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Weakness in Investment Growth : Causes, Implications and Policy Responses
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the causes and implications of this slowdown and presents a menu of policy responses to improve investment growth. It reports four main results. First, the slowdown has been broad-based and most pronounced in the largest emerging markets and in commodity exporters. Second, it reflects a range of obstacles: weak activity, negative terms-of-trade shocks, declining foreign direct investment inflows, elevated private debt burdens, heightened political risk, and adverse spillovers from major economies. Third, by slowing capital accumulation and technological progress embedded in investment, weak post-crisis investment growth has contributed to sluggish growth of potential output in recent years. Finally, although specific policy priorities depend on country circumstances, policymakers can boost investment both directly, through public investment, and indirectly, by encouraging private investment, including foreign direct investment, and by undertaking measures to improve overall growth prospects and the business climate.


Book
Compliance with IMF Program Indicators and Growth in Transition Economies
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ISBN: 146233590X 1452749272 1281373583 9786613779540 1451893809 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper makes use of the IMF’s Database for Monitoring Fund Arrangements (MONA) to investigate whether transition countries that more successfully implement the conditionality of IMF programs tend to show a better performance on recovery and growth. It is not possible to determine a clear-cut relationship between the index that determines the level of compliance with structural benchmarks in IMF programs and growth. However, the paper finds a definite, positive relationship between the index of compliance with performance criteria and growth, even after controlling for the extent of stabilization of the transition countries.


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Solomon Islands : Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility; Press Release; and Staff Report.
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ISBN: 1513500848 1513500899 1513544853 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses Solomon Islands’ Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). All end-December 2014 performance criteria (PCs), indicative targets (ITs) for March 2015, and end-June 2015 PCs have been met by a considerable margin, with the exception of the ITs on government-funded recurrent spending on health and education, which have been consistently missed since 2014 albeit by a small margin. September 2015 available data indicate that ITs on international reserves, net domestic assets at the Central Bank, and net credit to the government have been comfortably met. The authorities remain committed to macroeconomic stability and completion of the reviews.


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Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office Report on Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs.
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ISBN: 1513593846 Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office Report on Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs.


Book
New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 145186504X 1462360890 1451909578 9786613829191 1452794537 1283516748 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal adjustment and real GDP growth in a panel of 26 transition economies during 1992-2001. Unlike most previous studies using cross-country regressions, the paper finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between fiscal adjustment and growth that is robust to different model specifications and estimation methods. The paper also presents country experiences to delve deeper into the mechanisms that may underlie this statistical relationship.


Book
Pace and Sequencing of Economic Policies
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ISBN: 1462334695 1452724946 1282448102 9786613821294 1451906730 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the design of economic policies using factor analysis, which has several advantages; in particular, it limits the problems that typically arise from the high correlation of economic policy indicators, it helps in identifying clusters of economic policy, and it facilitates the derivation of policy design indicators that represent the pace and sequence of economic policies. Econometric results show that the introduction of sound economic policies has both level effects and growth effects, suggesting it is necessary to exercise caution when assessing a country's growth prospects immediately following the introduction of new policies. In addition, the results suggest that growth strengthens when a country implements policies that outpace either a notional measure of "world average policies" or a country's own policy trend, and highlight the critical role played by macroeconomic vis-à-vis microeconomic policies. The latter also reveals the existence of sequencing factors in policy implementation; for example, trade liberalization and financial liberalization positively affect growth, but more so if economic stability and fiscal sustainability have been secured.


Book
Israeli Inflation From An International Perspective
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462360955 1452718911 1282109898 1451904304 9786613802781 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Israel’s post-stabilization experience of moderate inflation and eventual disinflation is compared with experiences in other countries. Lessons that emerge from an examination of international experiences indicate the importance of establishing early on credibility in the nominal anchor and a commitment to persevere with disinflation policies, achieving and maintaining a tight fiscal position, measures to reduce nominal rigidities, and widespread structural reform. Israel falls short on several criteria which explains why taming inflation in the post-stabilization period has been difficult. The paper concludes with a consideration of institutional arrangements that could sustain the current low inflation levels.


Book
From Inflation to Growth : Eight Years of Transition
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462310591 1451993498 1281601462 9786613782151 1451898037 Year: 1998 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper reexamines growth in transition using panel data to 1997. It suggests that output has been strongly affected by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate; that structural reform has been associated with weaker output initially, but that it stimulates higher growth thereafter; and that rapid disinflation has been associated with output losses only in the presence of pegged exchange rates.


Book
Chile's Rapid Growth in the 1990's-Good Policies, Good Luck, or Political Change?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462318592 1452716900 1282004387 9786613795687 1451902301 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Chile’s average economic growth between 1990 and 1998 was above 7 percent per year, more than double than in previous decades, and higher than in any other Latin American country in the same period. This paper assesses empirically the main hypotheses suggested in the literature about the factors underlying this rapid growth: good economic policies, good luck in the external sector, and the country’s return to a democratic system of government. The statistical and quantitative results indicate that Chile’s rapid growth during the 1990s was due to good policies and the improved political situation.


Book
Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Reforms : Evidence from Eastern Europe and Latin America
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462338658 1452715793 1283511258 9786613823700 1451913419 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper investigates the role of structural reforms -financial reforms, trade liberalization, and privatization- as determinants of FDI inflows based on newly constructed dataset on structural reforms for 19 Latin American and 25 Eastern European countries between 1989 and 2004. Our main finding is a strong empirical relationship from reforms to FDI, in particular, from financial liberalization and privatization. These results are robust to different measures of reforms, split samples, and potential endogeneity and omitted variables biases.

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