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This research estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1-2010:Q4 for the United States, European Union, and three other industrialized economies. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample provide evidence of three key relationships for the US and EU. Increases in domestic unemployment rates and real appreciations in bilateral exchange rates led to substantial increases in antidumping and related forms of import protection. Furthermore, economies historically imposed these bilateral import restrictions on trading partners going through their own periods of weak economic growth. Second, estimates from the pre-Great Recession model predict a major trade policy response during 2008:Q4-2010:Q4, given the realized macroeconomic shocks. New US and EU trade barriers were projected to cover up to an additional 15 percentage points of nonoil imports, well above the baseline level of 2-3 percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis. Third, re-estimating the model on data from the Great Recession period illustrates why the realized trade policy response differed from model predictions based on historical data. While exchange rate movements played an important role in limiting new import protection, the US and EU also "switched" from their historical behavior during the Great Recession and shifted new import protection toward trading partners experiencing economic growth and away from those that were contracting.

Antidumping --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Theory & Research --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- Safeguards --- Temporary trade barriers --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy --- Australia --- Canada --- South Korea --- US

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Trade policy commitments to lower import tariffs and to maintain tariffs at low levels entail short and long-run political-economic costs and benefits. Empirical work examining the relationship between such commitments and the exercise of trade policy flexibilities is still relatively nascent, especially for emerging economies. This paper provides a rich, empirically-based assessment of ways that Turkey exercised trade policy flexibilities during the global economic crisis of 2008-11. First, and despite multilateral and customs union commitments that might limit changes to applied tariffs, Turkey made changes to both its applied Most Favored Nation and preferential tariffs that cumulatively affect nearly 9 percent of manufacturing imports and 10 percent of import product lines. Second, Turkey's cumulative application of temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies-antidumping, safeguards and countervailing duties-are estimated to impact by 2011 an additional 4 percent of imports and 6 percent of product lines. Other surprising results on Turkey's use of flexibilities include: extending the duration of previously imposed antidumping and safeguards beyond expected removal dates, removing one TTB policy over a set of products and immediately reapplying a different TTB policy, covering lengthy upstream and downstream segments of important industries, and deepening discriminatory preference margins already inherent in existing preferential trade agreements.

Antidumping --- Bindings --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging economies --- Free Trade --- Great Recession --- International Economics & Trade --- Safeguards --- Tariffs --- Temporary trade barriers --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy --- WTO

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This research estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1-2010:Q4 for the United States, European Union, and three other industrialized economies. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample provide evidence of three key relationships for the US and EU. Increases in domestic unemployment rates and real appreciations in bilateral exchange rates led to substantial increases in antidumping and related forms of import protection. Furthermore, economies historically imposed these bilateral import restrictions on trading partners going through their own periods of weak economic growth. Second, estimates from the pre-Great Recession model predict a major trade policy response during 2008:Q4-2010:Q4, given the realized macroeconomic shocks. New US and EU trade barriers were projected to cover up to an additional 15 percentage points of nonoil imports, well above the baseline level of 2-3 percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis. Third, re-estimating the model on data from the Great Recession period illustrates why the realized trade policy response differed from model predictions based on historical data. While exchange rate movements played an important role in limiting new import protection, the US and EU also "switched" from their historical behavior during the Great Recession and shifted new import protection toward trading partners experiencing economic growth and away from those that were contracting.

Antidumping --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Theory & Research --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- Safeguards --- Temporary trade barriers --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy --- Australia --- Canada --- South Korea --- US

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Armes nucléaires --- Non-prolifération nucléaire. --- Nuclear nonproliferation. --- Nuclear nonproliferation. --- Nuclear weapons --- Nuclear weapons --- Plutonium --- Plutonium --- Plutonium --- Plutonium --- nuclear energy --- nuclear weapons --- plutonium --- Sécurité --- Mesures. --- Safety measures. --- Safety measures. --- Gestion. --- Management. --- Storage. --- Storage. --- Nuclear fuels --- Safeguards. --- Nonproliferation. --- Stockpile --- Management --- Protection.

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This paper surveys political-economic research on the variety of instruments that governments use to conduct international trade policy. It presents key insights on the relationships between instruments such as tariffs, quotas, voluntary export restraints, and other nontariff barriers, as well as the ebb and flow of the national use of temporary trade barriers such as antidumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards. The survey examines trends in use of these trade policy instruments over recent history; and it reviews the major theoretical and empirical explanations behind, and interrelationships between, their uses. Finally, the paper highlights potential institutional impacts of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and subsequent World Trade Organization (WTO) on choice of policy instruments, as well as how multilateral, unilateral, and preferential tariff liberalization may introduce political-economic shocks and affect incentives over time for how governments rely on different instruments.

Antidumping --- Economic Theory & Research --- Free Trade --- Gatt --- International Economics & Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Quotas --- Safeguards --- Tariffs --- Temporary Trade Barriers --- Trade Agreements --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy --- Voluntary Export Restraints --- WTO