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This paper develops a theory of inflation inertia based on forward looking staggered price setting in the nontradable goods sector of a small open economy. Unlike current theories of sticky prices, transitions to a lower steady state inflation rate take time even if they are fully credible, and they are associated with significant output losses in nontradables There is a welfare trade-off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions. Gains exceed losses for most calibrations. The optimal steady state is the Friedman rule.

Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Sticky prices --- Real exchange rates --- Consumption --- Prices --- National accounts --- Economics --- United States

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We use cross-section and time-series techniques to analyze pricing behavior in Sierra Leone. In cross-sectional data, we find that inflation volatility and product diversification are the main factors explaining differences in the frequency of price adjustments. We show that variance in the fraction of prices subject to change is a key determinant of inflation volatility in Sierra Leone, indicating that retail prices are sensitive to economic events. We explain variations in this fraction over time with past inflation and monetary growth, which are important policy variables.

Electronic books. -- local. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Sierra Leone -- Econometric models. --- Pricing -- Sierra Leone -- Econometric models. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Inflation (Finance) --- Pricing --- Econometric models. --- Price policy --- Price policy, Industrial --- Retail pricing --- Marketing --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Consumer price indexes --- Food prices --- Inflation persistence --- Sticky prices --- Price indexes --- Sierra Leone

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We empirically revisit the crowding-in effect of government spending on private consumption based on rolling windows of U.S. data. Results show that in earlier samples government spending is increasingly crowding in private consumption; however, this relation is reverted in the latest periods. We propose a model embedding non-separable public and private consumption in the utility function and rule-of-thumb consumers to assess the sources of non-monotonic changes in the transmission of the shock. The iterative full information estimation of the model reveals that changes in the co-movement between private and public spending is primarily driven by the fluctuations in the elasticity of substitution between private and public consumption, the share of financially constrained consumers, and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.

Monetary policy. --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Monetary policy --- E-books --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Expenditure --- Private consumption --- Consumption --- Real wages --- Sticky prices --- National accounts --- Prices --- Expenditures, Public --- Economics --- Wages --- United States --- Income economics

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This paper examines the comovement of prices with the cyclical component of output. It argues that determining the cyclical behavior of prices by applying the same stationarity-inducing transformation to the levels of both output and prices, and examining the correlations of the resulting series, can be misleading. A more appropriate procedure is to examine the correlations between the rate of inflation and the level of the cyclical component of output. In post-war U.S. data the correlations between similarly transformed price and output data are consistently and often strongly negative, as reported recently by a number of authors as evidence of countercyclical price behavior. The rate of inflation, however, is consistently and usually strongly positively correlated with various measures of the cyclical component of output.

Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Economic growth --- Supply shocks --- Business cycles --- Sticky prices --- Economic theory --- Supply and demand --- United States

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This Mundell Fleming lecture at the International Monetary Fund’s 2001 annual research conference marks the 25th anniversary of Rudiger Dornbusch’s masterpiece, “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” a seminal contribution to both policy and research in the field of international finance. This essay provides a simple overview of the model as well as some empirics, not only on exchange rates but on measures of the paper’s influence. Last, but not least, I offer some personal reflections on how Dornbusch conveyed the ideas in his “overshooting model” to inspire a generation of students.

Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Economic Theory --- Macroeconomics --- Demand for Money --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Expectations --- Speculations --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Demand for money --- Monetary base --- Rational expectations --- Money --- Sticky prices --- Prices --- Money supply --- Economic theory --- United States