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In 2011, India's economic growth has slowed to below 7 percent and the stock markets mirrored the weakening economic conditions, but recovered somewhat in early 2012. Industrial sector output growth briefly slipped into negative territory. On the demand side, fixed investment and consumption growth slowed. India's exports were growing very strongly through 2011 despite the worsening economic conditions in Europe, which continued to be India's most important export market. The balance of payments continued to be in surplus during April-September 2011, but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reserves declined by a small amount since then. The rupee nevertheless depreciated by 20 percent between August and December, before recovering somewhat in early 2012. Macroeconomic policies presented a mixed picture: the central government is likely to miss the ambitious target for fiscal consolidation it had set in the FY2011-12 budget by about one percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Slippages are due to lower-than-expected revenues and increasing outlays on subsidies, which had been given low budgetary allocations in anticipation of strong policy changes, which failed to materialize. In India, the slowdown in GDP growth witnessed over the last two quarters is likely to extend into the coming fiscal year because of the weakness in investment. In FY2011-12 and FY2012-13, GDP growth is forecast to reach around 7-7.5 percent, a significant slowdown from the 9-10 percent growth in the run-up to the global financial crisis. The slowdown is at least partly caused by structural problems (power projects facing delays due to the lack of coal and gas feedstock, mining and the telecom sectors hit by corruption scandals, unavailability of land and infrastructure).

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has moderated from 6.7 percent in FY11 to 6.3 percent in FY12 due to unfavorable external economics and internal supply constraints. Monetary policy remained accommodative for most of 2011 but gradual tightening is occurring. With the high fiscal deficit and domestic borrowing by Government, monetary policy is now bearing the brunt of macroeconomic policy adjustment. The balance of payments (BoP) is on a deteriorating track, with reserves falling to below three months of imports and export growth turning negative in March 2012. A coordinated policy response is required to ease macroeconomic pressures and improve growth prospects. Key actions include the need to create fiscal space, contain government borrowing to mitigate the risk of crowding out of credit to the private sector, better regulate the capital market, and stimulate investment and job growth in the export sector. Unlike in 2008, Bangladesh has insufficient policy space to avert the negative impact of a global slowdown through fiscal stimulus packages and monetary easing.

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The Indian economy recovered from the slowdown at the time of the global financial crisis with strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, in particular over the first half of FY2010-11. The agricultural sector bounced back strongly after the 2010 monsoon brought normal levels of rainfall, and the industrial sector registered double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters. Inflation came down to 7.5 percent in November but then accelerated again to 8.4 percent in December because of a renewed food supply shock. The current account deficit in FY2009-10 was the largest ever (in USD terms) and the monthly deficit widened further during the first half of FY2010-11, but the trend then reversed with import growth slowing and export growth accelerating in September-December 2010. With the significant inflation differential between India and its trading partners, the rupees real effective exchange rate (REER) strengthened. On the fiscal side, massive windfall revenue from wireless spectrum auctions and buoyant tax revenue are likely to be offset by two supplementary spending bills. Monetary policy tightening continued with increases in policy rates. This update also discusses several medium-term issues: the link between the real exchange rate and growth, a long-term look at education, demographics and growth, the challenges facing the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and the mid-term evaluation of the eleventh development plan. On the real exchange rate, economists have pointed out that the most successful emerging market economies have maintained an undervalued exchange rate to promote exports. In India, the real exchange rate has been broadly stable since the early 1990s, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) judges it fairly valued with respect to different measures of equilibrium. However, the growing trade deficit and a large fiscal deficit do not quite fit this picture. Discussing policies, we argue that it would be best to focus on policies that increase productivity and competitiveness.

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In his speech, President A. W. Clausen reviews the economic and debt crisis of the last five years and shares his expectations for the next five years. The World Bank will play a vital role in a successful transition from recession to sustained economic growth. The Bank's operational strategy rests on twin pillars: assisting borrowers in formulating adjustment programs, and helping mobilize external resources to sustain these programs. Heavily indebted middle-income countries need help to grow out of their debts. Poor countries in Sub-Saharan Africa need help analyzing and overcoming the constraints on their economic and social growth. Clausen submitted a resolution to establish the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). As an international community, we must undertake to reverse the depletion of our forests and the associated degradation of the land. Sustainable growth requires true development of human capital, the alleviation of poverty, and the maintenance of the environment. Improving the quality of life of all who dwell in the developing nations has more dimensions than ever before.

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South Asia emerged as the fastest growing region in the world in 2015, posting GDP growth of 7 percent. Weak oil and commodity prices, slowing capital flows and shrinking global trade contributed towards a deceleration of growth in most of the world's economies. South Asia - as a net importer of oil - was an anomaly, growing significantly on the back of higher private consumption and public investment. Higher remittances and reserve buffers throughout the region offset the fall in exports caused by the drop in global demand. The region is set to maintain real GDP growth above 7 percent over the next few years. However, the tailwinds are now fading - capital flows have declined and remittances are starting to feel the reality of low oil prices. Pakistan, while not growing as quickly as its neighbors, has continued its steady growth recovery in H1FY16. Strong growth in consumption, rising foreign exchange reserves, fast-growing workers' remittances and a lower import bill compensated for a significant fall in exports. Low oil prices generated a significant boost, driving a 9.1 percent fall in the import bill and reducing inflation significantly, in turn creating scope to reduce the policy rate. Private sector consumption, propelled by higher remittances and a loosened monetary policy, is expected to account for over half of FY16 GDP growth.

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