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This paper examines financial market comovements across European transition economies and compares their experience to that of their regions. Correlations in monthly indices of exchange market pressures can partly be explained by direct trade linkages, but not by measures of other fundamentals. Higher-frequency data during three crisis periods reveals the presence of structural breaks in the relationship between exchange-, but not stock markets. While the reaction of markets during the Asian and Czech crises is muted, the pattern of high-frequency spillovers during the Russian crisis looks very similar to that observed in other regions during turbulent times.
Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: Stocks --- International Finance: General --- International Financial Markets --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Investment & securities --- Stock markets --- Currency markets --- Stocks --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Stock exchanges --- Foreign exchange market --- Russian Federation
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Several transition countries have experienced strong real exchange rate appreciations. This paper tests the hypothesis that these appreciations reflect underlying productivity gains in the tradable sector. Using panel data over the period 1993-98, the results show clear evidence of productivity-driven exchange rate movements in the central and eastern European and Baltic countries. Transition countries, particularly the EU accession countries that have begun to catch up, can expect to experience further productivity-driven real exchange rate appreciations. Evidence from a large cross-section of non-transition countries indicates that catching up by one percent will be associated with a 0.4 percent real appreciation.
Foreign Exchange --- Production and Operations Management --- International Finance: General --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- International Financial Markets --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Real exchange rates --- Productivity --- Real effective exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Industrial productivity --- Production --- Russian Federation
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This paper examines the household demand for narrow money in Poland during the 1980s. At that time, there were shortages, but informal trade in both goods and foreign exchange was common, and holdings of foreign currency were substantial. Household money demand in this environment is first examined at the theoretical level: a representative household’s holding of domestic and foreign money is analyzed in a cash-in-advance model in which domestic currency is needed to purchase goods in the official shops while either domestic or foreign currency can be used in the black market. This model gives rise to a formulation of money demand which is then estimated using household-level data from 1979 to 1988.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Economics: General --- Demand for Money --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Economics of specific sectors --- Demand for money --- Market exchange rates --- Informal economy --- Consumption --- Money --- Prices --- Economic sectors --- National accounts --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Poland, Republic of
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The reasons for the growth of interenterprise debt are analyzed. It is suggested that it results mainly from the appearance of normal trade credit in a liberalized economy, and when a monetary squeeze is part of a stabilization attempt that is not credible. In the latter case, the result can be a sharp fall in output. Non-market and market solutions to this problem are analyzed, and the advantages of the latter over the former are stressed.
Bank credit --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking --- Banks --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Central banks --- Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems --- Credit --- Currencies --- Currency issuance --- Depository Institutions --- Government and the Monetary System --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Monetary base --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Systems --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money supply --- Money --- Mortgages --- Payment Systems --- Regimes --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Standards --- Romania
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This paper takes stock of the current state of development of the financial systems in five Central European transition economies (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia) that are also leading EU accession candidates. It presents both a progress report and an assessment of remaining challenges, with a focus on the role of the financial sector in supporting macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Banking --- Finance --- Commercial banks --- Financial sector --- Financial Sector Assessment Program --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Economic sectors --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial sector stability --- Banks and banking --- Financial services industry --- Czech Republic
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The primary function of banks during economic transformation is seen to be provision of an efficient payments mechanism. The lack of banking skills, particularly in credit allocation, is seen as the major problem in stable monetary systems. This is a problem which can be expected to last many years. The solution is to limit banks to very safe assets (initially central bank liabilities). Combining such safe banks with a monetary rule would provide stable monetary systems during transition.
Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking --- Banks --- Central banks --- Commercial banks --- Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems --- Currencies --- Depository Institutions --- Financial institutions --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Government and the Monetary System --- International finance --- International reserves --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Monetary base --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Systems --- Monetary systems --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money supply --- Money --- Mortgages --- Payment Systems --- Regimes --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Standards --- Russian Federation
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This paper reviews recent banking reform efforts in the lower Mekong countries (LMCs), comprising Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Vietnam. Linked by close economic and cultural ties, the three LMCs face the dual challenge of economic development and transition to market-based economies. Two-tier banking systems were formally introduced in the late 1980s. However, state-owned banks with weak balance sheets continue to dominate the banking systems of Vietnam and Lao P.D.R. Cambodia's main challenge is to reconstruct a banking system after decades of civil strife. Based on progress made and brief cross-country comparisons, the paper identifies key challenges and options for further reform.
Banks and Banking --- Industries: Financial Services --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banking --- Finance --- Financial services law & regulation --- Monetary economics --- Commercial banks --- Nonperforming loans --- Foreign banks --- Loan classification --- Financial institutions --- Credit --- Money --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Banks and banking --- Loans --- Banks and banking, Foreign --- State supervision --- Lao People's Democratic Republic
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This paper analyzes the evolution of monetary policy in Russia, focusing on the period January 1992–December 1995. Special attention is given to the role of monetary policy instruments. Initially, policy was completely dominated by flows of credit from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) to the budget, to enterprises, and to other republics in the ruble area. Over time these flows have been reduced and indirect monetary instruments have become key elements of monetary policy implementation.
Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: Europe: 1913 --- -Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Comparative Studies of Particular Economies --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Policy --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Correspondent banking --- Credit --- Reserve requirements --- Bank credit --- Financial services --- Money --- Monetary policy --- Commercial banks --- Financial institutions --- Correspondent banks --- Banks and banking --- Russian Federation
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There is ample empirical evidence for developed economies that asset prices contain information about future economic developments. But is this also the case in transition economies? Using a panel of monthly data for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, and Slovenia for the period 1994-1999 it is shown that historical values for interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices signal future movements in real economic activity. This result has significant implications for policymakers, and a composite leading indicator based on the three asset prices is presented, which contains information about the future development of economic activity.
Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- International Finance: General --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- International Financial Markets --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic growth --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Industrial production --- Asset prices --- Cyclical indicators --- Stocks --- Financial sector development --- Production --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- Stock markets --- Financial markets --- Industries --- Business cycles --- Financial services industry --- Stock exchanges --- Hungary
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Like most transition economies, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Mongolia suffered severe banking crises, which had to be resolved before growth could resume. The macroeconomic and institutional failings that led to these crises are described, and parallels are drawn with the causes of banking crises in industrial and developing countries. Resolving the crises proved technically and politically difficult, and setbacks occurred. Successful resolution required the implementation of a comprehensive and decisive strategy, involving thorough-going bank restructuring, heavy fiscal costs, and institutional and legal reforms.
Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Political Economy --- Property Rights --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Financial Crises --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banking --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Commercial banks --- Deposit insurance --- Banking crises --- Monetary base --- Financial institutions --- Financial crises --- Loans --- Money --- Banks and banking --- Crisis management --- Money supply --- Bulgaria
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