in the custom union's common external tariff. As the union forms, the domestic market gets larger and members' international market power increases. (2) The interest group pressures (political economy) approach, in which, for example, the customs union may offer the potential for exchanging markets or protection within the enlarged market. Using this approach, one would usually conclude that tariffs for the rest of the world decline after the custom union's formation - a rationale related to free-rider effects in larger lobbying groups. It is important to recognize the forces behind the formation of customs unions. Most researchers have focused on the second approach and neglected terms of trade as a possible explanatory variable. Both rationales explain a significant share of tariff information. Results, write Olarreaga, Soloaga, and Winters, suggest that both forces were important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade effects account for between 6 percent and 28 percent of the explained variation in the structure of protection. There is also evidence that the terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the political economy of trade protection. Marcelo Olarreaga may be contacted at molarreaga@worldbank.org.

Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Domestic Market --- Economic Policy --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- External Tariff --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- International Market --- International Markets --- International Prices --- International Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Multilateral System --- Political Economy --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Development --- Regionalism --- Share Of World Exports --- Tariff Data --- Tariff Levels --- Tariff Structures --- Tariffs --- Terms Of Trade --- Trade --- Trade Effects --- Trade Externalities --- Trade Policy --- World Prices

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June 2000 - If negotiations on trade in services at the World Trade Organization are to advance liberalization beyond levels undertaken unilaterally and lead to more balanced outcomes, reciprocity must play a greater role in negotiations. This may be facilitated by the use of negotiating rules that establish credible links across sectors and modes of delivery. Negotiations on trade in services at the World Trade Organization (WTO) have so far produced little liberalization beyond levels countries have undertaken unilaterally. One reason: limited application of the traditional negotiating principle of reciprocity. In particular, participants have failed to exploit the scope of the services agreement (GATS) for the exchange of market-access concessions across different modes of supply - cross-border delivery and the movement of capital and workers. Using the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, Mattoo and Olarreaga propose a negotiating formula that generalizes the fundamental WTO principle of reciprocity to include alternative modes of delivery. Adoption of this formula as a basis for negotiations could bring greater commitments to liberalization on all modes of delivery, producing substantial gains in global welfare and more balanced outcomes. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to improve trade policy in goods and services. The authors may be contacted at amattoo@worldbank.org or molarreaga@worldbank.org

Agreement on Trade --- Border Trade --- Comparative Advantage --- Concessions --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Foreign Labor --- Foreign Markets --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market Access --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Development --- Reciprocal Reduction --- Reciprocity --- Tariff --- Tariff Reduction --- Terms Of Trade --- Terms Of Trade Effects --- Trade and Services --- Trade Effect --- Trade Negotiations --- Trade Policy --- Volume Of Trade --- Welfare Gains --- World Trade --- World Trade Organization

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August 1999 - The results of a modified gravity model suggest that the new wave of regionalism has not boosted intra-bloc trading significantly. Trade liberalization in Latin America did have a positive impact on the imports of bloc members, although MERCOSUR's exports did poorly over the mid-1990s. Soloaga and Winters apply a gravity model to data on annual nonfuel imports for 58 countries for the years 1980-96, to quantify the effects on trade of recently created or revamped preferential trade agreements (PTAs). They modify the usual gravity equation to identify the separate effects of PTAs on intra-bloc trade, members' total imports, and members' total exports. They also formally test the significance of changes in the estimated coefficients before and after the blocs' formation. Their estimates give no indication that the new wave of regionalism boosted intra-bloc trade significantly. They found convincing evidence of trade diversion only for the European Union and the European Free Trade Association. For the same blocs they also observed export diversion, which would be consistent with these blocs' imposing a welfare cost on the rest of the world. Trade liberalization efforts in Latin America have had a positive impact on the imports of bloc members (Andean Group, Central American Common Market, Latin American Integration Association, and MERCOSUR). Increasing propensities to export generally accompanied increasing propensities to import, suggesting that general trade liberalization had a strong effect. The exception was MERCOSUR, for which import and export propensities displayed opposite movements, with exports performing worse than expected over the mid-1990s. Although MERCOSUR members have undoubtedly liberalized since the mid-1980s, these results suggest that their trade performance has been influenced more by competitiveness than by trade policy. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the effects of regional integration. The authors may be contacted at isoloaga@worldbank.org or leavesa.winters@sussex.ac.uk.

Andean Pact --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Policy --- Economic Theory and Research --- Exports --- Extra-Bloc Trade --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Free Trade Area --- Geographical Patterns Of Trade --- Gravity Equation --- Gravity Model --- Gravity Models --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Patterns Of Trade --- Preferential Trade --- Preferential Trade Agreements --- Preferential Trade Area --- Public Sector Development --- Regionalism --- Trade --- Trade Diversion --- Trade Effects --- Trade Flows --- Trade Law --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy