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Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the causes and implications of this slowdown and presents a menu of policy responses to improve investment growth. It reports four main results. First, the slowdown has been broad-based and most pronounced in the largest emerging markets and in commodity exporters. Second, it reflects a range of obstacles: weak activity, negative terms-of-trade shocks, declining foreign direct investment inflows, elevated private debt burdens, heightened political risk, and adverse spillovers from major economies. Third, by slowing capital accumulation and technological progress embedded in investment, weak post-crisis investment growth has contributed to sluggish growth of potential output in recent years. Finally, although specific policy priorities depend on country circumstances, policymakers can boost investment both directly, through public investment, and indirectly, by encouraging private investment, including foreign direct investment, and by undertaking measures to improve overall growth prospects and the business climate.
Developing Economies --- Emerging Markets --- Fiscal Policy --- Infrastructure Investment --- Investment Slowdown --- Monetary Policy --- Policy Space --- Structural Reforms
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This paper makes use of the IMF’s Database for Monitoring Fund Arrangements (MONA) to investigate whether transition countries that more successfully implement the conditionality of IMF programs tend to show a better performance on recovery and growth. It is not possible to determine a clear-cut relationship between the index that determines the level of compliance with structural benchmarks in IMF programs and growth. However, the paper finds a definite, positive relationship between the index of compliance with performance criteria and growth, even after controlling for the extent of stabilization of the transition countries.
Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Performance and Prospects --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Finance --- Structural reforms --- Multilateral development institutions --- Financial institutions --- Development banks --- Bulgaria
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This paper discusses Solomon Islands’ Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). All end-December 2014 performance criteria (PCs), indicative targets (ITs) for March 2015, and end-June 2015 PCs have been met by a considerable margin, with the exception of the ITs on government-funded recurrent spending on health and education, which have been consistently missed since 2014 albeit by a small margin. September 2015 available data indicate that ITs on international reserves, net domestic assets at the Central Bank, and net credit to the government have been comfortably met. The authorities remain committed to macroeconomic stability and completion of the reviews.
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Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office Report on Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs.
Monetary policy. --- Fiscal policy. --- Economics --- Fiscal multipliers --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomics --- Macrostructural analysis --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary policy --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Political Economy --- Political economy --- Structural reforms
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This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal adjustment and real GDP growth in a panel of 26 transition economies during 1992-2001. Unlike most previous studies using cross-country regressions, the paper finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between fiscal adjustment and growth that is robust to different model specifications and estimation methods. The paper also presents country experiences to delve deeper into the mechanisms that may underlie this statistical relationship.
Economic stabilization -- Developing countries. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy -- Developing countries. --- Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Economic stabilization --- Fiscal policy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal consolidation --- Government debt management --- Fiscal stance --- Structural reforms --- Debts, Public --- Russian Federation
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This paper examines the design of economic policies using factor analysis, which has several advantages; in particular, it limits the problems that typically arise from the high correlation of economic policy indicators, it helps in identifying clusters of economic policy, and it facilitates the derivation of policy design indicators that represent the pace and sequence of economic policies. Econometric results show that the introduction of sound economic policies has both level effects and growth effects, suggesting it is necessary to exercise caution when assessing a country's growth prospects immediately following the introduction of new policies. In addition, the results suggest that growth strengthens when a country implements policies that outpace either a notional measure of "world average policies" or a country's own policy trend, and highlight the critical role played by macroeconomic vis-à-vis microeconomic policies. The latter also reveals the existence of sequencing factors in policy implementation; for example, trade liberalization and financial liberalization positively affect growth, but more so if economic stability and fiscal sustainability have been secured.
Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Classification Methods --- Cluster Analysis --- Principal Components --- Factor Models --- Fiscal Policy --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Factor models --- Fiscal stabilization --- Fiscal sustainability --- Structural reforms --- Fiscal stance --- Fiscal policy --- Econometric models --- Zimbabwe
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Israel’s post-stabilization experience of moderate inflation and eventual disinflation is compared with experiences in other countries. Lessons that emerge from an examination of international experiences indicate the importance of establishing early on credibility in the nominal anchor and a commitment to persevere with disinflation policies, achieving and maintaining a tight fiscal position, measures to reduce nominal rigidities, and widespread structural reform. Israel falls short on several criteria which explains why taming inflation in the post-stabilization period has been difficult. The paper concludes with a consideration of institutional arrangements that could sustain the current low inflation levels.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary economics --- Inflation targeting --- Disinflation --- Fiscal policy --- Structural reforms --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Macrostructural analysis --- Israel
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This paper reexamines growth in transition using panel data to 1997. It suggests that output has been strongly affected by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate; that structural reform has been associated with weaker output initially, but that it stimulates higher growth thereafter; and that rapid disinflation has been associated with output losses only in the presence of pegged exchange rates.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: General --- Trade: General --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- International economics --- Disinflation --- Exports --- Export performance --- Structural reforms --- Prices --- International trade --- Macrostructural analysis --- Russian Federation
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Chile’s average economic growth between 1990 and 1998 was above 7 percent per year, more than double than in previous decades, and higher than in any other Latin American country in the same period. This paper assesses empirically the main hypotheses suggested in the literature about the factors underlying this rapid growth: good economic policies, good luck in the external sector, and the country’s return to a democratic system of government. The statistical and quantitative results indicate that Chile’s rapid growth during the 1990s was due to good policies and the improved political situation.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Productivity --- Production growth --- Structural reforms --- Terms of trade --- Production --- Macrostructural analysis --- Prices --- International trade --- Industrial productivity --- Economic theory --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Chile --- Nternational cooperation
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This paper investigates the role of structural reforms -financial reforms, trade liberalization, and privatization- as determinants of FDI inflows based on newly constructed dataset on structural reforms for 19 Latin American and 25 Eastern European countries between 1989 and 2004. Our main finding is a strong empirical relationship from reforms to FDI, in particular, from financial liberalization and privatization. These results are robust to different measures of reforms, split samples, and potential endogeneity and omitted variables biases.
Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Investments, Foreign --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions --- Privatization --- Contracting Out --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Finance --- International economics --- Foreign direct investment --- Structural reforms --- Financial sector development --- Trade liberalization --- Financial services industry --- Commercial policy --- Russian Federation
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