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The recent round of debt relief has restored debt sustainability in many low-income countries (LICs). This, along with a continued search for yield and desire for portfolio diversification by investors, has increased the range of viable financing options, including international bonds, for many emerging market (EM) economies and LICs. This paper presents some of the advantages and disadvantages of international debut bonds, within a debt sustainability framework. It outlines key preconditions and discusses strategic considerations that countries need to take into account when contemplating bond issuance in international markets for the first time. In this context, the paper also discusses some typical pitfalls in accessing international capital markets, including excessive issue size relative to the intended use of bond proceeds, issuance of bullet bonds, and inadequate preparation for accessing the markets.

Bonds --- Risk management --- Debts, Public --- Bond issues --- Debentures --- Insurance --- Management --- Negotiable instruments --- Securities --- Stocks --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Public Finance --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- International bonds --- Government debt management --- International capital markets --- Sovereign bonds --- Capital market --- Egypt, Arab Republic of

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The paper presents a measure of monetary impulse that is intended to reflect the medium-term inflationary implications of a nation’s current monetary policy. The measure consists of the growth rate of the monetary base, adjusted for reserve requirement changes and augmented by an implicit forecast of future growth rates of base velocity. Time series plots of the impulse measure for the G-7 countries are presented, and are compared with plots of inflation and of two alternative monetary indicators—the yield curve slope and the growth rate of a broad monetary aggregate. The impulse measure serves well as a medium-term indicator of future inflation, and on balance matches or outperforms the alternative indicators.

Inflation --- Investments: Bonds --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Investment & securities --- Monetary aggregates --- Monetary base --- Sovereign bonds --- Bond yields --- Money --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- Money supply --- Bonds --- Germany

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Crises on external sovereign debt are typically defined as defaults. Such a definition accurately captures debt-servicing difficulties in the 1980s, a period of numerous defaults on bank loans. However, defining defaults as debt crises is problematic for the 1990s, when sovereign bond markets emerged. In contrast to the 1980s, the 1990s are characterized by significant foreign debt-servicing difficulties but fewer sovereign defaults. In order to capture this evolution of debt markets, we define debt crises as events occurring when either a country defaults or its bond spreads are above a critical threshold. We find that our definition outperforms the default-based definition in capturing debt-servicing difficulties and, consequently, in fitting the post-1994 period. In particular, liquidity indicators are significant in explaining our definition of debt crises, while they do not play any role in explaining defaults after 1994.

Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Bonds --- Financial Crises --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- International economics --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Financial crises --- Debt default --- Yield curve --- Securities markets --- Sovereign bonds --- Debts, External --- Interest rates --- Capital market --- Bonds --- United States

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This paper reviews recent experience with both sovereign and private bond restructurings. It also summarizes the literature on private bond restructurings and describes the “typical” process for a voluntary exchange of new bonds for existing obligations. From this information some conclusions are drawn as to the possibility of concluding voluntary restructuring agreements for sovereign bonds within relatively short periods of time.

Asset and liability management --- Bankruptcy --- Bonds --- Common stocks --- Corporate bonds --- Debt Management --- Debt restructuring --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Financial Risk Management --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Institutional Investors --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Bonds --- Investments: Stocks --- Liquidation --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Pension Funds --- Sovereign bonds --- Sovereign Debt --- Stocks --- United States

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This paper presents evidence on the relative importance of alternative contagion channels during the Thai, Russian, and Brazilian crises. Results show that when crises are measured by changes in sovereign bond spreads, financial competition seems to explain almost all contagion episodes. However, when crises are measured by stock market returns, trade links and neighborhood effects appear to be relevant contagion channels during the Thai and Brazilian crises, while financial competition remains the only relevant channel in the case of the Russian crisis.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- International Finance: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Financial Markets --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Competition --- Stock markets --- Yield curve --- Currency markets --- Sovereign bonds --- Financial markets --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Stock exchanges --- Interest rates --- Foreign exchange market --- Bonds --- Thailand