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Been synonymous with development. However, the trend of premature deindustrialization and the spread of automation technologies associated with Industry 4.0 has raised concerns that the development model based on export-led manufacturing seen in East Asia will be harder for hitherto less industrialized countries to replicate in the future. Can services-led development be an alternative? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the features of manufacturing that were considered uniquely conducive for productivity growth - such as international trade, scale economies, inter-sectoral linkages, and innovation - are increasingly shared by the services sector. But services are not monolithic. The twin gains of productivity growth and large-scale job creation for relatively low-skilled workers are less likely to come together in any given services subsector. The promise of services-led development in the future will be strengthened to the extent that technological change reduces the trade-off between productivity and jobs, and growth opportunities in services with potential for high productivity do not depend on a manufacturing base. Considering technological change and linkages between sectors while differentiating across types of services, this book assesses the scope of a services-driven development model and policy directions that maximize its potential--
Digital Technology --- Economic Development --- Economic Growth --- Industrialization --- Jobs --- Manufacturing Sector --- Productivity --- Services Sector --- Servicification --- Structural change --- Structural transformation
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Convergence and spillovers across countries and within countries are old, but recurrent policy concerns, and India is no exception to this rule. This paper examines convergence and spillovers across Indian states using non-stationary panel data techniques. Results on convergence among Indian states are generally found to be similar, but more nuanced, than previous studies. Generally speaking, there is evidence of divergence over the entire sample period, convergence during sub-periods corresponding to structural breaks, and club convergence. There is strong evidence of club convergence among the high- and low-income states; the evidence for middle-income states is mixed. Dynamic spillover effects among states are small.
Infrastructure --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Service --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Externalities --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Personal income --- Spillovers --- Private investment --- Services sector --- Income --- Saving and investment --- International finance --- Service industries --- India
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"The 1970s are of particular relevance for understanding the socio-economic changes still shaping Western societies today. The collapse of traditional manufacturing industries like coal and steel, shipbuilding, and printing, as well as the rise of the service sector, contributed to a notable sense of decline and radical transformation. Building on the seminal work of Lutz Raphael and Anselm Doering-Manteuffel, Nach dem Boom, which identified a "social transformation of revolutionary quality" that ushered in "digital financial capitalism," this volume features a series of essays that reconsider the idea of a structural break in the 1970s. Contributors draw on case studies from France, the Netherlands, the UK, the US, and Germany to examine the validity of the "after the boom" hypothesis. Since the Boom attempts to bridge the gap between the English and highly productive German debates on the 1970s."--
1900-2099 --- Western countries --- Economic conditions --- Social conditions --- 1970s. --- Amway. --- Germany. --- Nach dem Boom. --- Western Europe. --- after the boom. --- capitalism. --- crisis. --- deindustrialisation. --- industrial society. --- labour history. --- services sector. --- socio-economic rupture. --- unions.
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We examine the extent to which declining manufacturing employment may have contributed to increasing inequality in advanced economies. This contribution is typically small, except in the United States. We explore two possible explanations: the high initial manufacturing wage premium and the high level of income inequality. The manufacturing wage premium declined between the 1980s and the 2000s in the United States, but it does not explain the contemporaneous rise in inequality. Instead, high income inequality played a large role. This is because manufacturing job loss typically implies a move to the service sector, for which the worker is not skilled at first and accepts a low-skill wage. On average, the associated wage cut increases with the overall level of income inequality in the country, conditional on moving down in the wage distribution. Based on a stylized scenario, we calculate that the movement of workers to low-skill service sector jobs can account for about a quarter of the increase in inequality between the 1980s and the 2000s in the United States. Had the U.S. income distribution been more equal, only about one tenth of the actual increase in inequality could have been attributed to the loss of manufacturing jobs, according to our simulations.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Industries: Service --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Manufacturing industries --- Labour --- income economics --- Income inequality --- Manufacturing --- Wages --- Services sector --- Personal income --- National accounts --- Economic sectors --- Income distribution --- Service industries --- Income --- United States
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Using a newly constructed dataset on trade in services for 192 countries from 1970 to 2014, this paper shows that services currently constitute one-fourth of world trade and an increasingly important component of global production. A detailed analysis of patterns and stylized facts reveals that exports of services are not only gaining strong momentum and catching up with exports of goods in many countries, but they could also trigger a new wave of trade globalization. Research applications of the trade in service dataset on structural transformation, resilience, labor reallocation, and income distribution are outlined.
