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This paper examines the micro and macro correlates of aid project outcomes in a sample of 3,821 World Bank projects and 1,342 Asian Development Bank projects. Project outcomes vary much more within countries than between countries: country-level characteristics explain only 10-25 percent of project outcomes. Among macro variables, country growth and the policy environment are significantly positively correlated with project outcomes. Among micro variables, shorter project duration and the presence of additional financing are significantly correlated with better project outcomes. In addition, the track record of the project manager in delivering successful projects is highly significantly correlated with project outcomes. There are few significant differences between the two institutions in the relationship between these variables and project outcomes.

Asian Development Bank --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Development Economics & Aid Effectiveness --- Housing & Human Habitats --- Poverty Monitoring & Analysis --- Project Success --- Rural Portfolio Improvement --- World Bank

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Effective management of development requires reliable feedback about the impact of ongoing and completed operations. This is the major goal of evaluation. Learning from development experiences calls for a well focused and well structured system of operations evaluation. The World Bank's operations evaluation organization has been in existence for more than two decades. It provides comprehensive information for management decisions at all levels and supports a continuing process of performance improvement. Closely linked to the project cycle and to policy reform, evaluation in the Bank incorporates contributions from borrowers, who are the owners of the operations that the Bank finances. Operations evaluation provides insights and recommendation of value to development practitioner both within and outside the Bank.

Banks and Banking Reform --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Portfolio Improvement

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The twenthieth Annual Review of Evaluation Results presents the salient findings of operational assessments carried out in 1993. The review draws on project completion reports for 318 operations, performance audits for 100 operations, and diverse evaluation and impact studies. It looks in particular at project outcomes, the sustainability of benefits, and the extent to which operations addressed the Bank's thematic objectives - reducing poverty, and protecting the environment and developing the private sector as a means to sustainable inputs in the living standards of the poor. The key underlying determinants of outcomes and sustainability are explored and suggestions for improving performance offered. The review furnishes evidence of a stabilizing trend in operational outcomes and of improving trends in such indicators as physical achievements, re-estimated rates of return, and cost and time variations. The review confirms that improvements in portfolio management and quality at entry would lead to improved results - including better outcomes, greater sustainability, and more effective achievement of thematic goals.

Banks and Banking Reform --- E-Business --- Environment --- Environmental Economics and Policies --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Rural Development --- Rural Portfolio Improvement

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A number of recent studies have empirically documented links between characteristics of World Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluated by the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. This paper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project. Such models perform better than self-assessments of project performance provided by World Bank staff during the implementation of the project. These findings are applied to the problem of predicting eventual Independent Evaluation Group ratings for currently active projects in the World Bank's portfolio.

Banks and Banking Reform --- Communities & Human Settlements --- Development Economics & Aid Effectiveness --- Development Objective --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Housing & Human Habitats --- IEG --- Independent Evaluation Group --- Investment Project Financing --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Monitoring & Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Predictive Performance --- Project Outcome Ratings --- Rural Development --- Rural Portfolio Improvement