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This paper examines the economic and social implications of the current system of residential electricity subsidies in Pakistan, and assesses the potential to improve the system's outcomes through alternative targeting and program design. The analysis is multi-disciplinary in nature, drawing on national household survey data, electric company data on household electricity consumption, a welfare database, and a specially commissioned qualitative assessment of household and service provider attitudes and experiences. Affordability is only one of many concerns among electricity users, with reliability of supply and customer service being arguably more important. The analysis finds that targeting could be improved considerably by allocating subsidies according to proxy-means test scores using an existing national proxy-means test database. Providing a flat credit rather than a price subsidy could also alleviate certain governance concerns. The paper concludes with some guidance on how to carry out these reforms based on international experience.
Electric Utilities --- Safety Nets --- Subsidies --- Targeting --- Welfare
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Unanticipated spikes in food prices can increase malnutrition among the poor, with lasting consequences; however, livelihood strategies that include producing food for home consumption are expected to offer a measure of protection. Using anthropometric and consumption data from Indonesia collected before and after the 2007/08 food price crisis, this paper finds evidence of both effects. Based on standardized height and weight measures, the results indicate that soaring food prices had a significant and negative impact on child growth among non-farming households. A corresponding effect was undetectable for food-producing households. The results remain robust when income effects from increased commercial sales and possible attritions through migration and fostering are considered. Further, local food price changes were uncorrelated with the share of non-farming village households and the initial average child nutrition status in the village, suggesting that the observed outcomes are directly attributable to market events and livelihood strategies. Interestingly, gender differences were not detected. The findings imply that the food price crises can have negative impacts on children, potentially leading to lifelong income inequality among those affected at a vulnerable stage of life.
Child Growth --- Food Price Crisis --- Human Capital --- Safety Nets
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This paper uses household survey data collected in September-October 2009 on a nationally representative sample of 2,000 households in Bangladesh to examine the nature of shocks experienced by households over the preceding 12 months and the type of coping mechanisms that were adopted. The analysis finds that more than half the sample claimed to have faced a shock-economic, health, climatic, or asset related-over the previous year. Surprisingly, the non-poor face a larger share of these shocks compared with the poor. A closer look at this result shows that the non-poor report a significantly larger share of "asset-related" shocks, which is consistent with the fact that the poor have fewer assets to lose. Health-related shocks dominate and households appear to have coped with these shocks through savings and loans, help from friends, and depletion of assets. The results show that households, when faced with covariate shocks due to climatic reasons, are less able to cope. As would be expected, the poor are less able to cope with shocks compared with the non-poor; the poor are more likely to use coping mechanisms that could have negative welfare implications in the longer term, including the depletion of assets, reduction of essential consumption, and use of high-interest loans. Econometric analysis suggests that geographical location, socio-economic status, and access to microfinance all affect the ability to cope with shocks. Policy implications include the importance of developing safety nets that take into account the vulnerability to climate-related shocks and further developing the links between micro-finance and safety net programs.
Access to Finance --- Housing & Human Habitats --- Microfinance --- Poor --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Safety nets --- Safety Nets and Transfers --- Shocks --- Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping --- Social Protections and Labor --- Bangladesh
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Severe weather shocks recurrently hit Malawi, and they adversely affect the incomes of many farm households as well as small businesses. With climate change, the frequency of extreme weather events is expected to increase further. A clear understanding of households' vulnerability to shock-induced poverty is critical for disaster risk management and the design of scalable social safety net programs. Standard poverty measures rely on static snapshots that are suitable for quantifying structural poverty but not for assessing the vulnerability of non-poor households to fall below the poverty line when they experience shocks. This study uses a nationally representative household survey and exogenously measured weather shocks to assess households' vulnerability to poverty in Malawi. To accurately estimate the impacts of shocks on consumption and vulnerability, the study excludes any kind of assistance (aid and food or cash transfers) that households might have received after major disasters. The key findings of the study are as follows: (1) drought during the growing season decreases non-assistance consumption per capita by 5-12 percent, depending on its intensity; (2) excess rainfall at the onset of the growing season reduces food consumption by 1.8 percent, while excess rainfall later in the growing season appears to increase consumption; (3) vulnerability to poverty is generally higher than static poverty, especially compared to static poverty measured during a good weather year; and (4) in years of extreme droughts, such as 2016, recorded poverty rates are higher than vulnerability, which indicates that the magnitude of drought in 2016 was so large that the chance of falling below the poverty line as a result of an even higher magnitude shock was low. These results suggest that identifying vulnerable households is key in designing adaptive social safety net programs that can be scaled up to cover those who become eligible for such programs after experiencing shocks.
Drought --- Drought Management --- Extreme Weather --- Flood Control --- Floods --- Natural Disasters --- Rainfall --- Safety Nets and Transfers --- Services and Transfers To Poor --- Social Safety Nets --- Vulnerability --- Weather Shocks --- Welfare
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This paper uses household survey data collected in September-October 2009 on a nationally representative sample of 2,000 households in Bangladesh to examine the nature of shocks experienced by households over the preceding 12 months and the type of coping mechanisms that were adopted. The analysis finds that more than half the sample claimed to have faced a shock-economic, health, climatic, or asset related-over the previous year. Surprisingly, the non-poor face a larger share of these shocks compared with the poor. A closer look at this result shows that the non-poor report a significantly larger share of "asset-related" shocks, which is consistent with the fact that the poor have fewer assets to lose. Health-related shocks dominate and households appear to have coped with these shocks through savings and loans, help from friends, and depletion of assets. The results show that households, when faced with covariate shocks due to climatic reasons, are less able to cope. As would be expected, the poor are less able to cope with shocks compared with the non-poor; the poor are more likely to use coping mechanisms that could have negative welfare implications in the longer term, including the depletion of assets, reduction of essential consumption, and use of high-interest loans. Econometric analysis suggests that geographical location, socio-economic status, and access to microfinance all affect the ability to cope with shocks. Policy implications include the importance of developing safety nets that take into account the vulnerability to climate-related shocks and further developing the links between micro-finance and safety net programs.
Access to Finance --- Housing & Human Habitats --- Microfinance --- Poor --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Safety nets --- Safety Nets and Transfers --- Shocks --- Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping --- Social Protections and Labor --- Bangladesh
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This paper investigates the use of early warning tools as part of Ethiopia's Disaster Risk Management framework. Analyzing, in particular, the Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection tool, Livelihood Integrated Assessment and Hotspots Assessments, the paper delineates the scope and objectives of existing early warning tools, their commonalities and limitations. From a disaster risk financing and insurance perspective, the paper investigates possible enhancements in the existing early warning framework and its use that could facilitate greater timeliness of drought response. The paper argues that based on the existing early warning instruments and continued improvements to the early warning systems, it is possible to enable early action during the onset of a drought.
Industry --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Poverty reduction --- Safety nets & transfers --- Social protections and labor --- Urban development
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Adaptive social protection (ASP) helps to build the resilience of poor and vulnerable households to the impacts of large, covariate shocks, such as natural disasters, economic crises, pandemics, conflict, and forced displacement. Through the provision of transfers and services directly to these households, ASP supports their capacity to prepare for, cope with, and adapt to the shocks they face-before, during, and after these shocks occur. Over the long term, by supporting these three capacities, ASP can provide a pathway to a more resilient state for households that may otherwise lack the resources to move out of chronically vulnerable situations. Adaptive Social Protection: Building Resilience to Shocks outlines an organizing framework for the design and implementation of ASP, providing insights into the ways in which social protection systems can be made more capable of building household resilience. By way of its four building blocks-programs, information, finance, and institutional arrangements and partnerships-the framework highlights both the elements of existing social protection systems that are the cornerstones for building household resilience, as well as the additional investments that are central to enhancing their ability to generate these outcomes. In this report, the ASP framework and its building blocks have been elaborated primarily in relation to natural disasters and associated climate change. Nevertheless, many of the priorities identified within each building block are also pertinent to the design and implementation of ASP across other types of shocks, providing a foundation for a structured approach to the advancement of this rapidly evolving and complex agenda.
