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China's rapid overall growth since 1978 masks significant differences in relative economic performance across its provinces. This paper finds that, while per capita income of poor provinces are catching up with those in the rich, the relative income distribution appears to be stratifying into a bimodal distribution--the costal provinces grativating toward one mode, and the remaining provinces toward the other--with economic structure and policies playing important roles in the growth dynamics.

Macroeconomics --- Single Equation Models --- Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models --- Spatial Models --- Treatment Effect Models --- Technological Change: Government Policy --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: Other --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Personal income --- Income distribution --- Income inequality --- National accounts --- Income --- China, People's Republic of

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Learning from the past is critical for shaping the future, especially when it comes to economic policymaking. Building upon the current methods in the application of Reinforcement Learning (RL) to the large language models (LLMs), this paper introduces Reinforcement Learning from Experience Feedback (RLXF), a procedure that tunes LLMs based on lessons from past experiences. RLXF integrates historical experiences into LLM training in two key ways - by training reward models on historical data, and by using that knowledge to fine-tune the LLMs. As a case study, we applied RLXF to tune an LLM using the IMF's MONA database to generate historically-grounded policy suggestions. The results demonstrate RLXF's potential to equip generative AI with a nuanced perspective informed by previous experiences. Overall, it seems RLXF could enable more informed applications of LLMs for economic policy, but this approach is not without the potential risks and limitations of relying heavily on historical data, as it may perpetuate biases and outdated assumptions.

Artificial intelligence --- Budget Systems --- Budget --- Budgeting & financial management --- Budgeting --- Computer Programs: Other --- Currency crises --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Diffusion Processes --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic classification --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Informal sector --- Intelligence (AI) & Semantics --- Macroeconomics --- National Budget --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Technological Change: Government Policy --- Technology

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This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly for talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers—by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent—could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42 percent. We concludeby discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.

United States --- Emigration and immigration. --- United States. --- Macroeconomics. --- Production and Operations Management. --- Environmental Policy. --- Emigration and Immigration. --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences. --- Diffusion Processes. --- Technological Change: Government Policy. --- International Migration. --- Geographic Labor Mobility. --- Immigrant Workers. --- Macroeconomics: Production. --- Education: General. --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution. --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy. --- Migration, immigration & emigration. --- Education. --- Environmental policy & protocols. --- Migration. --- Productivity. --- Income. --- Climate policy. --- Population and demographics. --- Production. --- National accounts. --- Industrial productivity. --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Climate policy --- Diffusion Processes --- Education --- Education: General --- Emigration and Immigration --- Emigration and immigration --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Environmental Policy --- Environmental policy --- Geographic Labor Mobility --- Immigrant Workers --- Income --- Industrial productivity --- International Migration --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Migration --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- National accounts --- Population and demographics --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Productivity --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Technological Change: Government Policy

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Digitalization in Asia is pervasive, unique, and growing. It stands out by its sheer scale, with internet users far exceeding numbers in other regions. This facilitates e-commerce in markets that are large by international standards, supported by innovative payment systems and featuring major corporate players, including a number of large, home-grown, highly digitalized businesses (tech giants) that rival US multinational enterprises (MNEs) in size. Opportunity for future growth exists, as a significant population share remains unconnected.

Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Corporate & business tax --- Corporate Taxation --- Corporations --- Diffusion Processes --- Income tax --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Information technology industries --- Information technology --- International Economics --- International institutions --- Law and legislation --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Political economy --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Public Policy --- Revenue administration --- Revenue --- Spendings tax --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Taxes --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Technological Change: Government Policy --- Technology --- India

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The need for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to diversify their economies is more urgent than ever. However, despite its established economic benefits, several challenges have precluded diversification in SSA. Against this backdrop, interesting initiatives to further adopt digital technologies, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggest that digitalization is a promising avenue to overcome barriers to diversification. Fast-paced advances in the diffusion of digital technologies and knowledge have the potential to transform SSA economies through several channels. By connecting people and facilitating the rapid diffusion of information, digitalization also promises to reshape the industrial structure of activities in new and unprecedented ways. Therefore, digitalization has the potential to promote diversification and growth in SSA by acting both as an enabler and driver of economic activities, helping support resilience. Yet, while the empirical literature on SSA suggests that digitalization can provide new opportunities for growth, employment, productivity, and inclusion, the impact on diversification has not been studied. This paper aims to fill this important gap in the literature. It also aims to strengthen IMF engagement with SSA policy makers by providing a conceptual policy framework, encompassing both horizontal and sectoral policies, on how to leverage digitalization to support diversification and boost resilience in a post-COVID world.

Diffusion Processes --- Digital economy --- Digital or internet economics --- Digitalization --- Economic Development: General --- Economic growth --- Economic sectors --- Electronic commerce --- General issues --- Government and the Monetary System --- Human Capital --- Human capital --- Income economics --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Information technology industries --- Information technology --- Innovation --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Labor Productivity --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary Systems --- Occupational Choice --- Payment Systems --- Regimes --- Research and Development --- Skills --- Standards --- Technological Change --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Technological Change: Government Policy --- Technology