Service industries. --- Free trade. --- Free trade and protection --- Trade, Free --- Trade liberalization --- International trade --- Industries --- Service industries --- Free trade --- E-books --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Service --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Trade: General --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- International economics --- Service exports --- Exports --- Trade in services --- Export performance --- Services sector --- Economic sectors --- Balance of trade --- China, People's Republic of
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In this paper, we assess whether recent economic developments in Russia are symptomatic of Dutch Disease. We first provide a brief review of the literature on Dutch Disease and the natural resource curse. We then discuss the symptoms of Dutch Disease, which include (1) real exchange rate appreciation; (2) slower manufacturing growth; (3) faster service sector growth; and (4) higher overall wages. We test these predictions for Russia while carefully controlling for other factors that could have led to similar symptoms. We conclude that, while Russia has all of the symptoms, the diagnosis of Dutch Disease remains to be confirmed.
Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Industries: Service --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Resource Booms --- Manufacturing industries --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Oil prices --- Manufacturing --- Real exchange rates --- Services sector --- Dutch disease --- Service industries --- Economic forecasting --- Russian Federation --- Foreign exchange rates --- Economic development
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This paper analyzes common economic patterns across countries and economic sectors in Latin America, East Asia and Europe for the period 1970–94 by means of an error-components model that decomposes real value added growth in each country into common international effects, sector-specific effects and country-specific effects. We find significant comovements in the European and East Asian samples. In the Latin American sample, however, we find country-specific components to be more important than common patterns. These results are robust to different sub-sample time spans and different sub-sample country groups.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Agribusiness --- Industries: Service --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Agriculture: General --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Industrial Organization: General --- Agricultural economics --- International economics --- Agricultural sector --- Services sector --- Production growth --- Monetary unions --- Industrial sector --- Economic sectors --- Production --- Economic integration --- Agricultural industries --- Service industries --- Economic theory --- Industries --- Brazil
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Ensuring stable growth in the postcrisis world economy will require a rebalancing of economic activity in several countries. In Asia’s export-dependent economies, this entails relying more on private domestic demand as a driver of growth. While some countries need to raise consumption, several need to raise investment or reorient it from tradable to nontradable sectors. These changes in investment could be facilitated by financial reforms that enhance domestically oriented firms’ access to credit, stronger incentives for corporate restructuring, policies to bolster the business climate and reduce uncertainty, and by improvements in infrastructure that raise the returns to private investment.
Investments --- Economic development --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Infrastructure --- Investments: General --- Industries: Service --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Macroeconomics --- Private investment --- Services sector --- Return on investment --- Gross fixed investment --- Saving and investment --- Service industries --- Japan
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China is poised on the brink of a transition to a service-based economy. The Japanese experience of the 1980s provides several insights about the way to manage such a transition and the downsides to avoid. In particular Japan offers useful insights on (1) the limits to an export-oriented growth strategy; (2) the role of exchange rate, macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms in rebalancing the economy toward the nontradables sector; and (3) the risks associated with financial liberalization. The similarities between the Chinese economy today and the Japanese economy of the 1980s make these insights relevant for China. However, with the benefit of analyzing the Japanese experience and, given the important differences between the two economies, China should be able to successfully rebalance its growth pattern while avoiding the downsides encountered by Japan.
Export marketing --- Economic development --- International marketing --- Overseas marketing --- Marketing --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Service --- Industries: Financial Services --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Deposit rates --- Exchange rates --- Asset prices --- Loans --- Services sector --- Interest rates --- Prices --- Service industries --- Japan
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To live up to its growth potential and secure its inclusive social model, the euro area must make better use of its available labor. In the aftermath of the crisis, boosting growth is essential to prevent unemployment from becoming a long-term problem and to facilitate the return to fiscal sustainability. Labor utilization in the euro area has been lagging considerably behind its best performing peers. While fewer hours worked may, to some extent, reflect a social choice, higher unemployment rates and lower participation rates, on the other hand, cannot easily be attributed to individual preferences. Here, policies and institutions matter more. And there is little excuse for relatively low labor productivity, a particular bane in southern Europe and an increasing challenge everywhere. Kick-starting growth requires a comprehensive approach to labor and service market reforms. Different circumstances call for different approaches across countries. Countries in southern Europe need to focus on regaining competitiveness, while some in the core should promote higher labor force participation or more open service sector markets. Improving access to the labor market should be high on the priority list everywhere—including through some harmonization of key features of the labor market, which will help deal with intra-euro area imbalances. Differences in labor taxation, unemployment benefit systems, and employment protection will need to be reduced. Improving regulation and reforming taxes and social benefits will be essential to make inroads. For the longer term, focus should be on innovation, education, and on continuing financial sector reforms.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Service --- Labor Economics Policies --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor markets --- Labor market reforms --- Structural reforms --- Services sector --- Labor policy --- Economic sectors --- Macrostructural analysis --- Labor market --- Manpower policy --- Service industries --- United States
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