Adaptation --- Climate change --- Disaster --- Disaster risk finance --- Humanitarian --- Resilience --- Risk Management --- Safety nets --- Social protection --- Vulnerability
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Vulnerability and Protection of Refugees in Turkey: Findings from the Rollout of the Largest Humanitarian Cash Assistance Program in the World assesses the targeting performance and benefit level design of the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) program for refugees in Turkey. It also provides a comprehensive look at the vulnerability of ESSN eligible households using a multidimensional lens, drawing from novel representative data. The ESSN provides monthly cash transfers to help the most vulnerable refugees meet their basic needs, and complement Turkey's response to the crisis. With near 4 million refugees, Turkey hosts more refugees than any other country in the world. The program is funded by the European Union member states, and implemented nationwide in partnership with the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Services, the World Food Programme, and the Turkish Red Crescent. The study finds that the vulnerabilities of the ESSN refugee population are multiple and complex. Refugees in the ESSN program suffer from a shortage of resources today, but also resort to coping strategies that cripple their resource-generating capacity tomorrow. The ESSN targeting criteria are relatively effective in selecting the most vulnerable refugees, but exclude a share of the poor. This issue is starting to get addressed by decentralized allowances targeted with community-level information. The ESSN cash transfer value is found to be adequate to support basic needs. An untargeted design would have minimized exclusion errors, but would reach everybody with smaller transfers, insufficient to meet basic needs. Future analysis will focus on the impact of the transfers on household welfare.
Access to Education --- Debt --- Food Security --- Migration --- Poverty --- Refugees --- Social Safety Nets
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World Bank Group President David Malpass remarked that early in the pandemic, the World Bank Group set out to use aggressive financial programming and leverage to increase commitments as rapidly as possible. The World Bank group used a number of powerful financial programming and leveraging techniques toward that goal. He highlighted recent capital increases, aggressive leveraging through bond issuance by IBRD, IDA and IFC, as well as MIGA reinsurance, and private sector mobilization, the combined WBG has been able to provide support to low- and middle-income countries over the last fifteen months. This financing is based on world-class knowledge work, and deep country relationships and know-how in our country teams present on the ground around the world. The World Bank Group strongly supports leveraging donor resources to maximize commitments, respond to emergencies, and prepare for crises. The World Bank Group provides grants to countries that are most in need, including fragile and small states and are investing heavily in social safety nets and digital cash transfer programs. Data sharing by both debtors and creditors enables debt reconciliation, a key for the debt restructuring process and he called on the G20 members to share their lending data and assist in the reconciliation exercise. The Group is actively implementing the Sustainable Development Finance Policy under IDA19 and will continue it in IDA20. The Group continues to strongly and actively support the implementation of the Common Framework, working closely with partners.
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The paper provides an up-to date and selective review of the literature on how social safety nets contribute to growth. The evidence is carefully chosen to show how safety nets have the potential to overcome constraints on growth linked to market failures, and is organized into 4 distinct pathways: i) encouraging asset accumulation by changing incentives and by addressing imperfections in financial markets caused by constraints in obtaining credit, and from information asymmetries; overcoming such failures helps households to invest into their human capital or productive assets; ii) failures in insurance markets especially in low income setting; safety nets are assisting in managing risk both ex post and ex ante; iii) safety nets are overcoming failure to create assets and other local economy complementary factors to household-level investments; iv) safety nets are shown to relax political constraints on policy. Safety nets have a dual objective of directly alleviating poverty through transfers to the poor and of triggering higher growth for the poor. However, the trade-off between the dual objectives of equity and growth is not eliminated by the potential for productive safety nets; this remains critical for designing social policies.
Banks & Banking Reform --- Debt Markets --- Human capital --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Pro-poor growth --- Risk and uncertainty. --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Safety nets --- Safety Nets and Transfers --- Social protection --- Transfers
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