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Preference erosion has become an obstacle to multilateral trade liberalization, as beneficiaries of trade preferences have an incentive to resist reductions in mostfavored- nation (MFN) tariffs. This study identifies middle-income developing countries that are vulnerable to export revenue loss from preference erosion. It concludes that the problem is heavily concentrated in a sub-set of preference beneficiaries-primarily small island economies dependent on sugar, banana, and-to a lesser extent-textile exports. Accordingly, measures to help mitigate the impact of preference erosion can be closely targeted at the countries at risk.

Tariff --- Developing countries --- Commercial policy. --- Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Economic Theory --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Trade: General --- Agriculture: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Exports --- Agricultural commodities --- Tariffs --- Export earnings --- Supply elasticity --- International trade --- Commodities --- Taxes --- Economic theory --- Farm produce --- Elasticity --- Economics --- United States

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This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Petroleum industry and trade --- Petroleum products --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Energy industries --- Oil industries --- Econometric models. --- Prices --- Refining --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Industries: Energy --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply --- Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Oil production --- Natural gas sector --- Supply elasticity --- Commodities --- Production --- Economic sectors --- Economic theory --- Gas industry --- Elasticity --- Economics --- United States

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We study the role of regional housing markets in the transmission of US monetary policy. Using a FAVAR model over 1999q1–2019q4, we find sizeable heterogeneity in the responses of US states to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Part of this regional variation is due to differences in housing supply elasticities, household debt overhang, and housing wealth (volatility). Our analysis indicates that house prices and consumption respond more in supply-inelastic states and in states with large household debt imbalances, where negative housing wealth effects bite more strongly and borrowing constraints become more binding. Moreover, financial stability risks increase sharply in these areas as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge, worsening banks’ balance sheets. Finally, monetary policy may have a stronger effect on housing tenure decisions in supply-inelastic states, where the homeownership rate and price-to-rent ratios decline by more. Our findings stress the importance of regional housing supply conditions in assessing the macrofinancial effects of rising interest rates.

Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Banks --- Business Fluctuations --- Consumption --- Currency crises --- Cycles --- Depository Institutions --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Economic Theory --- Economic theory --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Elasticity --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Housing prices --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Housing --- Industries: Financial Services --- Informal sector --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Monetary Policy --- Mortgages --- National accounts --- Panel Data Models --- Prices --- Property & real estate --- Real Estate --- Saving and investment --- Saving --- Spatio-temporal Models --- Supply elasticity --- Wealth

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India has pursued an active food security policy for many years, using a combination of trade policy interventions, public distribution of food staples, and assistance to farmers through minimum support prices defended by public stocks. This policy has been quite successful in stabilizing staple food prices, but at a high cost, and with potential risks of unmanageable stock accumulation. Based on a rational expectations storage model representing the Indian wheat market and its relation to the rest of the world, this paper analyzes the cost and welfare implications of this policy and unpacks the contribution of its different elements. To analyze alternative policies, social welfare is assumed to include an objective of price stabilization and optimal policies corresponding to this objective are assessed. Considering fully optimal policies under commitment as well as optimal simple rules, it is shown that adopting simple rules can achieve most of the gains from fully optimal policies, with both potentially allowing for lower stockholding levels and costs.

Accelerator --- Access to Markets --- Aggregate Demand --- Agriculture --- Arbitrage --- Barriers --- Benchmark --- Bidding --- Border Price --- Cash Flow --- Choice --- Closed Economy --- Commodity --- Commodity Price --- Communication --- Consumer Price --- Consumer Price Index --- Consumers --- Consumption --- Costs --- Criteria --- Debt Markets --- Demand --- Demand Elasticity --- Demand Function --- Development Economics --- Development Policy --- Distribution --- Domestic Market --- Domestic Price --- Econometrics --- Economic Theory --- Economic Theory & Research --- Economics Research --- Elasticity --- Emerging Markets --- Equations --- Equilibrium --- Equilibrium Values --- Exchange --- Exchange Rate --- Expectations --- Exports --- Failures --- Fair --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Floor Price --- Food Price --- Fraud --- Free Trade --- Incentives --- Income --- Incomplete Markets --- Influence --- Inputs --- Interest --- Interest Rate --- International Economics & Trade --- International Trade --- Lags --- Laissez Faire --- Laissez-Faire --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Marginal Cost --- Marginal Utility --- Market --- Market Conditions --- Market Economy --- Market Equilibrium --- Market Failures --- Market Power --- Market Price --- Marketing --- Markets --- Markets & Market Access --- Middle-Income Country --- Multipliers --- Open Economy --- Opportunity Cost --- Optimization --- Outcomes --- Output --- Price --- Price Behavior --- Price Change --- Price Elasticity --- Price Index --- Price Instability --- Price Levels --- Price Movements --- Price Policy --- Price Risk --- Price Stability --- Price Stabilization --- Price Uncertainty --- Price Volatility --- Prices --- Private Entity --- Private Sector Development --- Producer Price --- Product --- Production --- Profit Maximization --- Public Policy --- Purchasing --- Rapid Expansion --- Real Income --- Risk Aversion --- Risk Neutral --- Risk-Averse --- Risk-Neutral --- Sales --- Savings --- Security --- Share --- Stabilization Policy --- Stock --- Storage --- Subsidy --- Substitution --- Supply --- Supply Elasticity --- Surplus --- Taxes --- Theory --- Time Value of Money --- Trade --- Trade Barriers --- Trade Policies --- Trade Policy --- Trends --- Utility --- Value --- Value of Money --- Variables --- Volatility --- Welfare --- World Market --- World Trade