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This paper studies the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the extensive and intensive margins of trade for a sample of 65 exporters at the Harmonized System six-digit level. The paper measures trade policy uncertainty as the gap between binding tariff commitments under trade agreements (multilateral and regional agreements) and applied tariffs-what is also known as tariffs' water. The results show that trade policy uncertainty is an important barrier to exports and its effects are heterogeneous. On average and at the current level of tariff commitments, the paper estimates that the elimination of water, without any change of the applied tariff, would increase the probability of exporting by 6 percent and trade volumes by 1.3 percent. The negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on export participation is higher for countries with low-quality institutions and in the presence of global value chains. For a sample of new acceding countries, the analysis finds that removing water would boost the probability of trading by 50 percent and exports by 16 percent. The paper also estimates that the current system of commitments boosts trade by between 10 and 30 percent, compared with a world where at any moment tariffs could be raised to an arbitrarily high level.

Binding Overhang --- International Economics and Trade --- Non-Tariff Barriers --- Policy Space --- Tariffs --- Trade and Multilateral Issues --- Trade Liberalization --- World Trade Organization

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There is substantial evidence that with the progressive global decline in tariffs over several decades, trade costs are a more significant barrier to trade than tariffs, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper decomposes trade costs into three categories: costs that can be lowered by trade facilitation, nontariff barriers, and the costs of business services. The paper develops a 10-region, 18-sector, global trade model that includes Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda of the East African Customs Union. The analysis finds that deep integration in the East African Customs Union that lowers these trade costs results in significant gains for the four countries, especially from improved trade facilitation. Extending the lowering of nontariff barriers and services liberalization multilaterally would increase the gains between two and seven times, depending on the country. that the analysis also finds that reducing nondiscriminatory services barriers in Kenya and Tanzania would increase welfare even more than multilateral reduction of discriminatory services barriers. The paper is innovative both conceptually and empirically. It contains foreign direct investment in services and is the first paper to numerically assess liberalization of barriers against domestic and multinational service providers in a multi-sector, multi-region, applied general equilibrium model. The paper uses new databases of the ad valorem equivalents of barriers in services and the time in trade costs. Both databases are shown to be important to the results.

Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Non-Tariff Barriers --- Private Sector Development --- Regional Integration --- Services Liberalization --- Trade Costs --- Trade Facilitation --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy --- Tripartite Free Trade

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Standards and technical regulations exist to protect consumer safety or to achieve other goals, such as ensuring the interoperability of telecommunications systems, for example. Standards and technical regulations can, however, raise substantially both start-up and production costs for firms. Maskus, Otsuki, and Wilson develop econometric models to provide the first estimates of the incremental production costs for firms in developing nations in conforming to standards imposed by major importing countries. They use firm-level data generated from 16 developing countries in the World Bank Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Survey Database. Their findings indicate that standards do increase short-run production costs by requiring additional inputs of labor and capital. A 1 percent increase in investment to meet compliance costs in importing countries raises variable production costs by between 0.06 and 0.13 percent, a statistically significant increase. The authors also find that the fixed costs of compliance are nontrivial-approximately USD 425,000 per firm, or about 4.7 percent of value added on average. The results may be interpreted as one indication of the extent to which standards and technical regulations might constitute barriers to trade. While the relative impact on costs of compliance is relatively small, these costs can be decisive factors driving export success for companies. In this context, there is scope for considering that the costs associated with more limited exports to countries with import regulations may not conform to World Trade Organization rules encouraging harmonization of regulations to international standards, for example. Policy solutions then might be sought by identifying the extent to which subsidies or public support programs are needed to offset the cost disadvantage that arises from nonharmonized technical regulations.

Administrative and Regulatory Law --- Capital --- Competitiveness --- Cost Functions --- Damages --- Econometric Models --- Economic Theory and Research --- Exports --- Fixed Costs --- Inputs --- Investment --- Labor Policies --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets --- Production --- Production Costs --- Public Sector Regulation --- Social Protections and Labor --- Tariff Barriers --- Telecommunications --- Trade --- Trade Disputes --- Value --- Value Added --- World Trade Organization --- WTO

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Trade can be a key driver of growth for African countries, as it has been for those countries, particularly in East Asia, that have experienced high and sustained rates of growth. Economic partnership agreements with the European Union could be instrumental in a competitiveness framework, but to do so they would have to be designed carefully in a way that supports integration into the global economy and is consistent with national development strategies. Interim agreements have focused on reciprocal tariff removal and less restrictive rules of origin. To be fully effective, economic partnership agreements will have to address constraints to regional integration, including both tariff and non-tariff barriers; improve trade facilitation; and define appropriate most favored nation services liberalization. At the same time, African countries will need to reduce external tariff peak barriers on a most favored nation basis to ensure that when preferences for the European Union are implemented after transitional periods, they do not lead to substantial losses from trade diversion. This entails an ambitious agenda of policy reform that must be backed up by development assistance in the form of "aid for trade."

Competitiveness --- Development assistance --- Development strategies --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Export growth --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- International trade --- Law and Development --- Private Sector Development --- Productivity --- Public Sector Development --- Tariff barriers --- Trade competitiveness --- Trade diversion --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy --- Trade policy

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Evidence indicates that trade costs are a much more substantial barrier to trade than tariffs are, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper decomposes trade costs into: (i) trade facilitation, (ii) non-tariff barriers, and (iii) the costs of business services. The paper assesses the poverty and shared prosperity impacts of deep integration to reduce these three types of trade costs in: (i) the East African Customs Union-Common Market of East and Southern Africa-South African Development Community "Tripartite" Free Trade Area; (ii) within the East African Customs Union; and (iii) unilaterally by the East African Customs Union. The analysis employs an innovative, multi-region computable general equilibrium model to estimate the changes in the macroeconomic variables that impact poverty and shared prosperity. The model estimates are used in the Global Income Distribution Dynamics microsimulation model to obtain assessments of the changes in the poverty headcount and shared prosperity for each of the simulations for the six African regions or countries. The paper finds that these reforms are pro-poor. There are significant reductions in the poverty headcount and the percentage of the population living in poverty for all six of the African regions from deep integration in the Tripartite Free Trade Area or comparable unilateral reforms by the East African Customs Union. Further, the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the populations noticeably increase in all countries or regions that are engaged in the trade reforms. The reason for the poor share in prosperity is the fact that the reforms increase unskilled wages faster than the rewards of other factors of production, as the reforms tend to favor agriculture. Despite the uniform increases in income for the poorest 40 percent, there are some cases where the share of income captured by the poorest 40 percent of the population decreases. The estimated gains vary considerably across countries and reforms. Thus, countries would have an interest in negotiating for different reforms in different agreements.

CGE --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microsimulation --- Non-Tariff Barriers --- Poverty Head Count --- Private Sector Development --- Regional Integration --- Services Liberalization --- Shared Prosperity --- Trade Costs --- Trade Facilitation --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy --- Tripartite Free Trade