Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Low and highly volatile growth define Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence that growth volatility is associated to long term economic performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests that volatility is not important for economic and social progress. In this paper we use a variant of the method developed by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to identify both growth acceleration and deceleration episodes in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors find that Africa has had numerous growth acceleration episodes in the last 30 years, but also nearly a comparable number of growth collapses, offsetting most of the benefits of growth. Had Africa avoided its growth collapses, it would have grown 1.7 percent a year instead of 0.7 percent, and its GDP per capita would have been more than 30 percent higher in 2005. The authors also find that growth accelerations and decelerations have an asymmetric impact on human development outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that it is easier to identify the likely institutional and policy origins of growth decelerations than of growth accelerations.

Country Data --- Economic Conditions --- Economic Conditions and Volatility --- Economic Growth --- Economic Performance --- Governance --- Governance Indicators --- Growth Performance --- Growth Rate --- Growth Rates --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Human Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Nutrition --- Per Capita Income --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Public Policy --- Social Outcomes

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Transition literature has emphasized stabilization and enterprise restructuring. Both cross-country analyses and country-specific studies have tended to focus on fiscal stabilization and its indicators, highlighting the importance of quantitative fiscal adjustment to stabilization outcomes. Less attention has been paid to the qualitative dimensions of fiscal adjustment in transition. Alam and Sundberg take stock of the extent to which fiscal adjustment has occurred during the first decade of transition in both qualitative and quantitative dimensions. They define quality as the extent to which: (1) pro-growth expenditure essential for creating future economic and social assets are maintained; (2) pro-poor expenditure, such as poverty-targeted transfers, necessary to ensure income for the poor and vulnerable are adequately provided; and (3) fiscal risks, impinging on both expenditure and revenue, are managed through transition. The authors conclude that while the quantitative magnitude of the fiscal adjustment was dramatic, the quality of this adjustment has compromised the social and economic objectives of transition, particularly in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). They draw four main conclusions: Investments in public services fell in both absolute and relative terms; Reduced spending on government transfers contributed to a sharp increase in income inequality in the CIS; Fiscal risks increased during the transition; Initial conditions allowed Central European and Baltic countries to maintain higher expenditures, which may have contributed to their faster economic recovery and political support for the reforms. The authors argue that the challenge today for fiscal policy in these countries is to facilitate the transition-particularly in reallocating resources from large state-owned enterprises to new small and medium-size firms, and providing priority public services and targeted transfers to assist those adversely affected by transition and reverse the deterioration in social outcomes. The interplay between fiscal policies and institutional arrangements is increasingly important as transition economies embark on their second decade of reforms. In particular, incentives embedded in the institutional arrangements for fiscal management needs to be strengthened so that policies, resources, and outcomes can be better aligned, and the fiscal adjustment is consistent with qualitative considerations. This paper-a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand economic transition in former centrally planned economies. The authors may be contacted at aalam@worldbank.org or msundberg@worldbank.org.

Banks and Banking Reform --- Debt Markets --- Economic Recovery --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Fiscal Adjustment --- Fiscal Imbalances --- Fiscal Management --- Fiscal Policies --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal Risks --- Fiscal Stabilization --- Fiscal Transition --- Incentives --- Macroeconomic Stabilization --- Outcomes --- Public Enterprises --- Public Sector Economics and Finance --- Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management --- Public Services --- Revenues --- Social Outcomes --- Structural Reform --- Tax Systems --- Transition Economies